Naval and air forces from China's People's Liberation Army and Russia's Pacific Fleet have just completed four days of exercises in the Sea of Japan. New exercises will now occur out in the Pacific Ocean.
These exercises are designed to do more than send a message to the U.S. and its allies over Taiwan. They are designed to enable better combat cooperation between China and Russia in war. Underlining that point, many of the forces deployed were anti-submarine warfare specialists in nature. Their number included three Russian anti-submarine warships and the PLA's Z-20 anti-submarine helicopter. Though they have not said so, Russia and the PLA may have also deployed submarines for the exercise.
Still, the submarine point is the key.
Beijing is well aware that the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. The PLA has significantly strengthened its surface warfare forces in recent years, churning out excellent warships such as the Type-055 air defense destroyer. The PLA's long-range anti-ship ballistic missile forces and its scaled-up air, naval, and space-based capabilities would also challenge the U.S. in any war over Taiwan. That said, U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side. That thorn demands China's attention. After all, most U.S. military officers and intelligence analysts believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is significantly more likely than not to occur by 2030. President Joe Biden has said four times now that he would order a U.S. military intervention against China in such a scenario.
Yet, in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the PLA would have to prioritize the detection and defeat of U.S. attack submarines operating around the island.
The mission of these U.S. Virginia- and Los Angeles-class attack submarines, and at least one of the Navy's two Seawolf-class submarines, would be to destroy PLA troop transports crossing the Taiwan Strait. The submarines would also target PLA warships seeking to deny area access to other U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and U.S. Air Force assets attempting to operate near Taiwan and regional choke points. And while China would have major advantages in a war against the U.S. and Taiwan, considering that the Taiwan Strait is 80-plus miles in length, the PLA's ability to successfully contest U.S. submarines is crucial.
The Russian navy can offer the PLA very valuable institutional knowledge about U.S. submarine forces. The Russian navy has a long Cold War experience, now re-emphasized in the Atlantic Ocean, of submarine cat-and-mouse games with the U.S., British, and French navies. The Russians know far better than the Chinese how, where, and to what capacity U.S. submarine forces operate and on what missions they are/would be employed. This is an area where Vladimir Putin can provide outsize value to Xi Jinping. As Putin endures international isolation and growing domestic threats over the war in Ukraine, he needs Xi's support now more than ever.
There's another advantage for Putin in this political regard. Consider that these Sino-Russian naval exercises occur close to Japanese territorial waters. In large part that's because Xi is concerned by major defense boosts introduced by Japan. Xi wants to deter Prime Minister Fumio Kishida from joining any U.S. defense of Taiwan if war ever comes. Chinese state media emphasized that point on Monday, warning that "if Tokyo makes the wrong choices, it will undoubtedly pay an unbearable price." At the margin, Russia's joining of Chinese threats to Japan makes those threats more potent.
Would Russia join a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or military efforts to sustain that invasion?
It's unclear. But the "no limits partnership" between Moscow and Beijing means it cannot be ruled out. What is clear, however, is that Sino-Russian naval cooperation is increasingly intimate. A number of PLA warships involved in the exercise have now docked at Russia's Pacific Fleet headquarters in Vladivostok. Other Sino-Russian forces are now heading further out into the Pacific.
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