China conducted war drills in the South China Sea this week as the COVID-19 pandemic terrorizes the US, forcing the Pentagon to divert its attention to the Homeland to manage the public health crisis that is unfolding rather than countering Beijing in the open seas.
Asia Times reports that in recent days China ramped up military drills and deployed military assets in the highly contested waters of the South China Sea, specifically in areas that are known to have massive fossil fuel reserves.
While some see China's nationalistic messaging as a bid to rally its people during difficult Covid-19 times, others view the increasingly aggressive naval maneuvers as a bid to exploit America's weakened condition to secure new advantage in the hot spot theater. -Asia Times
While China conducted maritime exercises, countries surrounding the South China Sea, who also have staked rights to the fossil fuel reserves in the contested waters, are in countrywide lockdowns enforced by their respective militaries. This is an instance where military assets of Western powers and allies are preoccupied in their own countries, as Beijing sails around the South China Sea uncontested.
Many people don't realize, the Chinese virus unleashed a nuclear bomb on America, but did not destroy any physical assets. Instead, it imploded the financial economy. And without China firing a shot, the US Navy has likely lost the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), a massive nuclear aircraft carrier stationed in Guam. At least 1,000 sailors have been evacuated from the vessel for fear of contracting the virus.
The virus is a giant distraction from the Pentagon's freedom of navigation missions that are used to counter China in the South China Sea. With most of its time and effort focused on fighting the virus on the Homeland and maintaining social order – America's power overseas diminishes.
The Western world is melting down over a virus outbreak. China didn't even have to fire one shot – as it now seizes this opportunity to increase its power in the South China Sea:
What started as a catastrophe for China is shaping up to be a moment of strategic opportunity, a rare turning point in the flow of history. Suddenly, the protests in Hong Kong, carrying a mortal threat to political stability in the mainland, became a physical impossibility. More important, the pandemic set in motion a global competition, to contain the virus, for which China and the Chinese Communist Party seem uniquely prepared.
As the virus spread to the whole world, it became apparent that Western societies — Beijing’s true rivals — did not have the ability to quickly organize every citizen around a single goal. As opposed to China, which remains to a large extent a revolutionary society, their political systems were built for normal times. Chinese society is a mobilized army, which can quickly drop everything else and march in one direction.
Mao once said, “Everything under heaven is in utter chaos, the situation is excellent.” And so it seems at present, as seen from Beijing. Chinese diplomats stationed all over the world spend their time raising the stakes to a dangerous level. Following instructions from the very top, they have taken to the media to issue a challenge to America, to point out its failure, and to compare the chaos in American cities and hospitals with what they see as a singular success in stopping the epidemic in China.
Forget about “mask diplomacy.” It is no more than a distraction. There are other ways for China to use the coronavirus pandemic to upturn the existing global order. I see three main levers.
The second lever resides with industrial value chains. Last month General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler closed all their automotive production plants across the United States and Canada. Other sectors have followed. In the meantime, China contained the worst of the pandemic to one province, allowing economic activity to quickly resume elsewhere. The most recent data show renewed activity in the flow of goods across the country, as well as at ports worldwide that do business with China. If the freeze in Europe and America continues for much longer, Chinese companies will be able to dramatically expand market share and replace Western-led value chains. Just yesterday Chinese authorities announced that manufacturing activity expanded in March, defying expectations of a contraction. In February the official Purchasing Managers’ Index hit a record low of 35.7. It bounced back to 52.0 in March. Prepare for a worldwide wave of Chinese acquisitions at knockdown prices.
Finally, in a more extreme scenario, important countries could experience the kind of economic shock that leads to widespread social and political collapse. At that point, China would have a unique opportunity to step in, provide aid, and refashion these countries in its image. It would look like a repeat of the Marshall Plan and the beginning of the American world order after the ravages of World War II. Indonesia, South Asia, and even Russia might be of special interest in such a scenario.
We knew that a generalized race or competition between alternative geopolitical models had started, but it was never clear what the background for such a competition would be. If the clash took place within the existing global trade and financial system, which was of course built according to Western rules and principles, the United States was confident the battle could be decisively won. But what if it took place on neutral ground? What if it took place in a kind of neutral landscape, a state of nature with few or no rules, against a chaotic and quickly evolving background? The outcome would become considerably more uncertain.
To put it more bluntly: There was always an argument that the existing world order cannot change because only a momentous war has done that in the past and world wars have become impossible. But in pandemics — and soon in climate change — we may have found two functional equivalents of war.
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