Russia Warns US Against Sending Thousands More Troops Near Its Borders: Pushing Toward 'Suicidal Conflict'

Russia Warns US Against Sending Thousands More Troops Near Its Borders: Pushing Toward 'Suicidal Conflict'

TYLER DURDEN

Russia is deeply alarmed about US plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to NATO's eastern flank member Poland, slamming reports out of Washington as unacceptable and portending an escalation in the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing on Thursday that sending additional American soldiers to Poland "would result in escalation of tension across Europe" and that Moscow would be forced to take "retaliatory measures".

Given that some 5,000 troops are being moved there from Germany, she did acknowledge that reducing America's troop presense in Europe would overall be "rational, justified, and long-overdue" step toward stabilizing what she called an "imbalanced" security situation created by NATO and Western policies.

Weeks ago, the White House began threatening a significant and historic force reduction from Germany, following Berlin officials' repeat criticisms of the US-Israeli war against Iran. This was initially presented in media reports as part of a broader drawdown from Europe, but now it appears US forces are just being shifted around, and with 5,000 to be placed closer to Russia.

But these thousands more troops in Poland could induce Russia to respond with "military-technical measures." Zakharova in perhaps the most provocative part of her remarks warned that NATO is pushing the continent toward a "suicidal" conflict.

In total, some 10,000 US service members are stationed in Poland, on a regular rotation, and the new Washington deployment would see thousands more added to this - from among the 80,000 deployed across Europe.

Poland shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad Region, setting off further concerns about targeting and drone activity: 

The deployment of additional US military forces to Poland could lead to a "qualitative escalation" of tensions between Russia and the West and force Moscow to take retaliatory measures, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.

Zakharova also said that the number of drone attacks on Russian territory from the direction of Europe and Northern European states was increasing.

Moscow has expressed concern that Ukrainian drones could be using Baltic or other countries' airspace to launch attacks on targets inside Russia, an assertion rejected by Kyiv and the three Baltic countries.

Warsaw has hit back, with Foreign minister Maciej Wewiór having told the Polish news agency PAP that allied troops in Poland were "a necessary reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank" as a result of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and given the Kremlin's "escalatory rhetoric" towards the alliance.

Wewiór additionally said the "real source of escalation and tensions in Europe" remains Moscow's "unlawful and aggressive military actions" – and not legitimate measures taken by NATO countries to defend their populations and borders.

Shortages And Rationing Loom As Global Oil Reserves Fall At The Fastest Rate In History

Shortages And Rationing Loom As Global Oil Reserves Fall At The Fastest Rate In History

Michael Snyder

No matter what happens now, the world is facing a very painful energy crisis. Let’s be as wildly optimistic as we possibly can and assume that Iran agrees to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz with absolutely no tolls or restrictions starting tomorrow. Before normal traffic through the Strait could resume, Iran would first have to remove all of the mines that they have laid in the Strait, and that could take months. Once all of the mines have been removed, it will take the tankers that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf weeks to arrive at their destinations. Moving forward, Persian Gulf countries will be exporting much less oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future because of all the oil and natural gas infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed during the war. It will take years before all of that infrastructure is fully repaired and rebuilt. Meanwhile, global supplies of oil and natural gas will be very tight for an extended period of time.

What I have just laid out for you is the best case scenario.

Ultimately, what we end up facing could be so much worse.

Over the past couple of months, global oil reserves have been falling at the fastest rate ever recorded…

Record inventory draw: Global oil stocks have fallen by 246 million barrels in March-April, with draws in May hitting a record 8.7 million barrels per day.

Hormuz closure impact: The Strait of Hormuz shutdown has cut off 25% of the world’s seaborne oil, compounding already low reserves and boosting prices.

US price outlook: Analysts expect U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 this summer unless flows resume, with relief unlikely before autumn.

Needless to say, this is not sustainable.

Here in the United States, the strategic petroleum reserve has been dropping at a record-breaking pace…

The SPR’s most recent drawdown, covering the week ended May 22, shows a drop of 9.1 million barrels, leaving the reserves at 365 million barrels. The previous weekly drawdown, covering the week of May 15, was its steepest on record — the U.S. withdrew 9.92 million barrels from the SPR then.

Before that record-breaking decline, the largest weekly drop in the SPR’s history occurred in the week ended Oct. 7, 2022, when the reserves dropped by 7.41 million barrels, and was connected to the war in Ukraine.

Commercial oil inventories are being rapidly depleted as well.

At some point the tanks are going to hit minimum operating levels and we are going to have an enormous crisis on our hands.

The chief economist at Capital Economics is projecting that commercial oil inventories “could reach critically low levels by the end of June”…

“At the current pace of drawdown, commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June,” Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on May 18.

If supply conditions don’t improve soon, “prices could rise sharply,” Shearing warned.

Jeff Currie is warning that Asia is already very close to minimum operating levels, and he is projecting that the U.S. could potentially be dealing with shortages in July…

Oil markets are nearing minimum operating levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday, underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war.

Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of Abaxx Markets.

A large portion of that oil is needed to keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore.

This is really happening.

The Australian government is so concerned about what is ahead that they have already prepared a plan to limit the amount of fuel each vehicle can purchase per day when that becomes necessary…

Contained in documents obtained by Guardian Australian under freedom of information, one option the government had at its disposal to arrest a local fuel supply shortage would be to impose a “maximum transaction value per vehicle per day” – a rationing rule which would limit how much fuel a single vehicle can buy at a service station over a 24-hour period.

If the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened, we could eventually see similar measures get implemented all over the world.

Of course rationing of motor oil has already started…

Nissan is rationing 5W-30 and 0W-20 Nissan Genuine Motor Oils. Starting this week, Nissan’s stock of these oils has dropped by 30% year-on-year. With only 70% left in the tank, the brand is already taking precautions, sending memos to dealers to manage its stock during the shortage.

The brand will prioritize certain owners, such as those claiming “warranty, extended warranty, recall repairs, goodwill, and prepaid maintenance,” according to Kim Less, the vice president of aftersales at Nissan Americas, in the bulletin addressed to Nissan dealers.

The pharmaceutical industry is also very dependent on raw materials from the Middle East, and one pharmacist is claiming that the current drug shortage is the “worst I’ve ever known”…

Some people living with heart conditions, stroke risks, eye infections and bipolar disorder are among those unable to get the medications they rely on, a pharmacist has said.

Graham Jones, who owns Shrivenham Pharmacy in Oxfordshire, said vital medication like aspirin was harder to obtain because of surging global prices and government funding which was not keeping up with costs.

Jones said the current medication shortage was the “worst I’ve ever known”.

The UN is telling us that we could be facing a worldwide food crisis that could last for “years”…

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks a global food crisis that could extend for years, the UN warned.

Global fertilizer companies have slashed production over shortfalls of sulphur, required to make many farming inputs; about half of the global supply passed through the strait before the Iran war.

As a result, farmers are likely to produce lower yields in coming harvests. Richer economies like those in Europe are mulling building fertilizer stockpiles, reducing duties on imports, and onshoring production, but poorer ones have limited room to adapt.

I want to be very clear about what lies in front of us.

No matter what happens now, there will be shortages and rationing.

It is just a matter of how intense they will be and how long they will last.

Needless to say, the outlook for the global economy in the months ahead is not promising at all.

We really do have a major crisis on our hands, and it will become a historic nightmare if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.

 

"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

TYLER DURDEN

Just about two months ago, JPMorgan did the math on "How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum." The punchline was that while the market can hold hundreds of millions of barrels, it would still become fragile once working stocks fell too low. Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation. 

Then, approximately 4 weeks later, the bank followed up this analysis with some more math, explaining "Why Hormuz Will Reopen By September... One Way Or Another." The bank calculated that of the 8.4 billion barrels in global oil inventories at the start of 2026, only 0.8 billion barrels were realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. 

Long story short (and the long story can be found here), OECD commercial stocks could fall to operational stress levels by June, and then hit the global operational floor by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, assuming demand destruction stabilized at 5.5 mbd (with oil prices paradoxically dropping since the last JPM article, demand destruction has actually slowed). 

Meanwhile, the biggest paradox during this period when the blocked Hormuz Strait meant that roughly 10 million barrels of oil wasn't reaching its intended destination each day, was that instead of prices going sharply higher to destroy demand, oil prices were actually dropping after peaking in late March and then again a month later, in effect incentivizing more demand. This prompted JPMorgan to published that "Something Is Off" With The Global Oil Math...

... and Goldman to follow up a few weeks later by observing that in May, global oil inventories plunged by a record 8.7 million barrels per day, with Hormuz still largely blocked.

And yet, oil prices are sharply lower in May, in no small part due to the daily market jawboning manipulation by various official and unofficial sources, who signal that an Iran deal is imminent... any minute now. 

Only it isn't, and while the market may prefer to shove its head in the sand, the biggest names in the room are no longer keeping quiet.

Today, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as already near record low crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. 

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” he said at a Bernstein conference on Thursday.

“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

Wirth’s comments follow a 10% fall in oil prices over the past week amid optimism that the US and Iran can agree a deal to end the three-month-long conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of crude flows. They highlight growing concern among economists that the war’s impact on energy prices will continue to be felt for many months after any deal is agreed to end it... not that that moment is even remotely close. The conflict has removed 12mn-13mn barrels of oil a day from global markets.

The comments by Wirth echo a growing chorus of warnings from other oil executives, including the head of the United Arab Emirates state oil group Adnoc, who cautioned last week that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were unlikely to return before next year even if the conflict is resolved.

“It will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,” Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said during an Atlantic Council event on May 21.

Echoing JPMorgan's observations, Wirth said oil prices had not risen as much as people had expected due to higher-than-normal stocks of crude prior to the outbreak of the war, releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and flows of sanctioned oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. But he said these stocks were now running low. One wildcard is the rapid, yet very stealthy, drain of Chinese stocks, both commercial and strategic. With 1.4 billion in China's SPR, the moment of reckoning could be delayed yet again if Beijing decides to open the floodgates. 

Wirth also said the energy crisis would force governments to focus more on “an insurance policy” by building up oil reserves to insulate them from shocks such as the pandemic and wars in Iran and between Russia and Ukraine. “The likelihood that another shock is around the corner is something policymakers are going to have to bear in mind . . . how long they want to roll the dice before they refill inventories is a question that I think we’re going to see policymakers have to grapple with.”

“That’s going to put more demand into the market, which is going to put a bit of additional tension on the price,” he said.

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Iran Clarifies Deal 'Not Finalized' Amid Lack Of Trust, Warns US-Gulf Of 'Utter Ruin' If War Resumes

Iran Clarifies Deal 'Not Finalized' Amid Lack Of Trust, Warns US-Gulf Of 'Utter Ruin' If War Resumes

TYLER DURDEN

Iran's Tasnim reports Friday that the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is not yet finalized, and that Thursday's flurry of Western media headlines about an agreement finally being reached were inaccurate.

"The text is not finalized yet and the account in Western media is not precise," a fresh statement indicates. Official confirmation will be announced if it does get to the point of being finalized, Tasnim notes. The report cited an Iranian official to say that "the text of the possible memorandum of understanding has had changes over the past few days."

The warring sides are attempting to lock in a 60-day extended ceasefire, during which time they will get back to the table - and that's when finer details like how to address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium will be dealt with. It is now day 91, and according to the latest Friday:

Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf says: "We have no trust in guarantees or words."

Late Thursday, US Vice President J.D. Vance indicated that President Trump has not approved, at a moment Washington is insisting the nuclear issue be more front and center as part of the MOU.

However, the Iranians have consistently said their nuclear program is not up for negotiation toward ending the war - but that it is something that can be talked about once the conflict closes.

According to a summary of the latest on the stalled MOU from an Al Jazeera correspondent: 

Diplomatic efforts to preserve the ceasefire between the United States and Iran have continued behind the scenes, with officials signaling progress towards a framework that could open the door to formal negotiations after weeks of conflict and disruption across the Gulf and beyond.

Despite the optimism, questions remain over the timing and scope of any agreement.

Iranian media reports suggested discussions are continuing and that key details have yet to be finalized, while both sides continue to navigate sensitive issues, including Iran’s nuclear program and security in the Gulf.

More from Iran's chief negotiator in a Friday update:

What has become clear is that US and international media reports have consistently proven premature, too out front, thinly sourced, and ultimately inaccurate in their generally optimistic claims of a deal being 'finalized' or else 'imminent'.

In the meantime, Iran's ongoing threats of an escalated, protracted war happen to be very clear:

The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”

The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.

The Islamic Republic has also been touting new "tools" to use against its enemies, per CNN:

Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”

Some pundits fear that such references to "new fronts" could mean either the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, or even the possibility of missiles reaching Europe.

Umud Shokri, an energy strategist at George Mason University, has explained in a statement, "A simultaneous crisis in Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would be far more serious, potentially affecting both Red Sea trade and Persian Gulf energy flows, which would raise oil prices, freight rates, and inflationary pressure worldwide."

Still, the Trump administration is pressing for a deal which would make its Iran gambit look like 'victory' - something which finally reopens energy transit points and sees the removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran. Tehran leaders, however, don't appear in the mood to allow Washington to have its cake and eat it too.

• Many points regarding the Iranian nuclear file have been resolved; Iran has agreed to international oversight of its nuclear facilities to prevent their dismantling, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Iran wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to America.

• Chairman of the Iranian National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament said there are no plans to transfer enriched uranium out of the country, Asharq reported.

• Iran Deputy for Foreign Policy and International Security Ali Baqeri held separate meetings in Moscow with the Foreign Policy Advisor to Brazil's President and the Secretary General of Egypt's National Security Council.

• IRGC Commander said Iran forces are ready to act on Supreme Leader's order and enemies should not make mistakes as they will get themselves and others into trouble.

• Iran military source said US drone was intercepted near Bushehr in southern Iran, according to Al Jazeera.

• US Vice President Vance said that US President Trump is not yet ready to endorse the Iran agreement, while Vance noted that US and Iran made a lot of progress towards a ceasefire deal, according to AFP. Vance said US and Iran are at odds on uranium enrichment and stockpiles, according to SNN.

• White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller stating in an interview with Fox News that US President Trump is directly involved in negotiations with Iran.
• US President Trump said we completely sank the Iranian Navy and destroyed their air force, did not target all of Iran’s military leadership so that what happened in Iraq would not be repeated.

• US military said Iran's state TV claim that Iranian forces downed a US aircraft near Bushehr is false and no US aircraft was shot down by Iran, with all US air assets are accounted for.

• US VP Vance said US and Iran are exchanging proposals regarding some drafting points including issue of enrichment, adds time is still early to know when an agreement with Iran will be reached and if it will happen at all.

• US Treasury imposes fresh sanctions targeting Iran's military oil sales, according to Reuters. IRNA reported US sanctions 25 individuals, firms and vessels over Iran oil.
• US President Trump said that US has all the cards, Iran has been defeated militarily, according to a Fox interview.

• Al Hadath posted Iranian television reported “the downing of an American fighter jet” in the vicinity of Bushehr, with no American confirmations.

• US official denies what Iranian TV announced about downing any American plane near Bushehr, according to Al Hadath.

• Israel's Channel 12, citing military sources, said "The army recommends to the political leadership intensifying the air and ground strikes in Lebanon".

 

Student Barred From Reading ‘Offensive’ Pro-Life Poem—As Teacher Allows Another Presentation Mocking Christ

Student Barred From Reading ‘Offensive’ Pro-Life Poem—As Teacher Allows Another Presentation Mocking Christ

Decision Magazine

A Colorado middle school prevented a student from reading a pro-life poem she wrote celebrating life in the womb. The school called her poem “offensive,” “unsafe,” and “too political,” while allowing poems supporting LGBTQ rights and a poem that reportedly mocked Jesus.

The 13-year-old student attends Drake Middle School, a school within Jefferson County (Jeffco) Public Schools. According to the student and her mother, when it was time for the student to present her poem to her class, her teacher stopped her, explaining that she was not permitted to present the poem and that she had to leave the classroom while the other students presented. 

The girl and her mother shared her story in a video posted on the conservative social media account Libs of TikTok.

“My teacher assigned an assignment in class to write a slam poem about conflict in the world that we are passionate about,” she said. 

Passionate about unborn babies, she chose to write about the value of life in the womb. 

“I chose life,” she said. “I chose this topic because it’s important to me and my family. In my poem, I met all of the criteria. I got reputable resources and I included everything that I needed in my poem, but when I asked my teacher if I could present it, she said no. This is why my mom had to step in.”

The student explained that when she further questioned her teacher, she “finally said that I could be in the class to listen.” 

The student’s mother explained why she spoke to the school about the incident. 

“They said that because of the offensive material in the poem, that they were not going to allow her to present,” the mother said, “and I pushed back on them because not only were they presenting a lot of political material themselves, but they were presenting it as truth. They brought up issues like racial issues, they had LGBTQ rights, immigration.”

The mother added that the school responded by saying the poem was “too political” and they were “not going to allow it.’”

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