"Iran Is Losing Its Grip On Hormuz": Strait Traffic Explodes Nearly 400%

"Iran Is Losing Its Grip On Hormuz": Strait Traffic Explodes Nearly 400%

BY TYLER DURDEN

Summary:

• Nearly 200 Ships Navigated Strait Last Week, Up From 150 the Previous Week
• Trump Views Hormuz As "an American Territory" 
• Axios: 40 Tankers Transited Hormuz Friday Night, But Real Crisis Is Diesel

Hormuz Commercial Traffic Surges 

Shortly after President Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "an American territory" on Friday evening, the New York Postpublished a new report citing UK Maritime Trade Operations data showing that commercial traffic through the critical waterway has rebounded sharply as more vessels use a US-backed route along Oman's coast. This suggests that the US military presence and offensive operations in the region have degraded Tehran's ability to fully control the waterway.

Nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week, up from about 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to UKMTO data. Traffic has recovered to roughly 20% of prewar levels, when the waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

"It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait," Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN.

"The Oman route absolutely makes the most sense," added Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noting that it allows vessels to avoid the possibility of paying a toll to Tehran.

Let's revisit a mid-March note from Ex Uno Plures' Zoltan Pozsar, who explained at the time that Trump was "methodically building a portfolio of assets" to pressure China, centered on strategic energy-supply nodes and maritime chokepoints that have historically supported Beijing's access to cheap crude imports. His note highlighted the Panama Canal, Venezuelan oil flows, and the broader significance of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Axios political reporter and Middle East correspondent Barak Ravid reported early Saturday that 40 tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night, citing three unnamed US officials.

"Around 16 million barrels of oil moved out of the strait through the southern channel on Friday night," Ravid wrote on X.

Axios reported Wednesday that the US military had established a shipping corridor in the critical waterway, which carries millions of barrels of oil each day. There was no word from Ravid on whether the 40 tankers sailed through the new shipping corridor.

Even with these transits, the emerging energy crisis is not centered on crude availability, as SPRs around the world are being tapped to offset lost production in the Gulf region. Instead, the real crisis is materializing in the refined-products market.

The focus emerged at the start of the week when Bloomberg's front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 Index) topped $100 a barrel, as we warned: "Industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history."

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5 years into Taliban rule, Afghan Christians face growing threat of genocide

5 years into Taliban rule, Afghan Christians face growing threat of genocide

Christian Today

Christians in Afghanistan are at risk of a “genocide,” according to Martin Parsons, an expert in religious freedom and Islamic extremism and former aid worker to the country.

Writing for The Critic, Parsons spoke of his experiences in the 1990s following the first takeover of power by the Taliban. Christians who refused to renounce their faith were routinely executed, music was banned as un-Islamic, and allegedly immoral women were killed and thrown into rivers.

Five years ago, after two decades of insurgency, the Taliban returned to power as the Biden administration hastily ordered U.S. forces to withdraw from Afghanistan, bringing down the government established after the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.

This second incarnation of the Taliban has, according to Parsons, been less brutal and more concerned with international acceptance. Nevertheless, Christians remain in substantial danger.

Of particular concern is the Taliban’s apostasy law, which states that a sane adult male who converts from Islam will be given three days to “repent” or face execution. Women who commit the same crime are to be held in prison for life and subject to regular beatings. Children will be held until they reach maturity, at which point they will face the relevant punishment.

Many Islamic countries have draconian laws against conversion from Islam. Such laws usually make a distinction between converts and born Christians. In Iran, for example, it's not illegal to be a Christian, but conversion from Islam to Christianity officially carries the death sentence.

It's believed that there are around 10,000 Christians in Afghanistan, but according to Parsons, they're in considerable danger.

“Christians are uniquely vulnerable because, unlike other religious minorities, their existence was never acknowledged by any of the Western-backed governments that existed between the Taliban being ousted in 2001 and their return in 2021," he said. 

The only thing preventing the Sword of Damocles from falling on Afghanistan’s Christians is an apparent division within the Taliban leadership between those who want to go back to the '90s and those who desire a certain level of acceptance.

“Whilst some Afghans have been executed for apostasy and there is evidence of extra-judicial killing of Christians, as far as we can tell, there has not so far been any large-scale killing of Christians as apostates. In fact, on a number of occasions, the Taliban's appeal court has actually commuted sentences of execution for religious offenses down to terms of imprisonment," he wrote.

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Israel concerned over military escalation with Turkey

Israel concerned over military escalation with Turkey

Israel National News

Concern is growing within Israel’s defense establishment over the deepening confrontation with Turkey, amid fears that the escalating exchange of threats could restrict the Israeli Air Force’s freedom of action in Syria.

Channel 12 News reported that what began as a quiet operational move intended to establish clear boundaries has developed in recent days into an open confrontation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israel’s political and defense leadership.

Jerusalem now faces a dilemma over how to respond if Ankara attempts to redeploy advanced technological systems and weapons in Syria. 

The IDF strike on the Abu al-Duhur military airfield, located only about 70 kilometers from the Turkish border, was intended to signal to both Ankara and Damascus that Israel would not allow advanced drones, air defense systems or precision missiles to be deployed at the base.

Under Turkey’s plan, the systems were reportedly intended to operate under the guise of rebuilding the Syrian military, a move viewed in Israel as a direct threat to its air superiority.

The decision to carry out the strike was made after diplomatic efforts, including direct messages and talks conducted through the Americans, failed to prevent the development.

Ultimately, the IDF recommended a limited strike targeting the runways rather than the weapons shipments themselves, in an effort to send a warning without triggering an immediate escalation.

Against this backdrop, Defense Minister Israel Katz sharply criticized the Turkish president on Saturday and warned him not to test Israel’s resolve. “Erdogan is dragging Turkey into dangerous adventures in Syria," Katz said. “Israel will not allow any party to threaten its security."

Katz also mocked Erdogan’s speeches in the Turkish parliament in Ankara, describing them as “speeches full of empty rhetoric."

Report: Iran-linked hackers shut down UK power plant

Report: Iran-linked hackers shut down UK power plant

Israel National News

A British power plant was forced offline for four days in what The Telegraph reported on Saturday was an unprecedented cyberattack linked to Iran.

The incident is believed to be the first known case in which hackers affiliated with the Iranian regime successfully shut down a power facility in Britain. Officials reportedly consider it the most successful cyberattack of its kind against UK energy infrastructure.

The attack occurred last month, around the same time as a series of cyberattacks against water infrastructure in the United States that affected 12 states and raised concerns at the White House, according to The Telegraph.

British officials have declined to identify the affected facility, citing security considerations. The plant is understood to have been relatively small, however, meaning the disruption did not threaten Britain's overall electricity supply or energy production. Staff worked for four days to restore the facility.

The government subsequently briefed the chief executives of power companies and contacted businesses with guidance and instructions on how to respond. The incident was also reported to the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), the public-facing cybersecurity arm of GCHQ.

The NCSC declined to comment specifically on the incident. British and US intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned that hackers linked to Russia, China, Iran and North Korea regularly target critical infrastructure and government systems.

Previous cyberattacks have disrupted NHS systems, schools and industrial operations, including manufacturing lines at Jaguar Land Rover. Foreign hackers have also stolen customer data from retailers and voter information from the Electoral Commission.

Despite those incidents, there had previously been no known case of a cyberattack bringing a British power plant to a standstill.

The attack does not appear to have been intended to cause widespread harm to the public and reportedly went largely unnoticed, according to The Telegraph. One possibility being examined is that the operation was intended to demonstrate that hackers connected to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could penetrate British systems and disable sensitive infrastructure.

Britain has dozens of smaller power stations connected to the national grid. Many are gas-fired facilities that operate only intermittently, such as when low wind speeds reduce electricity generation. A prolonged shutdown at one such plant would not affect the wider grid, while some industrial sites and hospitals maintain independent generators.

The NCSC advised British organizations in March to reassess their cybersecurity measures amid the conflict. Its chief executive, Richard Horne, said in June that the agency had dealt with more than 200 attacks targeting critical national infrastructure during the previous year.

A New Front in the North: Israel Confronts a Nuclear Threat From the Terrorist Turned Diplomat

Israel Confronts a Nuclear Threat From the Terrorist Turned Diplomat

Valerie Locke

had found “a few tons of nuclear material that could be put to bad use” at an undisclosed site dating to the Assad era, which Syria’s transitional government voluntarily reported to the agency on July 17. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said the material, several tons of natural uranium metal along with quantities of graphite, would remain in Syrian custody under IAEA safeguards rather than be removed from the country, and asserted Syria’s “sovereign and legal right” to pursue a peaceful nuclear program. Al-Shaibani did not raise the possibility of the material’s removal at any point in his remarks. Separately, Axios reported that the United States, Israel, and Syria reached a quiet agreement to deal with nuclear material, including yellowcake, that Israel says the Assad regime stored at “Site 99,” material officials say cannot fuel a nuclear weapon but could be used in a radiological dispersal device, a so-called dirty bomb. Israeli forces reportedly bombed the site’s entrances shortly after Assad’s fall to block access to it, and Israeli officials told Axios they threatened further strikes and grew concerned that Turkey was helping Syria’s new government reach the material, before Washington brought the IAEA in to broker a resolution. That material, too, has not yet been removed from the country as of this week, according to US officials.

Israel now faces the prospect of a new and unfamiliar danger on its northern border: several tons of nuclear material remaining inside Syria, in the custody of a government whose president has declared his intention to pursue a nuclear program, and who Washington itself was hunting under a ten-million-dollar bounty less than a decade ago. 

This week’s disclosure that International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors found several tons of undeclared nuclear material inside Syria, and the resolution of a months-long, secret standoff between Israel, the United States, and Damascus over a second stockpile at a site known as “Site 99,” together mark the reemergence of exactly the kind of unconventional threat Israel has spent nearly two decades trying to ensure never took root on its border again, this time under a leader whose credentials for running the country holding it remain, at best, freshly laundered.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told reporters in Damascus this week that inspectors had found “a few tons of nuclear material that could be put to bad use” at an undisclosed site dating to the Assad era, which Syria’s transitional government voluntarily reported to the agency on July 17. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said the material, several tons of natural uranium metal along with quantities of graphite, would remain in Syrian custody under IAEA safeguards rather than be removed from the country, and asserted Syria’s “sovereign and legal right” to pursue a peaceful nuclear program. Al-Shaibani did not raise the possibility of the material’s removal at any point in his remarks.

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