Ukraine War: What Happens Next?

Ukraine War: What Happens Next?

Via Mercola

Story at-a-glance

• Lex Fridman interviews John Mearsheimer, an international relations scholar at the University of Chicago, about how the war in Ukraine may end
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• In the best-case scenario, Mearsheimer predicts a ceasefire leading to a frozen conflict
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• In the event of a frozen conflict, Mearsheimer believes it will be unstable, with Ukrainians attempting to weaken Russia’s position and Russians “going to great lengths” to damage Ukraine and sow dissension within the alliance
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• Mearsheimer states that if the U.S. continues to interfere in the war, the answer to whether the conflict will be solved “is definitely no … You have to get the Americans out”
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• Mearsheimer believes there’s a “sliver of a chance” to work out the war, but to get there Ukraine has to become neutral and completely sever all security ties with the West

In the video above, Lex Fridman interviews John Mearsheimer, an international relations scholar at the University of Chicago, about how the war in Ukraine may end. Mearsheimer isn’t optimistic.

Since the war began in February 2022, about 500,000 Ukrainian and Russian troops have been killed or wounded,1 along with more than 9,600 civilian deaths in Ukraine.2 Meanwhile, according to official aid trackers, the U.S. has sent $76.8 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as of the end of July 2023.3,4 The European Union contributed another $85.1 billion in that same timeframe.5

Not only may corruption may be a primary driver of this war, it may be unwinnable. “I don’t think there’s any real prospect of a meaningful peace agreement,” Mearsheimer said. “I think it’s almost impossible. I think the best you can hope for at this point is at some point the shooting stops. You have a ceasefire and then you have a frozen conflict.”6

In the event of a frozen conflict, Mearsheimer believes it will be unstable, with Ukrainians attempting to weaken Russia’s position and Russians “going to great lengths” to damage Ukraine and sow dissension within the alliance, “and that includes in terms of Transatlantic relations,” he says … “The potential for escalation there will be great. So, I think this is a disaster.”7

When Fridman asks Mearsheimer if he believes it’s possible for the two leaders to sit down and work it out, he quickly says, “I think the answer is no.” Fridman then says, “Even with the United States involved … three people in the room?” To which Mearsheimer responds, “If the United States is involved, the answer is definitely no … You have to get the Americans out … the Americans are a real problem.”9

Mearsheimer goes back to the start of the war, when the two sides were negotiating in Istanbul. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was acting as the mediator, and progress was being made, according to Mearsheimer, until the U.S. and Britain stepped in:10

U.S. meddling in the Ukraine conflict reveals that it is not willing to relinquish its imperialistic tendencies. But censorship has silenced any open discussion that goes against the official narrative on the war in Ukraine.

Russia has long been very clear about the fact that it will not allow Ukraine to join NATO, for the simple fact that it would place a NATO military presence right on its border. Russia wants Ukraine to remain an independent “buffer zone” between itself and NATO countries.

Mearsheimer believes there’s a “sliver of a chance” to work out the war, but to get there, he says, two things have to be done:13

“One is Ukraine has to become neutral and it has to completely sever all security ties with the West. It’s not like you can say, ‘We’re not going to expand NATO to include Ukraine but we’re going to continue to have some loose security arrangement with Ukraine.’ None of that. It has to be completely severed — Ukraine has to be on its own.

And No. 2, Ukraine has to accept the fact that the Russians are going to keep the four oblasts that they’ve now annexed and Crimea. The Russians are not going to give them back. And what you really want to do if you’re Zelensky, or whoever’s running Ukraine in this scenario that we’re positing, is you want to make sure the Russians don’t take another four oblasts to include Kharkiv and Odessa, right?

If I’m playing Putin’s hand, and this war goes on, I’m thinking about taking four more oblasts. I want to take about 43% of Ukraine and an exit to Russia, right? And I certainly want Odessa and I certainly want Kharkiv, and I want the two oblasts in between.”

But Mearsheimer stresses that if they can talk about cutting a deal now, “you may be able to head that kind of aggression off at the pass, and limit Putin and Russia to annexing the four oblasts that they’ve already annexed, plus Crimea. “That’s the best I think you can hope for,” he says, but that also requires concessions from Ukraine:14

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