The Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah is increasingly facing a crossroads. More than six months after it agreed to a ceasefire with Israel in November 2024, it has seen itself continually weakened in Lebanon. It faces not only continued Israeli airstrikes but also political pressure in Lebanon.
This is unprecedented. The group is facing calls to disarm. Hezbollah was always able to get around these calls over the years by claiming it was “resisting” Israel. However, the Iranian “axis of resistance” is now broken up and weakened as well. The Assad regime fell in December 2024, partly as a result of Hezbollah’s drubbing in the war with Israel. Iran was also handed a defeat in June, in a 12-day war with Israel.
What is left for the Hezbollah friends and allies club? Hamas is weakened. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad group is also not very strong and has lost its headquarters in Damascus. The Houthis are far away in Yemen. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are still strong but also encircled.
Hezbollah kept its weapons in the past by getting around various peace deals and ceasefires. For instance, when the Saudis helped end the Lebanese Civil War at meetings in Taif in 1989, Hezbollah kept its weapons and grew stronger as a result. Other factions put down their arms, such as the Christian militias. Hezbollah stockpiled.
After Israel left Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah grew even more assertive. It attacked Israel in 2006, and even though there was UN Resolution 1701 that was supposed to see the group withdraw from southern Lebanon, instead, Hezbollah grew exponentially stronger from 2007 to 2023. In 2008, for instance, Hezbollah attacked opponents in Beirut. Later, it prevented a new Lebanese president from being elected. Hezbollah came to control Lebanon’s military policy and foreign policy and also its politics. It intervened in Syria in 2012.
Now, Hezbollah is weaker. Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem stressed this weekend that the “resistance” will not accept continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon, affirming that the resistance is ready to confront the enemy, according to the pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar media in Lebanon. Hezbollah asks: "Is there anyone with a mind and the right mindset who can eliminate their own strengths while Israel fails to implement the agreement and continues its attacks?"
Qassem is now complaining that Lebanon is not defending Hezbollah from Israel. "Do you imagine we will remain silent forever? That's not true. You have tested us. When we are given a choice, we have only one option: dignity,” Hezbollah’s leader says.
Hezbollah is putting on a brave face, claiming that it will endure and that the era of American hegemony in the Middle East will pass. Hezbollah clearly blames the US and Israel for its predicament.
Hezbollah is also now under pressure from other parties in Lebanon. Walid Jumblatt, the powerful Druze leader, has said his party will hand over its weapons to the state. The message is that Hezbollah must hand over its arms as well. In the past, it has refused to do so. Now, a turning point may be coming.
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