How Big The Suez/Houthi Gambit Is

Luongo: No One Has Really Grokked How Big The Suez/Houthi Gambit Is

Tom Luongo

We’ve had a lot of foreshadowing of the Suez Canal being a major hotspot for conflict over the past couple of years. Think back to the Evergreen beaching itself in the canal in 2021. Everyone is just now waking up to the idea that global shipping is at risk here.

This Twitter thread  is representative of the level of analysis being put forth by people still in love with the US Navy’s ability to force project around the world. He’s just waking up to the importance of this situation but he hasn’t picked up on the nuance of it from the other side of the battlefield.

This Red Sea situation is very very bad. And while the best person to consult is a logistician, I want to take a laymans stab at it.

Currently, container ships are being attacked regularly with anti ship missiles and drones via the Houthi's(Iranian Proxies in Yemen). The USS…

The October Setup

So, here’s the backdrop for Davos and the US/UK:

Now, if you are a cornered old money globalist oligarch with your finger on the pulse of these events…

Then, you are seeing:

1. The project in Ukraine hanging by a thread as European and American support wanes at every level just below the unelected leadership.

2. The ECB failing to hold the line on rising bond yields to stave off a banking crisis.

3. US Yield Curve blowing out on the long end, giving Yellen no good options for funding the current budget deficit or for rolling over existing debt, much of which is due in 2024.

4. German state elections deeply embarrass the ruling coalition in Hesse and Bavaria as well as the CDU/CSU who lost significant votes to Alternative for Germany (AfD) in CSU stronghold Bavaria.

5. Polish elections forcing the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) out of power despite tough words about Ukrainian refugees and shaking Germany down for WWII reparations.

6. The BRICS adding five nations which give them control over major trade routes into and out of Europe, including, but not limited to, the Suez Canal.

7. The US geopolitical position in the Middle East degrading as Saudi Arabia sides with Russia and Iran on every issue.

8. Iran becoming an integral partner in the burgeoning Asian integration on trade and policy.

Would you not conclude that time had run out, and upsetting the game board in some major way was your best, if not only, move?

Now, from the other side we have the following circumstances:

So, if you’re Iran and you see:

1. Weak US leadership in Biden and a vacant speaker

2. Support for Ukraine failing rapidly.

3. The Arab oil states standing firm with Russia athwart US/EU sanctions.

4. China investing in Syria’s reconstruction.

5. Turkey openly attacking US-backed Kurdish SDF forces over Syrian oil fields.

6. A cynical landgrab by Azerbaijan to break up the International North-South transport corridor in Armenia

7. Russia returning to the European gas market via Turkey

8. Increased influence regionally having re-opened diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

Wouldn’t you do something to upset the status quo and force a choice on the US but also the rest of the Arab world?

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