Israel must consider Hezbollah’s response to an Iran strike

Israel must consider Hezbollah’s response to an Iran strike

MirYam Institute

The questions surrounding Israel’s readiness for a potential strike on Iran should go beyond the discussion of whether its military capabilities can adequately damage the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

Any strike plan must first answer the following questions: Will Hezbollah automatically retaliate on Iran’s behalf? If so, has Israel fully taken into account the scenario of activating two fronts at the same time—Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon? This is not even to mention a third possible arena—Gaza. Finally, is the Israeli home front ready for such a scenario?

Simply put, if Hezbollah attacks Israel with everything it has, Israel will have to deal with not only over 150,000 unguided projectiles but also hundreds of precision missiles.

These precision missiles can significantly harm Israel’s ability to maintain a functioning government. It would therefore be a mistake to ask whether Israel can delay Iran’s nuclear capabilities without asking in the same breath whether the Israeli home front is prepared for Hezbollah’s firepower.

It is possible that Hezbollah’s conventional arsenal and its precision missiles could disrupt state functions to a degree that makes them as severe as a nuclear threat.

In such a scenario, Israel would be unable to activate its military capabilities on fronts that develop after an Iran strike, command and control would be disrupted, and Israel would struggle to evacuate its civilians from areas under heavy fire in the north of the country.

Israeli authorities need to be sure, today, that they know how to evacuate some 30,000 people from the northern border area. That means knowing which hotels or accommodation centers will absorb them, which hospitals will take in the wounded and which evacuation routes to use.

In addition, and due to the above, Israel also needs to consider the option of a preemptive strike on Hezbollah’s firepower prior to attacking Iran’s nuclear sites.

The strategic logic of such action rests with the assumption that some time after such a strike—whether six months, a year or more—with Hezbollah struggling to rebuild its capabilities after a massive Israeli blow, Israel will be free to focus on the Iranian threat without simultaneously dealing with Hezbollah.

While a preemptive war is illegal under international law, a preemptive strike is a different matter. How Hezbollah responds to such a strike will determine the course of events and whether they snowball into war.

In either scenario—an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites or a preemptive strike on Hezbollah—Israel must prepare its civilian sector appropriately. If there is a good chance that some 10,000 residential buildings in Israel are damaged and northern communities come under a level of fire never previously experienced, a population evacuation would be mandatory. Failing to prepare for evacuations would leave huge numbers of civilians vulnerable to attack.

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