What Is Going To Happen When The Oil Reserves Run Out And The Tankers Stop Arriving?

What Is Going To Happen When The Oil Reserves Run Out And The Tankers Stop Arriving?

Michael Snyder

A lot of people out there seem to think that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is not that big of a deal, and that is because we aren’t feeling the consequences yet. By the end of this month, the last oil tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war with Iran began will have arrived at their destinations. And right now nations all over the globe are running through their strategic energy reserves. Some nations have months of oil left, and some nations only have weeks of oil left. As those reserves start to run dry, we are going to witness a supply crunch that is absolutely unprecedented.

If you don’t believe me, perhaps you will believe the head of the International Energy Agency.

He is warning that we are “facing the biggest energy security threat in history”…

“We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history,” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, or IEA, told CNBC on Thursday.

“As of today, we’ve lost 13 million barrels per day of oil … and there are major disruptions in vital commodities,” he told Steve Sedgwick virtually at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore.

Birol has previously warned that the Iran war and ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced” and urged governments to bolster their resilience with alternative energy sources.

For now, we are only witnessing limited rationing and limited shortages around the world because everyone is running through their strategic reserves.

And so it feels like we are going to come through this okay.

But the truth is that we aren’t.

Global supplies of oil and natural gas will get steadily tighter during the months ahead.

The Iranians are hardly letting any commercial vessels get through the Strait of Hormuz, and even if they suddenly changed their minds tomorrow we are being told that it could take up to six months to clear all of the mines out of the Strait of Hormuz…

It may take up to six months to completely clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines, according to a new report.

A Defense Department official relayed the estimate to lawmakers during a closed-door congressional briefing on Tuesday, three sources familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.

The assessment points to potentially long-lasting economic consequences, as the strait — now subject to dueling U.S. and Iranian blockades — is a critical trade artery that carried 20 percent of the world’s oil before the war.

It appears that Iran has been using this temporary ceasefire to lay more mines in the Strait.

And clearing them will not even begin until the end of the war…

Any efforts to remove the mines won’t even begin until the war ends, the official warned.

The Iranian navy began placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz in March, as US-Israeli forces continued their joint attacks on the country.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is promising that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will continue until Iran finally agrees to make a deal…

According to CENTCOM, more than 30 vessels have been redirected by the U.S. Navy since the blockade was initiated…

The last update by CENTCOM, on Wednesday night, said 31 ships had been redirected since the start of the blockade.

Iran has called the blockade a violation of the ceasefire agreement, while the U.S. says it will remain in place as a condition of negotiations.

With Iran and the U.S. both blocking traffic, barely anything is getting out of the Persian Gulf.

It is a ticking time bomb for the entire global economy, and we are potentially facing catastrophic supply disruptions…

The scale of these observed and potential supply disruptions is without precedent. The 1973 oil embargo wiped roughly 7 percent of global oil production off the market but was politically reversible. The present crisis has reduced 13 percent of global supply, at least temporarily, and it is a physical disruption. The recovery of damaged infrastructure will take months or even years. Finally, the Middle East accounts for about 30 percent of total global oil supply; in a worst-case scenario, virtually all these volumes could be at risk.

The nations that will be the least affected are those that either do not need to import oil or that have accumulated large reserves.

For example, China possesses the largest strategic oil reserves in the entire world…

New data from the US government released this week shows just how aggressively China added to its oil reserves ahead of the war in Iran.

The US Energy Information Administration estimates China ended 2025 with nearly 1.4 billion barrels of oil stocked away, compared to 1.2 billion barrels among the 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which includes 413 million barrels in US coffers.

And the US has been drawing down its stockpile, with the latest US reserve levels showing about 405 million barrels following the sale of over 8 million barrels in the first half of April.

Even though the Chinese buy more oil and natural gas from the Middle East than anyone else, they will be able to function normally for many months.

Other countries will not have that luxury.

Before the war, it was being projected that the strategic reserves that the UK is holding can only last for about 90 days…

As of February 26, according to the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, the UK holds about 38 million ⁠barrels of crude oil and 30 million barrels of refined products, as strategic reserves. The reserves are thought to be able to last around 90 days.

Other European countries are in even tougher positions.

Shortages of jet fuel will probably start to show up first.

At this point, we are being told that Europe only has about six weeks of jet fuel left…

Jet fuel prices have risen even faster, doubling in price to almost $200 a barrel. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by for countries that don’t produce it or have limited supplies.

“In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” the International Energy Agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, told the Associated Press on April 16.

It appears to be inevitable that flights will be canceled and planes will be grounded on a widespread basis.

In fact, Lufthansa has already announced that it will be eliminating about 20,000 short-haul flights…

Lufthansa is cutting roughly 20,000 short-haul flights this summer, citing a spike in jet fuel prices that has rendered many routes “unprofitable” as the global aviation industry grapples with rising costs.

If the Strait of Hormuz is not opened soon, this will only be just the very beginning.

Just because we aren’t experiencing the full consequences of this crisis today does not mean that those consequences are not coming.

It is going to take time for the strategic oil reserves to run dry.

But once they do, things are going to get really crazy.

Magnitude 4.0 earthquake hits Missouri along New Madrid Seismic Zone

Magnitude 4.0 earthquake hits Missouri along New Madrid Seismic Zone

Zach Kaplan

A magnitude 4.0 earthquake hit Missouri on Thursday afternoon, with shaking felt in the surrounding states, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The earthquake rumbled a kilometer northwest of Cooter, Missouri, according to the USGS. The location is 80 miles north of Memphis, Tennessee, and just above the Arkansas state line, NewsNation local affiliate WREG reports.

The earthquake hit right along the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which the Missouri Department of Natural Resources describes as “the most active seismic area in the United States, east of the Rocky Mountains.”

Missouri's Cooter rattled by earthquake with shockwaves felt across multiple states

Chris Melore

A large earthquake has struck right in the heart of an ancient seismic zone feared to one day bring a catastrophic natural disaster to the Midwest.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) detected a magnitude 4.0 quake less than a mile from the small Missouri city of Cooter at 1.59pm ET on Thursday.

Although Cooter only has a population slightly over 300, the seismic event has already been reported by over 500 people across six states, including Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.

According to USGS, the shockwaves were felt over a distance of more than 300 miles, from western Tennessee to central Arkansas.

Residents have reported light to moderate shaking throughout the region, but there have not been any reports of injuries from local news outlets.

Cooter sits in the southeasternmost part of the state, known as Missouri's Bootheel. However, this region is also known for being in the heart of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ).

Although these light tremors are considered harmless and normal for the region, scientists have calculated that the NMSZ is entering the window where a massive seismic event could take place, affecting millions throughout the central US.

Between December 1811 and February 1812, a group of three powerful earthquakes over 7.0 in magnitude caused damage in multiple, including Cincinnati and St Louis, and was felt in states as far away as Connecticut and Louisiana.

Studies have found that large quakes like these could happen in the NMSZ every 200 to 800 years.

This means the region has just entered the range for the next major disaster in the Midwest to strike, although there is no guarantee it will happen this century.

Europe Turns on Turkey as the War Cycle Expands

Europe Turns on Turkey as the War Cycle Expands

Martin Armstrong

I have warned that once geopolitical tensions ignite, they do not remain contained, and what we are now witnessing is the steady expansion of conflict lines as Turkey is being recast from a strategic NATO partner into a geopolitical threat by the very alliance it once helped anchor.

The European Union has now openly shifted its tone, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen effectively grouping Turkey alongside Russia and China, stating that Europe must ensure it is not influenced by “Russia, Turkey or China,” which is an extraordinary statement when directed at a NATO member and signals a clear break in strategic trust, especially when such language aligns closely with broader geopolitical narratives emerging from the Middle East.

Not so coincidentally, tensions are escalating rapidly between Turkey and Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Israel faces a widening circle of adversaries and must prepare for emerging threats across the region. 

Turkish officials have responded by accusing Israel of deliberately seeking its “next enemy,” with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stating that Israel “cannot live without an enemy.” Bibi has remained in control by posturing Israel as on the defensive against external enemies, yet he has become the aggressor. It is Netanyahu, not Israel, who could not survive without an enemy to ward off.

When you step back and examine Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, this is a nation that has never accepted a subordinate role within Europe. Turkey has long viewed itself as a regional power with deep historical roots tied to the Ottoman Empire, and Erdoğan has made that posture explicit by declaring that no one can “threaten or bully Turkey,” reinforcing Ankara’s willingness to confront both Europe and its traditional allies when it perceives its sovereignty to be at risk.

What makes this situation far more dangerous is that Turkey is not a minor player that can simply be pressured into compliance, because it possesses one of the largest and most capable militaries in NATO, second only to the United States in manpower, with hundreds of thousands of active personnel, advanced drone capabilities, and a strategic geographic position controlling access between Europe, the Black Sea, and the Middle East, which makes any deterioration in relations far more consequential than policymakers appear willing to acknowledge.

Europe continues to depend on Turkey for migration control, regional security, and energy transit routes, yet it is now publicly labeling the nation as a threat. This is precisely how alliances fracture and friends turn into foes.

The growing hostility between Turkey and Israel introduces an additional layer of risk, because both nations operate militarily within overlapping regions such as Syria.

Europe’s decision to move against Turkey also risks pushing Ankara further away from the Western sphere and toward alternative alliances, including Russia and China, thereby accelerating the fragmentation of the global order and weakening NATO cohesion at a time when it is already under strain.

Broader conflicts are not triggered by a single event, but by a series of shifts in rhetoric, policy, all building momentum until the system reaches a breaking point. The reality is that Turkey is no longer treated as a reliable ally by Europe. As Israel elevates Turkey within its own threat framework, Europe appears to be following that trajectory, signaling a deeper realignment that will have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and the future of the Western alliance.

The Push For Globalism

The Push For Globalism

J.B. Shurk

When the Soros family or other globalist billionaires pay rioters to take to the streets, corporate newsrooms (often owned, directly or indirectly, by the same billionaires paying for the street theater) cover the anti-Western mayhem as if globalist temper tantrums were exotic breaking news (when, in reality, Western citizens are keenly aware that globalists excel at whining, breaking things, trespassing, stealing, and assaulting people).  When pro-illegal immigration crowds show up to burn the national flags of Great Britain, France, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, news cameras catch the action.  When those same throngs of foreigners wave the flags of their home countries, news cameras record the scene as if it were some righteous and historic fight for “diversity” and “multiculturalism.”  When the peoples of Europe whose ancestors have lived on the continent for several thousand years wave the flags of their political states, however, “reporters” pretend that the assembly of citizens is doing nothing but “promoting hate.”

What an interesting time to be alive.  For all of human history, when a group of foreigners occupied the territorial home of another people and waved the emblems of their foreign states in the faces of the natives, we recognized that event as an “invasion.”  Today, Western governments — stewing in the poisons of globalism and advancing a religion of self-immolation — treat invaders as citizens and citizens as nuisances. 

Across Europe, North America, and Australasia, globalist governments have lowered their drawbridges for outsiders while throwing insiders into the moats.  It is easy to imagine French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, or European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hiding in medieval castle keeps while instructing self-loathing guards to fire arrows only at the people waving French, British, or European flags. 

This “awakening” that is happening throughout the West — wherein ordinary citizens have begun to rebel against their governments’ suicidal policies — is picking up steam.  It seems to reflect a social consciousness that is increasingly aware that home governments have long been behaving as enemies.  “Enemy” is a strong word reserved for those who oppose us with great hostility or malice.  Generally, “enemies” lie on the other side of a country’s borders or across entire oceans.  But when Western governments invite mortal enemies inside their nations’ borders, those governments aid and abet the very people who wish us harm.  Traditionally, we call government officeholders who betray citizens “traitors.”  Traitors, of course, are enemies, too.

Globalism, by design, works to destroy national borders.  Its proponents pursue this goal through increasingly overt ways.  In Europe, the Schengen treaties and rules incorporated into European Union law have eliminated internal border controls between most countries.  Originally touted as a way to allow the citizens of European nations to travel freely throughout the continent, it was always a mass migration weapon that has enabled globalists to flood the discrete nations of Europe with foreigners from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.  In North America, the United Nations and globalist-funded NGOs spend billions of dollars each year in assisting migrants from South and Central America to travel through Mexico and flood the United States.  In both Europe and North America, the same wealthy, powerful globalists pursue one goal: to replace native citizens with so many foreign peoples that it becomes impossible for any nation to maintain a distinct identity.

Globalists are internationalists.  They seek to create a new world order with global government, international agencies, and international law.  One way to accomplish these objectives is to erase national borders and to invite an international population to resettle inside a formerly sovereign nation.  By doing so, both foreign allegiances and international laws are injected into the domestic governing system, whether the native population desires that result or not.

Just as the devil is the father of lies, globalism is the philosophy of liars.  Those liars call illegal immigrants “asylum seekers.”  They call foreigners who are financially dependent on government welfare “contributors,” “taxpayers,” and “economic boons.”  They call citizens who wish to enforce their country’s borders and protect their country’s culture “racists,” “bigots,” “fascists,” “Nazis,” and “xenophobes” (as if foreigners are known for flocking to racist, bigoted, fascist lands filled with Nazis who discriminate against outsiders).  Globalist liars pretend that borders are antiquated relics of “colonialism” and “imperialism,” even though it is foreigners who are colonizing nations by building little ethnic empires that refuse to assimilate.

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Trump Orders Navy to “Shoot and Kill” Mine-Laying Boats in Strait of Hormuz

Trump Orders Navy to “Shoot and Kill” Mine-Laying Boats in Strait of Hormuz

Emmitt Barry

President Donald Trump on Thursday issued a stark directive to the U.S. Navy, ordering forces to “shoot and kill” any vessels attempting to lay mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, signaling a sharp escalation in enforcement amid ongoing tensions with Iran.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump declared there would be “no hesitation” in neutralizing small boats suspected of deploying naval mines. The directive comes as U.S. forces continue active mine-clearing operations in the region, which the president said are now being intensified to “a tripled up level.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, through which a significant portion of global oil shipments passes. The administration has effectively sealed the waterway as part of a broader pressure campaign aimed at forcing Tehran into a negotiated settlement.

Trump’s announcement coincides with a fragile ceasefire, as the U.S. awaits a unified peace proposal from Iranian leadership through Pakistani mediators. While expressing willingness to allow time for negotiations, the president indicated frustration with internal divisions in Tehran, describing ongoing infighting between so-called “hardliners” and “moderates.”

Despite maintaining the ceasefire for now, Trump’s order underscores the volatility in the region. Iranian forces have reportedly seized foreign vessels and continue to pose a threat through potential mine-laying operations—one of the most disruptive tactics available in the narrow shipping corridor.

The president emphasized that U.S. forces currently hold decisive control over the strait. “No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy,” Trump wrote, describing the waterway as effectively “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to terms that meet U.S. demands, including halting its nuclear ambitions.

The developments reflect the high-stakes balance between military pressure and diplomatic outreach, as Washington seeks to compel Tehran to the negotiating table while preventing further disruption to global commerce and regional stability.