Monday, August 16, 2010

Iran vs Israel

The focus in the Middle East is now squarely on Iran, in this race to bring about the last days. With their reactor going on-line imminently, we see more and more attention to the inevitable conflicts in the region. Today is no different:

"Flap in Jerusalem over Aug. 21 activation of Iran's first reactor"

The sudden announcement in Moscow and Tehran on Aug. 11 that Russia is set to activate Iran's first nuclear power reactor by loading the fuel on Aug. 21 has caused a major flap in Israel in view of the military aspects of the plant. DEBKAfile's military sources report that only last week, high Israeli officials asked Washington for clarifications on the latest intelligence information that Moscow had decided to finally activate the Bushehr reactor after innumerable delays.

The White House called the Kremlin and was assured that President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minster Vladimir Putin stood by their pledge to President Barack Obama that the Russian-built nuclear plant would not go on line this year.

This pledge now proves worthless.Indeed, Rostratom director Sergei Kiryenko will attend the Bushehr launching ceremony.

Wow - shocking...We can't trust Russia. Somebody please tell the Obama administration - after believing that the rest of the world would be enthralled by the "Obama magic" just like the American Left - how surprising that Russia doesn't share the same worship of Obama. Rather, they are pursuing their own agenda. Wait, there is more:

Jerusalem is also worried by the news that Russia has stationed S-300 anti-missile batteries in Abkhazia on the Black Sea because it ties in with the imminent activation of the Bushehr reactor. It is taken as a signal that Israel's air route to Iran is hereby closed and Moscow will do its utmost to thwart an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

John Bolton, former US ambassador to the United Nations and adviser to the Bush administration, defined Moscow's date for loading nuclear fuel rods into the Iranian reactor as touching off a point of no return. Talking to Fox News Friday, Aug. 11, he said Aug. 21 is a deadline "by which Israel would have to launch an attack on Iran's Bushehr reactor before it becomes effectively 'immune' to assault."

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Ali Akbar Salehi said Friday, Aug. 13, "The process of loading fresh fuel into the reactor building would begin on Aug. 21. Then the reactor will be officially classified as a nuclear energy installation. The testing phase will be complete and the physical launch begin."

According to DEBKAfile's military sources, the Bushehr reactor billed as a peaceful project is in fact integral to Iran's military program because the fuel rods powering it can also produce weapons-grade plutonium. Attached to the main plant too are a number of smaller facilities connected to the weapons program.

Right on schedule, Caroline Glick weighs in and does her usual brilliant job:

"Guide to the Perplexed"

Israel's leaders are reportedly concerning themselves with one question today. Are there any circumstances in which US President Barack Obama will order the US military to strike Iran's nuclear installations before Iran develops a nuclear arsenal?

From Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu down the line, Israel's leaders reportedly raise this question with just about everyone they come into contact with. If this is true, then the time has come to end our leaders' suspense.

The answer is no.

Well, most of us could have told them that little bit of news...After determining that the U.S. will not become involved, she continues:

ALL OF these factors constitute overwhelming evidence that there are no conceivable circumstances under which Obama would order a US strike on Iran's nuclear installations to forestall Iran's development of nuclear weapons. And this reality should lead Israel's leaders to three separate conclusions.

First, and most urgently, Israel must attack Iran's nuclear installations. Iran's nuclear ambitions must be set back at least until 2017, the latest date at which a new -- and hopefully more rational -- US administration will certainly be in office.

After that, she reduces the article into this simple fact (quote below), which is met by this blogger with a huge AMEN!

Second, given the fact that the US will not take action against Iran's nuclear installations, there is no reason for Israel to capitulate to US pressure on lesser issues.

OK, this one is worth repeating:

Second, given the fact that the US will not take action against Iran's nuclear installations, there is no reason for Israel to capitulate to US pressure on lesser issues.

Now for the conclusions:

The Obama administration has nothing to offer Israel on this most important threat and so Israel should not do anything to strengthen its position. Among other things, this conclusion has clear implications for Jewish construction in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem, Israel's future responses to Lebanese aggression, as well as for Israel's continued cooperation with the UN probes of the Turkish-Hamas terror ship.

Finally, Obama's behavior is a clear indication that Israel was wrong to allow itself to become militarily dependent on US military platforms. Former defense minister Moshe Arens wrote recently that Israel should strongly consider abandoning plans to purchase the F-35 and restore the scrapped Lavi jetfighter to active development. Arens suggested that in doing so, Israel may find willing collaborators in the Indians, the French and even the Russians.

But polls aside, the answer to Israel's desperate queries is that it is up to us. If the Obama administration teaches us anything, it teaches us that we must rely first and foremost on ourselves.


George WIll also weighs in:

"Israel faces triple-prolonged threat to its existence"

The next several weeks should be very interesting. Will Israel attempt to attack these nuclear facilities? Will they sit by and watch the mechanism for their destruction reach completion? Will the U.S. get involved? Will Russia continue with their defense of Iran?

There is no telling where this will go. With almost any scenario envisioned, things seem to be reaching a climax.

Either way, we'll be watching closely. It can't be much longer - you can almost hear the footsteps of the Messiah.


Glenn said...

For what it's worth, I have this evening put in contingent orders to go long oil futures JUST IN CASE Israel does attack this week. Everyone reading this should know what will happen to oil prices should Israel launch an attack.

Anonymous said...
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Scott said...

Thats probably a good idea regardless of what happens this week. At some point in the future oil will skyrocket IMO.

Expected Imminently said...

Glenn and Scott
I interpret you to mean 'keep your tank filled up'?

I keep warning my boys and hubby, but its gone on for so long they don't take me seriously. I am off shopping presently, and will make sure I fill my tank.
Thanks for the reminder.