Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has jolted Taiwan into confronting the specter of a sudden attack from the island’s own larger and more powerful neighbor: China.
The invasion has given new weight to the authoritarian vision of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who has long laid claim to self-governed Taiwan for the “rejuvenation” of China — much as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did with Ukraine. To many in Taiwan, Ukraine has been a lesson in the tactics and weaponry that could slow a more powerful invading force. It has also been a stark warning that the island may be inadequately prepared for a full-scale attack.
Taiwan’s defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed. Its president, Tsai Ing-wen, has vowed to defend the island, but she has struggled to impose a new strategic vision on the uniformed leadership.
Taiwan spends billions on fighter jets and submarines, yet its conscripts barely get enough ammunition for training. The mandatory military service is seen by many as too short, and the reservist program, insufficiently rigorous. The military is building a professional force, but has struggled to recruit and retain highly skilled soldiers.
Now, Ukraine has been an impetus for change.
When Wu Chiuan-syun, a computer engineer in Taipei, gathered with other army reservists in a dense, humid forest in central Taiwan in March, they trained longer and harder than soldiers like them had in recent years. Nearly every day, he said, his commanders would remind the men that the threat from China was growing.
“Ukraine showed us that you need to first show to others that you have the resolve to defend yourself; only then will others come and help,” Mr. Wu, 31, said.
Underlying Taiwan’s defense dilemma is a question left unanswerable by design: Will the United States send military forces to Taiwan’s aid? In May, President Biden suggested he would, but the United States offers no explicit security guarantees, a strategy it hopes will avoid either provoking Beijing or emboldening Taiwan to declare formal independence.
Mr. Xi has said he seeks a peaceful unification with Taiwan, and he may be deterred by the huge economic and diplomatic blowback China would suffer for an invasion. But China has also been pointed in its warnings. Its defense minister, Gen. Wei Fenghe, said over the weekend that Beijing would “fight to the very end” for Taiwan. It is sending fighter jets toward the island almost daily — including 30 aircraft in one day last month alone.
The concern is that such maneuvers could, intentionally or otherwise, be a prelude to conflict.
“We cannot wait; we are competing with time,” said Michael Tsai, a former defense minister of Taiwan. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine happened in an instant — who knows when the P.L.A. might choose to invade Taiwan.”
Taiwan Official Warns Supersonic Cruise Missile Can Strike Beijing
You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Assembly, or Yuan, gave a speech on Taiwan Overseas Network where he declared that the country’s domestically produced Yun Feng supersonic cruise missile is capable of reaching Beijing. The message follows ominous warnings made by Chinese military officials directly to their U.S. counterparts to avoid the Taiwan Strait, claiming it is not international waters. However, the United States, along with the vast majority of the international community, does not accept China’s claims in this regard. This also comes as U.S. President Joe Biden recently vowed to defend Taiwan amid a crisis, although the statement was walked back to a degree, leaving allies to question how a crisis could pan out.
In his speech, You encouraged the Chinese government to think twice before invading Taiwan, reminding them that the largely secretive Yun Feng supersonic cruise missile is a capability they won’t shy away from using. The speech also underscored a growing desire held by Taiwan to develop a more self-sufficient military-industrial complex for the country to more freely prepare for a potential conflict with China.
These ambitions are echoed by purported pressure from the U.S. governmenturging Taiwan to decrease its focus on some advanced weapons procurement programs in favor of less flashy but potentially more combat-relevant initiatives. You compared his aspirations to Ukraine’s will to defend its sovereignty throughout its war with Russia, insisting that Taiwan should not wait for China to invade and instead actively prepare for what may prove to be inevitable. Liberty Times Net writes of You's remarks:
You Xikun [Si Kun] mentioned that Taiwan's defense advantage is due to the natural dangers of the Straits. The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] must cross the Taiwan Strait to attack Taiwan, which is different from Russia's attack on Ukraine... If you want to land, you will fight on the beachhead. If the landing is successful, everyone in Taiwan must be as determined to die as Ukraine. Go out and never let China swallow Taiwan.
...
...Yunfeng missile can already hit Beijing, and Taiwan has the ability to attack Beijing. China must think twice before invading Taiwan.
Taiwan is reported to have begun discreetly developing the Yun Feng missile after the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, which started after a series of missile tests were conducted by the People's Republic of China. The goal of the tests was to send a message to the Republic of China (Taiwan) government headed by Lee Teng-hui whose strategy was beginning to shift away from the One-China policy, and the efforts were largely successful in agitating both Taiwan and the United States. In response, U.S. President Bill Clinton deployed a carrier battle group to the scene and a crisis was averted.
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