Based on information shared with me by Russian journalists who also have been trying to figure out the mischaracterization of Prigozhin’s protest as an “armed uprising,” which they know to be absolute nonsense, I can add to the truthful account I have provided.
As is apparent, the alleged “armed uprising” has not resulted in any punishment of the alleged insurgents. Instead it seems to be a cover for Putin to shift the Wagner Group and its leader to Belarus where installations are being built to accommodate Russia’s best fighting force.
Russian journalists are being reminded that the Wagner Group was originally created as a force for Russia to use abroad for which the Kremlin could claim a lack of connection. For example, should Putin decide to eliminate the US presence in Syria, where the Americans are stealing Syria’s oil, Putin could turn the task over to Wagner and say that they were mercenaries hired from another country by President Assad of Syria.
My informants say that Russia’s destruction of Ukraine’s military capability means the Wagner troops are no longer needed in Ukraine and less capable Russian Army troops can take their place. Some of my informants are suspicious of the account they have been given of the purpose of relocating the Wagner Group in Belarus, which is the Wagner fighters are to be redeployed to Africa to protect Russian-friendly African governments from American color revolutions. They point out that for all practical purposes agreements between Belarus and Russia have united the two countries, and they operate under the same military command structure. Placing Prigozhin’s troops in Belarus shortens the distance to Kiev, making Zelensky’s capital easy to seize. Also the Wagner troops could be used to seal the Polish border with Ukraine or the Western border of Ukraine.
In other words, if Putin finds Russian nationalist pressures to end the conflict victoriously too firm to continue ignoring, he has put in place forces to do the job.
Russian journalists tell me that another possible use of the “mutiny” is to quieten Putin’s Russian nationalists critics. As far as I can tell, no one inside or outside Russia, except Putin, knows why he has tolerated a never-ending conflict that ever-widens and becomes more dangerous. Some of my informants say that Putin believes the West cannot stand the continuation of a conflict in which their weapons and money has meant no difference to the outcome and when the Western countries are all suffering economic dislocations from the American sanctions. They say Putin believes that Washington has destroyed its power by undermining the dollar’s role as reserve currency. Consequently, Putin, who does not want to be known as an invader or a conquerer putting the Russian Empire back together, is content to butt-sit and wait on the collapse of the West.
My response is that this is an astute position. However, it overlooks how the American neoconservatives interpret it. They see Putin’s butt-sitting as inability to win, as weakness and a lack of confidence, and this emboldens them to press Putin with more provocations. The danger as I see it is that at some point, possibly very soon, the provocations will ignite nuclear war.
I stick to my point of the past 18 months that to reduce the likelihood of nuclear war, Putin must quickly bring the Ukraine conflict to an end in Russia’s favor. Then turn his back on the West and get on, together with China, India, and Iran, building bridges with the nonwestern world.
To be clear, my informants are the Russian journalists who have been interviewing me for many years. I and they take no side in the conflict. As I answer them honestly, I have said that I expect my questions to be honestly answered. I do not think that they know with any more certainty than I do what is the actual situation. But I have got to know them, and I do believe that they share with me their own beliefs based on what they are able to find out.
What is so remarkable is the difficulty of figuring out what is going on and where it is likely to end.
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