North Korea’s massive military parade showcased an arsenal that should raise eyebrows in the Middle East. It wheeled out its Hwasong-15 ballistic missile and a giant intercontinental ballistic missile that had to be pulled on a transport vehicle with 11 axles. This is a monster and reports call it a “strategic weapon” that appears to threaten the globe.Years after the Trump administration believed personal diplomacy would make North Korea into a compliant actor, the regime has new weapons. Because Iran is working with North Korea, this could mean Tehran could threaten Israel with similar missiles or shared technology, as it has in the past.
France24 reported that experts said more new weapons were unveiled at this parade than in previous editions. China appeared pleased with President Xi Jinping congratulating Pyongyang on the anniversary.
Many internet sleuths are out there digesting the new photos of the massive missile and the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) it rode on. Among these are Fabian Hinz and Tal Inbar. The length of these TELs has grown as well, from eight in 2012 to 11 in 2020. Last year it was reported that North Korea was mass-producing ballistic missile transporters and parts for them.
Questions remain about North Korea’s new missile. It is likely the largest road-mobile ICBM in the world and is thought to be liquid-fueled. The consensus is that this missile, if it works, is a threat. The giant TEL is also a threat, apparently, because it shows the capabilities of North Korea in building these transport vehicles. North Korea has been doing a number of tests in recent years. Last August it carried out five tests in several weeks using transporters and shorter range ballistic missiles. Those missiles flew around 400km. In all there were 13 missile tests last year. Harry Kazianis, of The National Interest and an expert on North Korea, noted that the new ICBM that North Korea paraded “seems to be a derivative of what was tested back in late 2017, known as the Hwason-15, is much bigger and clearly more powerful than anything in DPRK’s arsenal.”
This has major ramifications for Israel because reports on September 20 indicated that Iran and North Korea had resumed collaboration. Iran has been increasing its ballistic missile arsenal in recent years, including ranges and precision of the missiles. Iran also has a much better drone, loitering munition, cruise missile and radar units than in the past.
Mark Episkopos at The National Interest noted in a September 23 article that Iran has been one of North Korea’s best customers in the past, a client in the 1980s for missile technology that eventually went on to acquire the medium-range Hwason-7 ballistic missile.
Iran has used these missiles as a model for its own rapidly expanding missile program. The article noted that the Hwasong-7 was the basis for the Shahab-3 in Iran. Other accounts say the North Korean Nodong-1 missile is a basis for the Shahab-3. Further the National Interest article notes, based on US State and Treasury Department reports, that Iran’s Shahid Movahed Industries has cooperated with North Korea on long range missiles. These could include the Hwasong-12, Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 missiles.
Interest in how Iran and North Korea work together has confounded analysts for several decades. Reports indicate that North Korea helped Pakistan and Iran in the 1990s and early 2000s, including on transport vehicles. Russian diplomats even told the US they were concerned about the Iran-North Korea cooperation on missiles in 2009. At the time US officials and others felt that the missile programs were not well-developed and experts scoffed at the idea that North Korea could successfully sell its larger missiles abroad. However, 2010 reports showed alarm bells were ringing as US intelligence reported that Iran had obtained 19 advanced missiles from North Korea that could hit Moscow and Europe. These were BM-25 (Hwasong-10) missiles and could give Iran “building blocks” for better missiles. Indeed, they did.
No comments:
Post a Comment