There are multiple signs that the pandemic is leveling off. Hastily constructed field hospitals in Oregon and New York were never filled, many hospitals are so empty staff is being laid off, and new treatments are being utilized successfully to cope with this unique virus.
There are indications that some of the fatalities are being attributed to the virus when they are not. Tongue in cheek, Jeffrey Satinover looks at these figures and remarks:
COVID-19 has proven to be a blessing in disguise, dramatically reducing deaths from a myriad of other conditions. The virus has apparently also targeted the seasonal flu, causing a dramatic reduction in influenza deaths as well.
Cathy Johnston Fasano, looking at the same figures, is even more (sarcastically) optimistic: “If ALL deaths are caused by CV, then as soon as we find a vaccine or even an effective treatment, no one will ever die again! Those people who've had it and recovered are ALREADY immortal!!!”
Hospitalization and mortality data are changing rapidly, and, as noted, are somewhat suspect, but "as of April 10, 2020 there are now 16,697 Americans who have died who had coronavirus… But this data is misleading because the most recent data shows that only .9% of deaths related to the coronavirus are related to individuals with no comorbidity (i.e. pre-existing conditions)."
Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.A final thought: What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.
As the great virus terror seems to subside, you can expect journalists to fail to understand that under federalism, governors of the various states are the main executives who mandate what steps are needed and the president can do little more than assist them in getting necessary information, materials and personnel. (Remember Katrina where they made that error? The mayor of New Orleans and the governor of Louisiana dropped the ball and -- coincidentally! -- the Republican president was tarred by the media with their failings.) Even the Democratic governors of California and New York, hardly Trump allies, publicly concede he did everything in his power to provide assistance.
Some states clearly have gone too far. In Mississippi, worshippers who attended a church service sitting in their cars with the windows rolled up and listening to their pastor on their car radios were fined. In New York a cop demanded a married couple sitting on a park bench near each other maintain six feet of distance even though they explained they were married and lived together. Not every gubernatorial diktat was smart nor was everyone hired to enforce it intelligent or reasonable.
The Wuhan virus appears to be peaking, both globally and in the U.S. The much-maligned University of Washington IHME model says that U.S. deaths should have peaked today, and are expected to decline hereafter. Given that model’s track record, no one is taking it to the bank. But it is an opportune moment to see where we stand today, in terms of fatalities, in the context of other diseases.
Worldwide, the COVID-19 fatalities add up to just under 20% of an average flu season. In the U.S., COVID-19 fatalities to date are 26% of the number that we suffered just two flu seasons ago. I am not sure why these numbers are not more widely known. They seem relevant to me.
Crudely speaking, if we assume that the U.S. is around 50% of the way through the COVID-19 epidemic, we might expect something like 33,000 fatalities, equal to an average seasonal flu year. An inevitable second round of infections after our governments finally let people go back to work, and out in public, may raise that number, but no one I know of has tried to guess to what extent. Still, any way you look at it, it is hard to see how COVID-19 deaths will exceed the flu fatalities we experienced two years ago. And that was barely a news story.
A final thought: What will happen when the catastrophic shutdown orders under which most of us have been living are finally lifted, in May or June? Since sheltering in place was only intended to delay the virus’s spread, not to prevent it, we should assume that COVID infection and death numbers will rise dramatically. But what if they don’t? Won’t that be strong evidence that the states’ extreme shutdown measures were not needed in the first place? Don’t expect any politicians to make the point, but I think the answer is Yes.
UPDATE: Last time I posted these numbers, I included a global fatality number that assumes China is vastly underreporting its deaths, as most believe. I will do that again: if China is underreporting by a factor of 10–i.e., the true Chinese number is 10 times the one being used by the WHO–then the current global fatality total is 26% of an average flu season, per the WHO.
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