The Islamist government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adopted a strategic approach toward Iran that prioritizes the survival of the clerical regime in Tehran. Should that objective fail, Ankara appears determined to shape any political transition in a way that prevents the emergence of a pro-Western or Israel-aligned government.
Recent developments reveal that Turkey’s Iran policy is not driven merely by regional diplomacy but by a deeper geopolitical calculation: maintaining an ideological and strategic axis that counters Western influence in the Middle East while protecting Erdogan’s own political positioning at home and abroad.
While the Erdogan government, joined by much of the co-opted opposition in Turkey, has ratcheted up anti-Israel rhetoric in the aftermath of attacks on Iran, it has deliberately downplayed the Iranian mullah regime’s unprovoked missile launch against Turkish territory. Government propagandists have even gone so far as to blame the incident on Israel, portraying it as a supposed false-flag operation despite offering no evidence to support the claim.
For Ankara, Iran’s stability is viewed as a national security interest. Turkish policymakers increasingly interpret attempts to take down terrorism-sponsoring mullah regime as part of a broader geopolitical struggle involving the United States and Israel. They frequently frame protests or internal unrest in Iran as movements influenced by foreign powers, echoing narratives long promoted by Iranian leaders themselves.
Turkey has been noticeably quiet about the war against Iran, as it tries to balance its Islamic supremacist ambitions while also cleverly navigating its NATO membership, which is key to keeping it well armed as a powerful global player.
Turkey is a detriment to the West and Israel. Consider: Turkish Present Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referenced Hamas as a “liberation organization,” hosted its leadership in Ankara, and granted them Turkish passports. Turkey and Qatar are well-known Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Turkey also supports Syria’s jihadist President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and has sought an increased partnership with Iran. It even considers the Taliban a friend.
Erdogan also “hailed a massive pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul on New Year’s Day as a ‘historic moment.’” He stated that “it sent a clear message that Palestine is not alone.” He threatened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying: “What this Pharaoh called (Israeli Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu has done will not go unpunished, because he incurred the curses of countless oppressed people, from the young to the old.” As if that were not enough to wake up the West, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies also states regarding the Islamic State’s short-lived caliphate in Iraq and Syria:
The ability of ISIS to become a functioning state so quickly is largely due to its relationship with President Erdoğan in Turkey.
ISIS has had strong connections to Turkey over the years, whether through its oil industry or through its willingness to shield wanted members of the Muslim Brotherhood. This “neighborly” relationship was essential to ISIS’s success, and it continues to be reflected in Turkish decisionmaking.
As Turkey evaluates its own interests in the face of a widening conflict, its hope is for more influence, first under a seemingly benign role “to assume a greater share of the responsibility for regional security, stability, and peace,” but in reality, Turkey seeks its own regional dominance, and ultimately a global caliphate. Since ongoing instability would presumably require American ongoing involvement, this does not bode well for a country with big ambitions for primary leadership in the region.
Long before the war on Iran began, Turkey was revealing itself to be the new Iran.
