The idea of nukes in Ukraine has generated a lot of discussion about what that would mean. And with good reason. Nuclear weapons aren't like a bullet coming out of a gun. The effects of nukes tend to stick around. While the average American is most certainly concerned about this, they're asking this: "How does a nuke in Ukraine impact the United States?"
Will Russia use nuclear weapons? Could nuclear fallout from Kiev reach America? And would Americans have to shelter in place?
Let's dive deeply into these questions to see if we can't find answers.
If we want to answer any of these questions, we first have to understand a bit about Russia's various nuclear weapons. While this is not a comprehensive list of every type of nuke available to them and the means of deployment, this will give us a good bird's eye view of some of the major players.
Russian Sea-Based Nuclear Weapons
While Russia can launch nukes from various naval vessels, perhaps the most concerning of these nukes, the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, is only launched via submarine (mainly via the Belgorod, though there are three other Poseidon-capable Russian submarines in the works). The Poseidon travels at 80mph, can quickly destroy an entire enemy fleet, and creates a radioactive tsunami that renders coastal towns uninhabitable.
The Belgorod. Image courtesy of FriskyAnYatos at Wikimedia Commons.
It utilizes a two-megaton warhead, making for a weapon that is 150x more powerful than what was dropped on Hiroshima.
Kalibr missiles are another nuclear-capable, sea-based option for Russia. These cruise missiles have an effective range of 932-1553 miles.
Russian Air-Based Nuclear Weapons
The Tu-22M3 Intermediate-Range Bomber, the Tu-160, Tu-95, Il-78, the Su-24M Fighter-Bomber, the Su-34 Fighter-Bomber, and the MiG-31K seem to be Russia's main nuclear-capable airplanes. There may be others, but these, at least, are the predominant ones.
One of Russia's air-based nukes is the Kinzhal missile. These hypersonic missiles have a 1058-pound payload, are 33x more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, have an erratic flight trajectory, a 932-1242 mile range, and are designed with the idea of destroying aircraft carriers, Aegis cruisers and the like in mind. The MiG-31K is known for carrying these.
Iskander-M Missile Systems
These land-based, mobile platforms make it incredibly difficult to keep track of everywhere that Russia has nukes. They also allow Russia to bring numerous tactical nukes to just about anywhere.
Suppose there is to be a tactical nuclear weapon used in the Russo-Ukrainian War. In that case, there is a very high chance that it will come from an Iskander-M missile system due to the prevalence of these units throughout the theater of war. These systems have a 310-mile range, can carry a nuke up to 700kg, can be outfitted with maneuverable re-entry vehicle systems (MaRV), can fire EMP warheads, and an utilize decoys to thwart missile defense systems.
We know that there are some in Kaliningrad at the moment, where they are within easy reach of many of Europe, including Sweden and Finland, non-NATO members of Scandinavia. Some of these systems were also spotted a few months ago on a train headed for the Kherson region. Of course, that was a few months ago, and these things moved. Where they are now is anybody's guess.
RS-24 Yars
Russia has one of these systems ready to go in Kaluga with a yield that is twelve times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. With a range of 12000 km and a payload of 500 kilotons, this massive nuke can strike anywhere on the planet once it is in the air.
Yars missiles have three MIRV warheads attached, and it's believed there are roughly 135 Yars systems that Russia has built.
SS-18 Sarmat
Also known as the "Satan," these are currently being replaced by RS-28 Satan 2 missiles. They are silo-launched missiles with either a 20-megaton warhead or ten 550-750 megaton MIRV warheads. The range is roughly 7,000 miles.
RS-28 Sarmat
Dubbed the "Satan 2," this missile is currently unstoppable by any nation on the planet once it is launched. A Mach-10 ICBM, the Satan 2 is a hypersonic missile capable of being fired from silos throughout Russia and hitting just about anywhere in Europe within 2+ minutes. It's often equipped with ten 750-kiloton MIRV warheads and has a range of at least 10,000 miles.
WHAT TYPE OF NUKES WOULD RUSSIA LIKELY USE?
There's no saying with 100% certainty exactly what type of Russian nukes in Ukraine would be used, but with our above knowledge of some of the types of nuclear weapons Russia possesses, here are how things could pan out.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons
A tactical nuke has a smaller payload than other nukes, generally classified as anything 100 kilotons or less, and anything larger than 100 kilotons is considered a strategic nuke. For comparison, Hiroshima was a 15-kiloton payload, and it's currently believed that Russia possesses somewhere in the ballpark of 2000 tactical nukes.
One possible response for a low-yield nuclear weapon that Russia could resort to would be an Iskander-M missile system. As noted above, these mobile platforms are currently scattered throughout Ukraine, and their positions are widely a mystery. We saw some videos in October 2022 of these systems being taken into the Kherson region, but it's been a long time since then. Being relatively easy to hide, these could be anywhere.
A Hypersonic Missile or Nuclear Torpedo
A Sarmat 2 or a Poseidon torpedo are each high-yield nuclear weapons. They would both cause massive amounts of devastation and, due to their yield, would create a lot of fallout compared to a smaller tactical nuke. A Poseidon torpedo would likely render a coastal port uninhabitable for years to come as well.
Russia could most certainly receive a propaganda benefit from utilizing an absolutely massive new-era nuke that would enable them to point to the rest of the world and say, "See? Look what we can do. We're unstoppable. Do you really want to mess with us? We could do this to you too."
However, part of the problem with using a weapon of this size is the same reason that an airburst detonation would make more sense than a ground detonation.
Any ground detonation would render much of what Russia wants to take unusable land for a long time. A large part of the value of Ukraine is its fields and soil. A bank robber doesn't burn down a bank to get to the money inside. Instead, he finds ways to get to the money that doesn't destroy it. Why would Russia render great swaths of land they're bleeding over unusable? Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe, and it has fantastic farms because of the tremendous soil. Russia would not want to destroy this.
WHERE WOULD RUSSIA LIKELY DROP NUKES IN UKRAINE?
We can really only speculate here, but here are five potential targets.
The Western Side of Ukraine
A tactical nuclear weapon dropped on the far west side of Ukraine wouldn't send much radiation into Russia. Given the wind pattern, it would assist Russia in "corralling" Ukrainian troops into concentrated regions. You can use a nuke simulator to understand how the radiation would assist.
The wind in Ukraine tends to blow to the northwest. So if Russia were to nuke Ternopl, the radiation would blow up to the northwestern corner of Ukraine, making resupply from NATO perilous and forcing Ukrainian soldiers to move closer to Russian troops.
In the end, Russia would have the breadbasket of Europe under its thumb, and the entire western side of Ukraine would be radioactive and rendered as a buffer zone between NATO and Russian forces. This, in turn, would make it so that Russia wouldn't have to spend so many resources in securing the western Ukrainian border. The radiation would essentially do it for them. It's modern war's version of a barbed wire fence.
A Large Port with a Heavy Military Presence
This would be an excellent place for Russia to demonstrate the power of its Poseidon torpedo. All enemy troops in the area would be destroyed, and all NATO members with a coastline would be warned about engaging in any actions against Russian forces.
This author believes a Poseidon detonation is unlikely in Ukraine. Access to the Black Sea via Ukraine would do Russia too many favors for The Kremlin to likely be willing to render large parts of the Ukrainian coast radioactive. However, if a Poseidon was used, it would cause quite a bit of consternation if the Belgorod then appeared in the North Atlantic in the range of Great Britain or France.
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