Friday, July 11, 2025

Russia’s new deterrence weapon


Forget nukes. This is Russia’s new deterrence weapon


Why Russia doesn’t need to go nuclear to make its point – and how Oreshnik makes that clear

Just before dawn on November 21, 2024, a fireball streaked across the sky over the Dnieper River. It wasn’t a meteor. It wasn’t a drone.

The explosion that followed – precise, deep, and eerily silent on the surface – tore through the massive Yuzhmash defense facility in southeastern Ukraine. Footage of the strike spread within hours, picked apart by open-source analysts and intelligence services alike. But it wasn’t until Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed it that the world had a name for what it had witnessed:

Oreshnik – a new kind of Russian ballistic missile.

Capable of reaching speeds above Mach 10, surviving reentry temperatures of 4,000C, and delivering kinetic force that rivals tactical nuclear weapons, the Oreshnik isn’t just fast. It’s different.

In less than a year, it has moved from classified prototype to serial production, with confirmed plans for forward deployment in Belarus by the end of 2025. 

Its emergence suggests that Russia is rewriting the rules of strategic deterrence – not with treaty-breaking escalation, but with something quieter, subtler, and potentially just as decisive.

So what exactly is the Oreshnik missile? Where did it come from, what are its capabilities – and how might it reshape the battlefield?

RT explains what’s known so far about Russia’s latest breakthrough in non-nuclear strategic weaponry.

How the Oreshnik works

The missile that struck the Yuzhmash facility in Dnepropetrovsk (known in Ukraine as Dnipro) left behind no scorched landscape, no flattened perimeter. Instead, analysts examining satellite imagery noted a narrow impact zone, structural collapse below ground level, and almost surgical surface disruption. It wasn’t the scale of destruction that stood out – it was its shape.

This signature pointed to something new. According to available data and expert observations, the Oreshnik carries a cluster-type penetrative warhead, likely composed of multiple high-density submunitions. The detonation occurs only after the payload burrows into its target – a design meant to maximize internal damage to hardened military infrastructure.

Putin has stated that Oreshnik’s warheads can withstand reentry temperatures up to 4,000C. To survive such heat and remain stable at terminal speed, the payload would need to be encased in advanced composite materials – likely drawing on recent developments in heat-resistant ceramics and carbon-carbon structures used in hypersonic glide vehicles.


One of the defining features of the system is its ability to maintain hypersonic velocity during the final phase of flight. Unlike traditional ballistic warheads that decelerate as they descend, Oreshnik reportedly retains speeds exceeding Mach 10, possibly Mach 11, even in dense atmospheric layers. This enables it to strike with massive kinetic energy, increasing penetration and lethality without requiring a large explosive charge.

At such speeds, even a non-nuclear warhead becomes a strategic weapon. A concentrated high-velocity impact is enough to destroy command bunkers, radar sites, or missile silos. The weapon’s effectiveness doesn’t rely on blast radius, but on precise, high-energy delivery. That makes it both harder to detect and harder to intercept.

In doctrinal terms, Oreshnik represents a new category: A non-nuclear strategic ballistic missile. It occupies the space between conventional long-range strike systems and nuclear ICBMs – with enough reach, speed, and impact to alter battlefield calculations, but without crossing the nuclear threshold.

“This weapon has proven itself extremely effective in combat conditions, and in a very short time,” 

The speed of this transition – from battlefield debut to mass production – is notable. It suggests that both the missile system and its supporting infrastructure had been maturing quietly in the background, likely building off earlier research conducted under the RS-26 program.

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