JONATHAN TOBIN/
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the terms laid down for ending the war in Gaza and freeing the hostages, which included both an Israeli withdrawal to agreed-upon lines inside the Strip as well as a painful release of imprisoned terrorists with blood on their hands.
But aside from releasing the living hostages and presumably also the bodies of slain captives they've been holding, it's far from clear that Hamas has any intention of fulfilling the rest of the demands put upon them by Trump, including disarming and giving up their control of Gaza. That's despite the fact that those points were essential to getting Israel to agree to ending its offensive into Gaza City aimed at wiping out the remnants of the terrorists' forces.
Instead, we're told that Hamas's surrender will only come about as part of negotiations that have been put off so as not to have them interfere with the achievement of the hostages' release. That was the upshot of an interview with the prime minister of Qatar published in The New York Times the day before the hostage release.
Many observers have assumed that the hostages were the only leverage that Hamas still had in negotiations with Israel and the United States. But it's clear now that this might be wrong. Perhaps with the prodding of their Qatari funders and allies--who have, with the help of Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner, wormed their way into Trump's good graces--the terrorists have realized that their cruel insistence on holding onto the hostages was actually an impediment to their potential survival.
How is that possible? It's simple. The advantage that Hamas now holds is twofold.
One is that Trump is eager, even desperate, for the ceasefire to hold to keep playing the role of the world's leading peacemaker. That is a title he will lose if, as he has also promised, he will give the green light to Israel to "obliterate" Hamas if it fails to disarm and give up control in Gaza.
It needs to be stated that Trump deserves enormous credit for the release of the hostages and the ceasefire. Only an American president who was prepared to lay down terms for the war's end that mandated both the elimination of Hamas and the immediate freedom of all the captives could have done it. And that's exactly what Trump did, in stark contrast to his predecessor, President Joe Biden, who was more interested in appeasing supporters of Hamas than in liberating Gaza from Islamist control. In this way, Trump seemed to reconcile two goals that had seemed mutually exclusive: the freedom of the hostages and the eradication of the terrorists.
In his statements in the last week and those made in his speech to the Knesset after flying to Israel to be on hand to witness and take justified credit for the hostage release, he spoke as if he had not only solved the riddle of how to end the post-Oct. 7 war. He also seems to think that this agreement will allow the revival of the 2020 Abraham Accords--the signature foreign-policy achievement of his first term--and that this will lead to peace breaking out throughout the Middle East. He even mentioned the possibility of a peace deal with the Islamist regime in Iran.
The conflict isn’t over
We should all pray that he's right about the prospects for peace. Still, the odds are--notwithstanding assurances from Qatar--that the conflict with the Palestinians and Hamas is far from over. So long as Palestinians, whether supporters of Hamas or the supposedly more "moderate" Fatah Party that runs the corrupt Palestinian Authority, still believe that their national identity is inextricably linked to a war on the Jews and Zionism, all the Trumpian optimism in the world won't matter.
Hamas is doubtless counting on Trump not being willing to admit that the peace he seeks is likely to require continued fighting until the last Hamas operatives have disarmed, fled or been killed. If the talks stall as Hamas digs in its heels, will the president be willing to be smeared as the fomenter of Palestinian "genocide" and to give up the praise that he's gotten for brokering a deal from many of even his most bitter political opponents?
Those who want a Middle East free of Islamist terror, let alone a secure Israel or a Palestinian political culture freed of its obsessions with destroying Israel, should hope that he's sufficiently tough-minded to stick to his insistence that the terms of the deal are non-negotiable. But the Qataris will likely be urging him to demand that the Jewish state not restart the war under any circumstances, even if Hamas doesn't disarm.
After the hostage release, we should all be prepared for the international community, as well as Qatar and those Americans over whom it exerts some influence, to begin beating the drums again for a process that will lead to a Palestinian state. Trump and most of the Arab states may not actually want that. But it is far from certain that their commitment to a Hamas-free Gaza is greater than their desire to maintain a ceasefire, no matter what the terrorists do.
What's more, flouting a Trump diktat for Israel to hold its fire in the same way that Netanyahu ignored Biden's demands to halt the war at various points during 2024, with Hamas in a far stronger position, is something that the prime minister would be reluctant to do under any circumstances. And after the joy and gratitude of the Israeli people that is being showered upon Trump now that the hostages are freed, it may be impossible.
If so, then what will happen in Gaza in the coming weeks and months will be a reassertion of Hamas control, with the Islamist group looking to rearm and use the large part of the tunnel system underneath the Strip that was not destroyed during the war to dig in, much as they did in the years before Oct. 7.
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