With Israeli forces in daily action in Gaza and south Lebanon, and intermittent drone and missile attacks continuing from Iraq and Yemen, one front in the regional conflict currently underway has tended to be ignored: Syria.
Yet the available evidence shows that Israeli strikes against Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have increased significantly over the last two months.The individuals targeted in Syria have included veteran and prominent leaders and operatives of the Iran-led regional axis.
At the same time, reports in regional media have appeared in recent weeks portraying Syrian President Bashar Assad as a weak link in the Iranian-led war effort.
These reports suggest that the Syrian leader is trying to distance himself from his Iranian ally and move closer to moderate Arab states. Some Israeli Syria-watchers concur with this assessment.
So what is going on in Israel’s most significant northern neighbor, and where may things be headed?
It is important to remember that the civil war that began in Syria in 2012 has not concluded. Rather, the fighting lines have become frozen, leading to a de facto partition of the country.
After a sorting-out period, Syria has since 2019 been divided into three de facto entities: the regime-controlled area, encompassing around 60% of the country’s territory including Damascus and the entire coastal area; the area controlled by the Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Administration of North-East Syria (AANES), which comprises around 30% of Syria; and a Turkish-guaranteed Sunni Islamist enclave in the northwest, holding 10% of the country’s territory.
The continuation of this arrangement depends on the willingness of international players to underwrite these areas of control: regime Syria is today a protectorate of Iran and Russia, the US guarantees the survival of the Kurdish-dominated area, and Turkey is the sponsor and controller of the Sunni Islamist area.
Assad does not enjoy undisputed territorial control even over the area nominally under his rule. His army is weak and impoverished. He depends on Iranian and Russian support for his survival.
As a result, the patrons are today the senior partners. In practice, this means that the Iranians and their militia proxies are today in control of the southeastern border crossing between Iraq and Syria at Albukamal, and the roads leading westward. Assad’s army enters this area only with Iranian permission.
Southern Syria is thus a link in the chain of contiguous Iranian control stretching from Iran across Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the Mediterranean.
Israel professes no particular interest in Assad either way, except insofar as his forces seek to facilitate, assist, or defend the Iranian weapons trail from Iraq to Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon.
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