Despite Four Weeks Of Build-Up Trump’s Choices On Iran Are Still The Same

Despite Four Weeks Of Build-Up Trump’s Choices On Iran Are Still The Same

Moon of Alabama

Four week ago U.S. President Donald Trump threatened the Islamic Republic of Iran with another attack over its nuclear program.

It was a mistake because, as I explained, Iran is no easy target:

Iran however is also ready. It has increased its missile forces. It has promised to use it against U.S. positions in the Middle East and against Israel in retaliation to any attack. It has also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of the global oil supply is flowing through it. A selective closure, which would for example allow tankers destined for China to pass, is also a possibility. But even a partial prolonged closure would suddenly increase oil and gas prices all over the world. Republican chances to win in the mid-term elections would decrease.

Major Arab U.S. allies in the Middle East have rejected to take part in any adventure against Iran. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar have explicitly stated that they will not allow U.S. operations against Iran from or through their territory.
…
The arising conflict is unlikely to be as short as the recent 12 day campaign. It could easily escalate into attritional warfare. …

What Trump wants is another symbolic victory. He has started, like usual, with a gigantic threat in the hope to receive a minor concession that will allow him to chicken out. I doubt that Iran is in the mood to give him whatever he is asking for.

Since then the U.S. has beefed up its air defenses in the area and doubled the number of air-attack forces in the Middle East.

But this is still, says a U.S. military think-tank, far from enough to sustain a campaign:

The force is capable of punitive strikes on Iran and protection of U.S. allies and partners in the region. However, it lacks Marines, special operations forces (SOF) for raids or ground operations, and the logistics for an extended air campaign.

1. The current force level is comparable to that used in Operation Desert Fox, which entailed four days of long-range punitive strikes. …
2. The large number of cargo aircraft (C-17s and C-5Ms) and tankers (KC-135s and KC-46As) moving to the Middle East does not indicate any deployment of ground forces. …
3. U.S. forces lack special operations and ground units needed to conduct raids or operations ashore. …
4. The available forces are also insufficient for regime change beyond limited targeted strikes. …
5. Finally, there are not enough forces for an extended, multi-week air campaign. That would require a substantial logistical buildup, which is possible but would take additional time. …

Others analysts agree with that take (archived):

Israeli intelligence has concluded that even with the imminent arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford later this week, the US has military capacity to sustain just a four to five day intense aerial assault, or a week of lower-intensity strikes, an Israeli intelligence official told the FT.

Iran, in contrast to the U.S., is able to fight for a long time and especially to block the Strait of Hormuz, with global economic consequences, for several months.

The build up of U.S. forces over the last month thus has not changed the strategic balance.

Iran has the means to fight a long war in its near abroad while the U.S. depends on a logistic train that takes months to deliver.

The White House, when ordering the build-up, was falsely believing that Iran would fold under pressure:

Trump’s special envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, told Fox News over the weekend that the president is “curious” why Iran hasn’t “capitulated” to U.S. demands, given the looming threat of a military attack.

“Why, under this pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power over there, why haven’t they come to us and said, ‘We profess we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we’re prepared to do?’ And, yet, it’s sort of hard to get them to that place,” he said.

Had Witkoff and Trump bothered to learn a bit about the five thousand year old glorious history of Iran they would have known that threatening its people does not work:

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on social media, saying: “Curious to know why we do not capitulate? Because we are Iranian.”

As the Trump administration weighs an attack on Iran, the Pentagon’s top general has cautioned President Donald Trump and other officials that shortfalls in critical munitions and a lack of support from allies will add significant risk to the operation and to U.S. personnel, according to people familiar with internal discussions.

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed his concerns at a White House meeting last week with Trump and his top aides, these people said, cautioning that any major operation against Iran will face challenges because the U.S. munitions stockpile has been significantly depleted by Washington’s ongoing defense of Israel and support for Ukraine. …

The lack of good military options is why Trump dithers with the decision to wage another war on Iran.

But the clock is running. Keeping a large expedition force for months on station in the Middle East does cost a lot of money and will deteriorate its capabilities.

Despite the U.S. build-up of forces the basic strategic situation is unchanged from where it was four weeks ago:

That leaves [Trump] the choice to chicken out without winning or to bet the house and his presidency on escalation.

The Blessed Hope:

The Blessed Hope: Why the Rapture Should Be Every Christian’s Ultimate Anticipation

Tim Moore

What is the next thing you are looking forward to? The wedding of a child? The birth of another grandchild (as my wife and I are anticipating in April)? A long-anticipated trip or family gathering?

All of those blessed events are bound to inspire eager anticipation. But the best thing that Christians throughout the Church Age have awaited with great excitement is the Rapture of the Church. That is why Paul refers to His coming for us as our “blessed hope.” As we’ve said many times, because our Hope is bound up in the Person of Jesus Christ and His trustworthy promises, the phrase Blessed Hope refers both to Him personally and to the promise that He will come and gather us to Himself.

It is that upward call that will usher us in glorified bodies into the rarefied beauty of Heaven—to take up residence in the place He has prepared for us—that Paul says we should be groaning for. In fact, he assumes that every Christian is doing just that: “having the first fruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, waiting eagerly for our adoption as sons, the redemption of our body” (Romans 8:23).

Paul’s letter to the Thessalonians is the clearest scriptural reference to the Rapture, but it is not the only one. The concept of the “Rapture” is contained in 1 Thessalonians 4:17 where the word is typically translated as “caught up.” In the original Greek, the word harpázō was used. That word appears 14 times in Scripture and conveys the idea of being seized, snatched away, plucked up, or carried off by force. For example:

If Paul’s Spirit-revealed reference to what we call the Rapture was the only one, it would still be a clear and valid prophecy. But other Scriptures reference this promise to the Church: “Jesus said, ‘I will come again and receive you to Myself, that where I am going (to prepare a place for you) you may be also'” (John 14:1-4).

Paul revealed, “Behold, I tell you a mystery; we will not all sleep, but we will all be changed, in a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet; for the trumpet will sound, and the dead will be raised imperishable, and we will be changed” (1 Corinthians 15:51-52).

So many prophetic signs point to that glorious day. As described in Matthew 24 and Luke 21, those signs are multiplying. They are increasing in frequency and intensity. And, they are converging like never before—to the point that even the spiritually undiscerning are beginning to realize that something is afoot.

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Governments issue warnings, evacuations amid escalating tensions

Governments issue warnings, evacuations amid escalating tensions

World Israel News Staff

Governments are increasingly moving to protect their citizens as fears of regional escalation grow.

On Wednesday, the Australian government ordered family members of its diplomats stationed in Israel and Lebanon to leave both countries, citing what it described as a “deteriorating security situation in the Middle East.”

Canberra also advised Australian nationals to depart Israel and Lebanon using commercial flights while it remains possible, signaling concern that travel routes could soon become restricted if tensions worsen.

The move followed similar warnings issued a day earlier by Germany’s Federal Foreign Office, which released an advisory to German citizens in Israel and Lebanon amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and growing fears of potential military action.

According to reporting by Bild, the advisory urged Germans to stock up on essential supplies, familiarize themselves with nearby shelters, and prepare for the possibility of limited embassy assistance should regional airspace closures disrupt travel or consular operations.

Earlier in the week, dozens of staff members were evacuated from the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon via Beirut’s airport in what officials described as a precautionary measure, reflecting mounting concern among Western governments that instability along Israel’s northern front could rapidly intensify as regional tensions continue to rise.

With a third round of talks set for Thursday amid an unprecedented military buildup across the region, officials increasingly warn that a decisive moment may now be approaching, raising the stakes for negotiations widely viewed as a final opportunity to prevent escalation.

Killing Khamenei would not trigger collapse of regime, Iran's Araghchi says

'Not worried at all': Killing Khamenei would not trigger collapse of regime, Iran's Araghchi says

ByTOBIAS HOLCMAN

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday said that the Islamic Regime has a mechanism in place to replace the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in case the US decides to assassinate him.

"I've seen suggestions in US media about assassinating the Supreme Leader, but this is a system. It is a well-established mechanism that exists within the system itself, so nothing would collapse. Everyone would be replaced through established procedures," Araghchi said in an interview with India Today.

"Our system does not depend on individuals. It is supported by the people. So, I am not worried at all. Even in the middle of war, nothing collapsed, and we were able to continue our self-defense," he said.

Hezbollah will join war if US targets Khamenei, official warns

This comes after a Hezbollah official told AFP earlier on Wednesday that the Lebanese terror group will not get involved militarily if the United States carries out "limited" strikes against Iran.

According to the official, the organization would intervene if the United States tried to harm Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which was defined as a "red line."

Meanwhile, Israel has sent an indirect message to Lebanon that it would strike Lebanon hard, targeting civilian infrastructure, including the airport, in the event that Hezbollah gets involved in any US-Iran war, two senior Lebanese officials said on Tuesday in an interview with Reuters.

The IDF dealt heavy blows to the Iran-backed terror group during the war in 2024, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah along with thousands of its fighters and destroying much of its arsenal.

IDF destroys Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon

On Wednesday, the IDF released a report detailing the recent strikes against Hezbollah terror assets, which included missile launchers, weapon manufacturing sites, and command centers for elite units.

"Over the past several months, IDF troops have been operating in southern Lebanon to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and prevent attempts by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to rearm," the military said.

According to the brief, IDF operations included strikes against "weapons and terrorist infrastructure, including observation and firing positions in which anti-tank launchers were located."

The IDF said that the presence of weapons and terrorists in southern Lebanon constituted a "blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon."

Iranian Students Return to Protests Despite the Regime’s Bullets, Hope for Israeli Attack

Iranian Students Return to Protests Despite the Regime’s Bullets, Hope for Israeli Attack

Hugh Fitzgerald

After a one-month closure, Iran’s universities have opened again, and the students, unbowed and uncowed, have returned to protesting against the supreme leader (“Death to Khamenei”) and his regime. They also have let it be known that they would prefer that Israel, not America, bomb targets in Iran because of the Israeli Air Force’s “greater precision” and ability to minimize civilian casualties. Would Antonio Guterres care to comment?

More on the latest from Iran can be found here: “Iranians prefer ‘precise’ Israeli strike over US attack as protests resume at universities,” by James Genn, Jerusalem Post, February 22, 2026:

Iranians, while “waiting every minute and second” for a US strike against the Islamic Regime, would prefer an Israeli strike due to the precise nature of the Air Force’s strikes in June, while there is a perception that US strikes would “bring terrible destruction, like in Iraq and Afghanistan,” a local, identified as Ali told KAN Reshet Bet on Sunday.

Ali added that the Israeli strikes in June focused on targeted hits against “the mercenaries of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps” and the Iranian regime’s leadership, and did not cause harm to “ordinary citizens” or any economic infrastructure.

Additionally, he told KAN that the regime has “brutally murdered and dismembered” over 40,000 people, and injured hundreds of thousands more during the anti-regime protests over the past two months.

Ali, discussing the resumed university student protests, said that the regime has used brutal and savage force, murdering and kidnapping students to “choke the protests in their infancy.”

Israel’s public broadcaster also asked Ali if he was afraid to be interviewed by Israeli radio. In response, he quoted a Persian proverb, including that if the regime kidnaps and kills him, then “at least I will rest, at least I won’t feel hungry.”

The Iranian students have returned to their just reopened campuses, and to the battles with the Basij and with the man who sent them, the one they curse with “Death to Khamenei.” They hope, along with 85% of their countrymen, for an attack that will bring down the regime. And some hope that the attack will come from the Israelis, because of the greater “precision” of the IDF attacks as compared to those of the Americans during the 12-Day War last June. Zohran Mamdani wants to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he comes to New York. The Iranian protesters want to give him — “Bibi Gol” — a hug.