Hormuz update:

Comfortably Bomb

Michael Every

This is not a sustainable long-term dynamic, but for a few weeks, or months at most, the market may continue to say “there is no pain” in spot oil prices even if wide crack spreads were already telling another story on refined products before this latest fighting started.

The key question is if this is a temporary or a longer-term geopolitical issue: arguably it’s both. However, the US may be gambling it can resolve the Hormuz situation to the energy market’s satisfaction before things become critical.

The message from US CENTCOM is clear: “The Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway. US forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations. Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.” In pledging this, the US aims to ensure that Hormuz doesn’t bother markets the way that it did earlier in the war. That implies: 

1. Taking out Iranian facilities in and along Hormuz so the threat to the southern Omani channel is diminished. 

2. Providing defensive cover for ships passing through from drones, missiles, small boats, and mines, etc.  

3. Shielding GCC allies, particularly their energy and critical infrastructure, but where stocks of missile interceptors are reportedly low. Very notably, Iran has so far not struck at these key GCC facilities again in recent attacks. That could suggest Tehran realises there are limits to what it can do to its neighbours if it also wants to offer alternative regional leadership ahead.  

These US tasks, mirroring the late-80’s Operation Earnest Will in the Iran-Iraq War's Tanker phase, may require help from the GCC and NATO. While US allies have been reticent to (publicly) act in this regard until now –and the Saudis blocked Operation Project Freedom with the same goal– that dynamic may change with the recent narrow avoidance of an energy crisis and the narrative that Iran alone is now blocking Hormuz.  

Moreover, it has been revealed that the US continued with a covert version of Project Freedom anyway without Saudi assistance. 

It’s credible to assume US (and GCC/coalition) naval escorts with air cover could move substantial energy volumes through Hormuz via Omani waters even under duress. Recent operational data suggest the US military directly escorted tankers carrying significant amounts of oil successfully through the Strait. The US claims this was as high as 7 million barrels per day. Sustained throughput of meaningful amounts of oil and products via these military escorts appears theoretically feasible, albeit at higher costs from insurance premia and longer transit times. That turns a serious supply shock into a manageable disruption. 

At the same time, it’s realistic to expect that on top of a cancelled Iranian oil sanctions waiver, the US could reimpose its blockade on Iranian oil to increase economic pressure on it.  

We can also expect more efforts to build alternative supply chains and pipelines that avoid Hormuz as possible around it. None of them are a short-term palliative to match the Saudi East West pipeline to Yanbu, but in the longer run they will reduce Iran’s leverage even further.  

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Things To Come: Mass Surveillance Systems

While the Political Circus Distracts Us, Flock Builds the Digital Police State

John W. Whitehead

“You had to live—did live, from habit that became instinct—in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized.”—George Orwell, 1984

While Americans remain transfixed by the political circus—cheering for their preferred party, jeering at the opposition, obsessing over every manufactured outrage and waiting for the next spectacle—the Surveillance State continues its steady march forward.

The government is watching.

It watches where you go, whom you meet, where you worship, what medical offices you visit, what political rallies you attend, what protests you join, what books you read, what websites you visit and what causes you support.

It watches through your phone, your car, your doorbell, your appliances, your purchases, your social media accounts and the cameras positioned along the roads you travel every day.

This is how freedom dies in the digital police state: not always through dramatic declarations of martial law or soldiers stationed on every street corner, but through the gradual construction of a technological dragnet—an electronic concentration camp—so pervasive that privacy becomes impossible and anonymity becomes suspicious.

Enter Flock Safety, a private surveillance technology company whose automated license plate readers have spread throughout thousands of American communities.

These cameras, which do much more than photograph license plates, represent the next evolution of the government’s public-private surveillance partnership.

They document the time and location of every passing vehicle and record identifying characteristics such as its make, model, color, damage, roof racks, bumper stickers and other distinctive features. That information can then be placed in a searchable database and used to retrace a vehicle’s movements over time.

Yet the real power—and the real danger—of Flock does not come from the cameras alone.

It comes from artificial intelligence.

A camera can photograph a car. Flock’s AI-powered platform can identify and categorize a vehicle, compare an observation with stored records, generate alerts, identify connections and help police reconstruct where that vehicle has been.

AI is what transforms a photograph into the building blocks for a suspect society.

With AI, every driver becomes a data point. Every data point becomes a pattern. And every pattern becomes a suspicion.

This is how ordinary movements become potentially suspect and subject to government scrutiny. It allows law enforcement agencies to search not only for a complete license plate number but also for partial plates and physical descriptions such as vehicle color, make, model, damage, roof racks, bumper stickers and other identifying characteristics.

This is no longer surveillance conducted by individual officers following particular leads. It is surveillance conducted at machine speed, across entire populations, with algorithms deciding whose movements merit further scrutiny.

Consider the scale of what is taking place.

License plate cameras now log approximately 20 billion vehicle scans every month.

Twenty billion.

That is not targeted policing. That is mass collection.

The overwhelming majority of those scans do not involve stolen cars, wanted suspects, kidnappings or violent crimes. They document ordinary people carrying out the ordinary activities of daily life: driving to work, taking children to school, visiting friends, attending church, keeping medical appointments, participating in protests or simply going home.

Yet each of those innocent journeys becomes part of a searchable police database.

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On Schedule: Iran And Russia Strengthen Ties

Iran's New Supreme Leader Backs Stronger Ties With Russia

Sputnik

Iran is ready to remove obstacles to the implementation of joint projects with Russia, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's office said on Monday.

"During a meeting with Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev, the president emphasized the need to intensify the implementation of strategic agreements between Tehran and Moscow, declaring Iran's readiness to remove obstacles to the implementation of joint projects," the office said in a statement. 

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei advocates for stronger ties with Russia, the statement said.

Russia and Iran discussed prospects for developing the two countries' energy infrastructure during Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev's visit to the Islamic Republic, the Russian Energy Ministry said.

"Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev, co-chair of the Russian-Iranian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation, made a working visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran ... During the talks, the parties discussed prospects for the further development of Russia and Iran's energy infrastructure," the statement said.

Russia and Iran are steadily developing cooperation, including in the energy sector, Tsivilev said during the meeting, as quoted by the Russian Energy Ministry.

The parties discussed implementation of joint gas projects and preparation of bilateral cooperation agreements, the ministry added.

Iran and Russia are close to finalizing an agreement on the gas trade, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said.

Paknejad said he had discussed with his Russian counterpart the implementation of agreements reached during the 19th session of the Russia-Iran Intergovernmental Commission in February 2026, as well as issues related to Russian investments in Iranian oil and gas fields. Possible solutions to existing problems in bilateral cooperation were also prepared.

US to Begin Iran's Naval Blockade on July 14 at 20:00 GMT

US to Begin Iran's Naval Blockade on July 14 at 20:00 GMT

Sputnik

The United States will begin enforcing a naval blockade of Iran on July 14 at 20:00 GMT, the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said on Monday. 

"As of 2000Z [20:00 GMT] on 14 July 2026, U.S. Central Command will begin enforcement of a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and Iranian coastal areas," the JMIC said in a statement. 

The blockade will encompass Iran's entire coastline, including its ports and oil terminals, the JMIC added. 

"The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations," the JMIC wrote. 

Humanitarian shipments will be permitted but will be subject to inspection, the JMIC said.

Iran's Foreign Minister Says Tehran Always Been, Will Remain 'Guardian' of Hormuz Strait

 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday that Tehran had always been the "guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz and would remain so.

"[US President Donald Trump] is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER," Araghchi said.

Trump proclaimed that the United States is now “the guardian of the Hormuz Strait” and should thus be “reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped" on July 13.

He also declared the reinstatement of the US blockade on all Iranian traffic through the strait, adding that all other countries “will have fair and open use” of the waterway.

UAE says crew member killed, 8 others hurt in Iran missile attacks on tankers in Hormuz

UAE says crew member killed, 8 others hurt in Iran missile attacks on tankers in Hormuz

REUTERS

The UAE defense ministry says that two national tankers have been targeted by two Iranian cruise missiles in the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz in Omani territorial waters, killing one Indian crew member and wounding eight others, including four seriously.

The ministry says fires broke out on both tankers but have been brought under control. It condemns the attack as a serious breach of international law and says the UAE retains its full right to respond and take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and security.