Since the Jan. 28 drone attack on Tower 22 in Jordan and the Nov. 19, 2023 seizure of the M/V Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea, a routinized normalcy of air and missile strikes by mainly U.S. forces has developed. Normalcy and routine can’t be found in Clausewitzian principles or Sun Tzu’s writings.
Normalcy and routine are the antithesis of “offense” and “momentum”—key elements of Clause-Tzuian tenets. “They hit us a bit, we hit them back a bit” isn’t a roadmap or strategy to a positive end state. There are multiple instruments of national power to leverage in the achievement of national objectives.
When an administration has no clearly stated objectives and declines to use the full spectrum of diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement (DIMEFIL) instruments of national power, a morass of endless conflict develops with no rudder or purpose.
Normalcy and routine are deadly for deployed American forces. Iranian-backed elements are hitting new U.S. camps that have been made public. The Iranian proxy attack on Tower 22 was the first to bring to general public knowledge the constellation of base camps that the Biden team reopened after the Trump administration used these base camps to defeat ISIS, eliminate Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and make a dramatic teaching point with Qasem Soleimani. Very recently, U.S. Forces have used drones to kill a senior commander of Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia accused of the attack on Tower 22 and other U.S. base camps.
There’s a basic question of causal analysis to ask when studying the Iranian attacks. Would the current dysfunctional government of Iran exist if Kata‘ib Hezbollah didn’t exist? The answer is yes. Would Kata’ib Hezbollah exist if the current dysfunctional government of Iran didn’t exist? The answer is probably not, or at least Kata’ib Hezbollah would be a whisper of what it is, deprived of most of its resources.
Houthis Continue Assault on Merchant Shipping
Meanwhile, on a scope and scale not seen in almost 80 years, ship after ship is being attacked in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean. The U.S. Navy has performed heroically and has swatted down every drone or missile deemed a threat. Very recently, the USS Gravely reportedly had to resort to its close-in weapons system (CIWS) to destroy one Houthi cruise missile that got through the outer layer defenses. CIWS isn’t perfect nor all-aspect, but it worked this time. Next time, the aspect of the CIWS may not be pointing in the right direction.
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