A week of attacks on Israel, including rockets fired from Lebanon, Gaza and Syria, represents the manifestation of an Iranian strategy to confront Israel with multiple threats on different fronts. Although different groups may be behind the attacks from those places, these groups are likely all linked to Iran. The groups involved include Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others that may go by different or new names, but which are proxies of Tehran.
Iran has long sought to bring its conflict with Israel to the Jewish state’s borders. Its backing of Hezbollah and Hamas was key to that strategy over the decades.
For instance, Tehran supplies Hamas with financial support and also helped it develop longer-range rockets and a larger arsenal. Whereas Hamas rockets could once only travel a few kilometers, now they can reach most parts of Israel.
The Islamic Republic also supported Islamic Jihad, which is even more of an Iranian proxy than Hamas. The group not only has an arsenal thought to include thousands of rockets, but it has gunmen in the West Bank and its leadership often resides in Damascus.
Hezbollah: Iran's key ally in the multi-front war
Hezbollah is the largest of Iran’s key allies in the region. An organization with origins as far back as the 1980s, it was backed by the post-Shah then-new Islamic revolutionary regime of Tehran, and was able to build up a presence in Southern Lebanon.
The Lebanese terrorist group’s power has also grown exponentially since then. It not only has an arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets, but it has developed more sophisticated systems, such as precision-guided munitions. Along with Hamas, it also has drones that it has used to target Israel and to threaten energy exploration off the coast.
While Hamas has been mostly penned into Gaza since Israel’s withdrawal from the coastal enclave and the group’s victory in Palestinian elections, it now appears to be increasingly able to operate from Lebanon – with Hezbollah’s approval.
The fact that Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh flew to Lebanon on April 5, a day before 34 rockets were fired at Israel from there, shows how it has increased its presence. Hamas cannot fire rockets or operate from southern Lebanon without coordination with Hezbollah.
The rockets that were fired at Israel on April 6 were fired in broad daylight near Tyre. This is an area where Hezbollah has a presence. Last year, Hezbollah killed a UN Irish peacekeeper in Lebanon’s Al-Aqbieh north of Tyre. In May 2021, rockets were also fired at Israel from near the village of Seddiqine, also in the Tyre district.
Hezbollah has increased its operations abroad in recent years. This includes networks that stretch to West Africa and South America. The most important development is its operations in Syria, which began in 2012 in support of the Syrian regime. Hezbollah has moved forces to areas near the Golan, an area known as the group’s “Golan file,” according to reports from the Alma Research and Education Center, which covers threats in the North of Israel.
In 2019, Hezbollah even brought drones to this area to threaten the Jewish state. The threat was neutralized.
Other elements of Iran’s threats to Israel include militias in Syria and Iraq. These include the Iraqi-based Popular Mobilization Units and their factions such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Iran flew a drone into Israeli airspace from Iraq in May 2021. It also launched a drone at Israel last week from Syria.
Iran’s idea for a multi-front war is not new. It has been boasting in recent months about how Israel is internally collapsing, and it signaled that it wants to increase its threats. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Sunday that this year its power will grow compared to Israel’s. Jerusalem also carried out drills in May 2022 in preparation for the threat of a multi-front war. At the time, estimates said Israel’s adversaries could fire 1,500 rockets a day at the Jewish state.
The multi-front war is made possible by Iran’s entrenchment in Syria. In the past, it could threaten Israel using Hezbollah in Lebanon or Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza, and Hamas in Gaza. Israel has launched operations to neutralize the Jihad and Hamas threats in the past. Since last year, it has also been battling Jihad gunmen in Jenin and other Palestinian factions that are emboldened against the Jewish state.
Israel has generally tried to isolate these threats, or at least manage these conflicts. Overall, it has concentrated more heavily on the Iranian threat and containing Iranian entrenchment in Syria. This operation has been called the “War Between the Wars” campaign and it has gone on for several years, involving many airstrikes on sites in Syria. This has also involved larger operations such as Operation House of Cards in Syria in 2018. Islamic Jihad was also targeted there in November 2019.
Nevertheless, the Iranian threat has not gone away and its proxies and allies appear to have begun a multi-front conflict with Israel over the past week. This involved the Iranian drone operation on April 1, Gaza rocket fire from April 5-7 and 34 rockets fired at Israel from Lebanon on Passover, April 6. In addition, there was rocket fire from Syria on April 8 and 9. There were also shooting attacks in the West Bank and a drone launched from Gaza on April 3.
When one looks at the larger picture, the Iranian octopus of partners and groups is seeking to threaten Israel from multiple areas. This is also unprecedented in terms of the rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria over such a small period of time. In general, peace has prevailed along the Lebanese border since 2006. Now Iran is showing it can heat up any border using various groups whenever it wants to.
Rocket fire from Syria is an unprecedented escalation that is unique in its brazenness.
The Syrian regime has been working toward normalization in the region, particularly through outreach to the Persian Gulf and Egypt in recent months. However, the fact that rockets are fired from Syria, on the evening of April 8 and 9, as well as a drone launched from Syria on April 1 targeting Israel, illustrates that the regime is seeking normalization while it doesn’t rein in dangerous terrorist and militant groups.
Israel responded to the rocket fire from Syria on Sunday early in the morning. However, the importance of the rocket fire goes beyond just the rockets themselves or any response.
The Syrian regime was supposed to bring stability and quiet, but it appears that it has allowed terrorist groups to continue to operate openly and threaten others. This is not exactly news, since the regime has tolerated various Iranian-backed groups for years because those groups aided Syria in its civil war.
Syrian regime now playing a dangerous game
What is new is that the regime is now playing a dangerous game by not reining in the groups even as it poses as seeking normalization. Normalization would imply the regime controls its own territory. The regime cannot have it both ways, claiming to control its territory, but allowing attacks on other countries from its territory.
Syria’s regime leader Bashar al-Assad traveled to the UAE on March 19, a symbol of how he has gained new ties in the region. Syria’s foreign minister also went to Egypt on April 1. This was the first trip to Egypt since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. These are clear examples of Syria seeking normality in the region. With Iran and Saudi also doing reconciliation and talks to end the Yemen war taking place in Oman, clearly, the regime has an opportunity to mend its ways.
On the other hand, Iranian-backed groups in Syria carried out several attacks on US forces in eastern Syria in mid-March, and the US responded with airstrikes on March 23. The rocket fire targeting US troops in eastern Syria now looks similar to how Syria has enabled groups that targeted Israel on April 8-9. These incidents show how the regime continues to tolerate a plethora of armed groups, from Hezbollah to various militias backed by Iran, that undermine the regime’s own narrative of stability.
This was important because there were concerns that Syria would bring Hezbollah to the border with Israel and this would create an intolerable threat. In September 2017 reports said that a kind of “buffer zone” on the border could be created, with Russia involved, which would keep threats far from Israel’s border. Russian military police were initially deployed when the regime returned. In August 2018 the Russians were supposed to end up at several points near the border.
The rocket fire overnight on April 8 and 9 is a major escalation in terms of the Syrian front and also the ability of groups to operate from near the Golan and threaten Israel. This brings back memories of some of the chaos during the Syrian Civil War, when there were often threats and concerns about security along the Golan border. However, today the Syrian regime is not in the same spot that it was back in 2015 or 2016. The regime is now seeking to retake more parts of the country. Syria is working with Russia and in talks with Iran and Turkey.
Those talks continue to falter regarding Turkey’s withdrawal from northern Syria. However, the overall trend is clear. The regime wants to portray itself as in charge of the country. At the same time, the regime enables instability through the kinds of incidents like the rocket fire on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
No comments:
Post a Comment