As Hezbollah heats up rhetoric over off-shore gas, how far will it take Lebanese maritime dispute?
In recent days, Hezbollah has stepped up threats to attack Israel’s offshore gas-drilling activities in the Karish gas field, off the coast of Haifa, due to an unresolved maritime border dispute between Israel.
Israel maintains that Karish is in its exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea, while Lebanon claims that the field is located in disputed waters. Israel has repeatedly called for United States-mediated negotiations to resolve the border issue. Talks began in 2020 but ended in 2021 after Lebanon refused to compromise its claim that its part of the border includes 1,400 square kilometers (540 square miles) of additional sea territory, which includes the Karish field.
On June 6, Hezbollah warned that it was ready to take military action against Israeli gas-production operations after the Greek-British Energean company sent a gas production ship to the area ahead of expected extraction work.
“When the Lebanese state says that the Israelis are assaulting our waters and our oil, then we are ready to do our part in terms of pressure, deterrence and use of appropriate means, including force,” said Hezbollah deputy secretary-general Sheikh Naim Qassem.
“The issue requires a decisive decision from the Lebanese state,” he added, saying that Hezbollah “urged the government to hurry up to set a deadline for itself.”
Qassem said the Iran-backed group would act “no matter the response,” even if it led to a broader conflict, according to the report.
On June 9, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah called Israeli gas activities in the area “provocations.”
Nasrallah said Israel should wait for the results of the negotiations and that any drilling that takes place before an agreement will be considered a direct assault on Lebanon, according to the Associated Press.
“All options are on the table,” he warned.
“Does Hezbollah have the ability to implement its threat and could the organization have the motivation and determination to hit the rig? The answer to the first question is apparently affirmative. Hezbollah has the proven ability to fire advanced shore-to-sea missiles to strike the rig. But the question of motivation is more complex,” said Ganor.
“I assess that Hezbollah understands that any strike on the Karish gas rig will lead to no less than war, including between Israel and Hezbollah, and the state that grants Hezbollah cover. Israel cannot contain such an attack and would extract a heavy price from Hezbollah. Hezbollah, in turn, cannot contain the Israeli reaction, and from here, the distance to full war is short,” he stated.
Such a war would cause Israel substantial damage, but it would be “catastrophic for Lebanon,” said Ganor. “It will also neutralize Hezbollah’s military arsenal that was built by Iran as a strategic deterrent against Israel. This is a price Iran would be unwilling to pay. Hence, I assess that Hezbollah will be very careful to avoid rolling a snowball down the mountain that it can very quickly lost control of.”
According to a report by Walla, the Israel Defense Forces in recent days have sounded the alert on the risk of Hezbollah “protesting” Israel’s decision to begin drilling for gas in the region, but cited military sources as assessing that “Hezbollah won’t go far at the start. We are ready for provocations.”
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