New Normal: 'Everything Can Change Overnight'

When Ukraine Was Invaded 700 Years Ago… Another Superpower Was in Decline

Via Sovereign Man

This was an important moment in history; most people already noticed Mongolia’s decline — the infighting, the intolerance, the inflation.

But it took the Lithuanians invading Mongolia’s vassal state of Kiev — something that would have been unthinkable only a few decades prior — for the world to finally realize that the Mongolian Empire was no longer the dominant superpower.

History is full of similar watershed moments where it becomes obvious that a former superpower has declined.

I’ve written extensively about the many, obvious signs that US dominance is waning.

Last year’s disgraceful, humiliating retreat from Afghanistan was one such sign.

Another sign is the woke fanaticism that has infected the US intelligence and defense community, where many policymakers seem to prioritize diversity and inclusion over national security.

But the most recent sign is Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last week. This would have never happened two decades ago; he would have been too afraid of America’s wrath.

Yet today, Putin feels emboldened. The Brandon Administration spent months threatening Putin, hoping to scare him into backing off.

But like the Grand Duchy of Lithuania back in the 1360s, Putin sees the decline — the infighting, the intolerance, the inflation (not to mention weak leadership) — so he’s no longer intimidated… by either the US or NATO.

It’s also notable that China is the most important voice in this conversation; Putin agreed to peace talks with Ukraine ONLY after Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Putin to do so on Friday.

In other words, the US was powerless to prevent the invasion, while China may be instrumental in ending it.

But facts are facts, and it’s important to remain objective.

Future historians will undoubtedly opine about the end of America’s dominance, and precisely when it happened; they may point to the Afghanistan retreat, or the COVID-19 pandemic in which Faucist bureaucrats took over the nation.

Perhaps they’ll point to the day that the US national debt hit $30 trillion. Or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Or they may point to some other event that hasn’t taken place yet.

I know people in Ukraine who were still consumed with day-to-day trivialities as late as last Tuesday, the day before the invasion. One woman I know fretted about her expiring gym membership. Now she’s stuck in Kiev with a small child.

These are not stupid people; they’re intelligent, educated individuals who assumed “There’s no way he’s going to invade.”

And let’s be honest, most people around the world thought the same, and forgot the lessons of Covid-19: everything can change overnight.

There are almost always warning signs. With Covid, we could see western European countries imposing lockdowns. With Ukraine, we could see 100,000+ troops massed on the border. With US dominance, we can see obvious indications of decline.

We’re not talking about obscure risks; the signs are clear. It’s just a question of getting over denial and normalcy bias… because it’s better to be comfortable and early than even a second late.