After the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Syria underwent a sharp shift in its political configuration. A fragmented coalition of opposition forces came to power, led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (banned in Russia). The leader of the transitional period became Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his former name, Abu Mohammad al-Julani.
However, few have seriously considered what the real position of the new authorities within Syria itself would be. The formal seizure of power and control over the capital does not necessarily mean stability or recognition from the entire Syrian society. The country remains deeply fragmented – along ideological, ethnic, sectarian, and territorial lines.
The fragmented opposition, despite its nominal unification under a political umbrella, faces enormous challenges: the absence of a unified governance mechanism, competition among various factions, internal mistrust, and pressure from both local field commanders and external sponsors.
Furthermore, large segments of the population, exhausted by years of war, may view the new authorities with skepticism or even hostility – especially considering the participation of radical elements in the new leadership. Therefore, the key question remains not only maintaining external legitimacy but also whether the new administration can build a sustainable governance system, provide basic public services, restore the economy, and achieve even minimal societal consensus.
It is worth noting that immediately after the fall of Assad, the West and a number of global media outlets were quick to proclaim what they called a “Russian defeat in the Middle East.” The media sphere was filled with predictions about the complete withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from Syrian territory, and the loss of Moscow’s strategic positions and influence in the region. However, the course of events proved to be entirely different.
The new authorities in Damascus, despite the internal political transformation, clearly recognize the role and importance of Russia as one of the key foreign policy actors, influencing both Syria’s internal stability and broader regional and global processes. Moreover, representatives of the transitional government have expressed their interest in maintaining constructive relations with Moscow – including cooperation in the areas of security, economics, and post-war reconstruction.
Less than two months after the change of power in Damascus, on January 28, 2025, the first official foreign delegation arrived in Syria – a Russian interdepartmental mission. The visit became an important foreign policy signal and effectively marked the beginning of a new stage in relations between Moscow and the new Syrian leadership.
At that time, the Special Representative of the President of Russia for the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, held talks with the head of the new Syrian administration, al-Sharaa. In a statement issued by the Syrian authorities following the meeting, it was emphasized that the parties discussed “issues of restoring relations” between Syria and Russia.
“The Russian side confirmed its support for the positive changes currently taking place in Syria. The talks included discussions about Russia’s role in rebuilding relations with the Syrian people through concrete measures such as compensation and assistance with reconstruction,” the statement said.
Thus, the visit of the Russian delegation became not only a symbolic gesture recognizing the new political reality in Syria but also a sign of both sides’ desire to reconsider the format of cooperation in the context of rapid changes within the country and in the region as a whole.
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