PROPHECY UPDATE
PROPHECY RELATED NEWS AND COMMENTARY
Monday, March 16, 2026
Report: Israel and Lebanon to hold ceasefire talks in coming days
Assessing Iran’s Ability to Hold the World’s Oil Supply Hostage
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on March 14, 2026, that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all countries except the United States and Israel, describing it as closed only to “tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies.”
The statement came immediately after U.S. strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. The regime derives most of its revenue from oil exports.
Iran earned $65.8 billion from oil, petroleum products, and gas exports in the last fiscal year, while total government revenues were projected at around $45 billion, meaning oil export earnings alone exceed the entire state budget.
Iran sells about 80 percent of its oil to China. Beijing depends on discounted Iranian crude to reduce manufacturing costs. Iranian crude has traded at around $8 per barrel below Brent.
This discount helps lower production costs at a time when export volumes are at record highs but profit margins have collapsed.
The share of loss-making Chinese manufacturers has doubled since 2018, and producer prices have fallen continuously for more than three years.
While Iran attempts to hold the world’s oil supply hostage, the war is also restricting Iran’s ability to export oil. Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on February 28, all destined for China.
However, shipments of approximately 1.22 million barrels per day are significantly lower than pre-war levels. Iran had exported 2.16 million barrels per day in February, the highest level since July 2018.
Iran’s only alternative export outlet, the Jask facility on the Sea of Oman, which bypasses the Strait entirely, has rarely been used. Loading a single Very Large Crude Carrier can take up to 10 days there, compared to one or two days at Kharg Island, making it logistically marginal.
The U.S. struck more than 90 military targets on Kharg Island, destroying naval mine storage facilities and missile storage bunkers, but deliberately preserved the oil infrastructure.
President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “For reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the island.” Trump added, “However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”
Kharg Island processes 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. A CIA document from 1984 described the facilities as “the most vital in Iran’s oil system, and their continued operation is essential to Iran’s economic well-being.”
Although some people want to believe that Iran is in a position of advantage, it would be extremely easy for President Trump to crash Iran’s economy and take a chunk of China’s economy with it.
Iran’s social-media propaganda accounts are claiming that the IRGC will allow safe passage for tankers whose oil was paid for in Chinese yuan. Accounts supporting the regime are portraying this as the death knell of the petrodollar and claiming that America’s economic power is collapsing.
However, the yuan proposal is largely propaganda and de-dollarization signaling. Iran floated the idea, China’s own analysts warned against it, no country has formally agreed to the condition, and the few ships that have actually passed did not price their cargo in yuan.
The U.S. 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, is already conducting operations against Iranian threats in the area. At the same time, Iranian missile and drone strike volumes are down 92 percent since the conflict began.
A JINSA report from March 5 stated that approximately 75 percent of launchers were destroyed. Analysts attribute the decline to U.S. and Israeli strikes on launch infrastructure, underground facilities at Esfahan and Ahvaz, airbases, and production sites.
The drone picture, however, is different. Iran’s production capacity before the war was reportedly about 10,000 units per month, leading analysts to believe that Iran could sustain drone harassment in the Strait of Hormuz for months.
However, it is unlikely that Iran is still operating at pre-war production levels. CENTCOM confirmed that it continues to strike Iran’s industrial base, including factories and weapons warehouses.
Even before the war, Iran faced its most severe energy crisis in decades, with frequent power outages and disruptions to natural gas supplies. In summer 2024, Iran’s electricity shortage was estimated at 14,000 megawatts, equivalent to roughly twice the total electricity production of Azerbaijan.
The 12-day war in June 2025 damaged oil storage sites, refineries, and power stations. A year earlier, Israel blew up two major Iranian gas pipelines, disrupting supplies that provide roughly 70 percent of the country’s energy. More than 86 percent of Iran’s electricity comes from gas-fired plants, leaving the country dangerously exposed.
Even before the latest attacks, shortages of natural gas forced authorities to burn mazut, a cheap and highly polluting heavy fuel oil, to keep power plants running.
The initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 targeted Iranian oil refineries and export terminals alongside military sites, hitting Iran’s own production capacity in the opening hours.
By March 5, the combined U.S.-Israeli force had advanced to a second phase specifically targeting Iranian defense-industrial assets, including missile and drone production facilities.
The IDF issued evacuation warnings for the Abbas Abad Industrial Zone and Shenzar Industrial Zone in Pakdasht, Tehran Province, both key defense-manufacturing areas.
While America-haters are celebrating the IRGC taking such a staunch position against the United States and Israel, the threat has limited practical effect on its stated targets.
The United States imports only about 0.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf, roughly 7 percent of total U.S. crude imports and about 2 percent of overall petroleum consumption, with the vast majority coming from Canada and Mexico.
Israel does not import Persian Gulf crude and has no Israeli-flagged commercial vessels transiting the strait. Nearly all Hormuz oil flows to Asia. China accounts for approximately 38 percent, with India, South Korea, and Japan taking most of the remainder.
Terry James: Be Not Ignorant
Hoping this isn’t perceived as condescension aimed at the reader; it is, I’m convicted, good to think on what Paul was given by the Holy Spirit to urge us to not be ignorant. The instruction is crucial to understanding these prophetic days in which we find ourselves.
Paul uses this “be not ignorant” statement of instruction three times in the course of his epistles addressing Christians. These include his letters to the Romans, the Corinthians, and the Thessalonians. The emphasis on not being ignorant speaks of God’s strong desire for believers to understand what He wants us to fully comprehend.
While I present here all three of Paul’s instructions to “be not ignorant,” I want to look in particular at his letters to the Romans and the Thessalonians to imply that his teaching is especially relevant to where we are on God’s prophetic timeline.
Here are the three statements:
- Romans 11:25–32: Israel’s Condition, Purpose, and Future
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in. And so all Israel shall be saved: as it is written, There shall come out of Sion the Deliverer, and shall turn away ungodliness from Jacob: For this is my covenant unto them, when I shall take away their sins. As concerning the gospel, they are enemies for your sakes: but as touching the election, they are beloved for the fathers’ sakes. For the gifts and calling of God are without repentance. For as ye in times past have not believed God, yet have now obtained mercy through their unbelief: Even so have these also now not believed, that through your mercy they also may obtain mercy. For God hath concluded them all in unbelief, that he might have mercy upon all.
- 1 Corinthians 12:–11: Spiritual Gifts
- 1 Thessalonians 4:13–18: The Rapture
But I would not have you to be ignorant, brethren, concerning them which are asleep, that ye sorrow not, even as others which have no hope. For if we believe that Jesus died and rose again, even so them also which sleep in Jesus will God bring with him. For this we say unto you by the word of the Lord, that we which are alive and remain unto the coming of the Lord shall not prevent them which are asleep. For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first: Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord. Wherefore comfort one another with these words.
Paul here makes it profoundly important—even mandatory—that we who believe in the Lord Jesus Christ understand the things covered in these instructions.
Anytime God’s Word emphasizes something three times, the matters involved are vital to being understood—and believed.
So, we reflect on Paul saying that he would not have us to be ignorant about the mystery of Israel and all the things that involve His chosen people.
The apostle wants all generations of believers to understand that despite Israel’s opposition to the gospel of Jesus Christ and denial that He is their Messiah, the people of Israel are still His. They will at a future time be saved–that is, become believers in Jesus Christ as Savior and Messiah.
This will happen during a period of great trouble for them (Jeremiah 30:7). That Tribulation era will take place after the time of the Gentiles is fulfilled. This will be when all believers of the Church Age—the Age of Grace—are taken to Heaven in the Rapture.
During that time of Jacob’s trouble, God will bring out of the House of Israel a remnant of born-again believers who will be true Israel for all of eternity.
We must not be ignorant, then, of the significance of Israel. We must be aware that when Israel dominates the prophetic world horizon, the time of Christ’s return is very near. We must not be ignorant of Israel’s position, Paul is telling us.
The question to believers in Christ, then, should be: Is the nation Israel on the scene today in any significant way?
There is certainly no excuse for anyone, believer or not, to be ignorant in considering this question.
This brings us to Paul’s third exhortation.
Believers—Gentiles and Jews who have come to Christ for salvation during this Age of Grace—will be called into the clouds of Glory when Israel is at the center of world controversy. The last believer of this Church Age will accept Christ for salvation, and Jesus will call all Christians in the Rapture. This will be when the “fullness of the Gentiles will be come in,” as Paul prophesied.
The apostle told the Thessalonians all about that coming Rapture of the Church—God’s eternal family of believers who lived and died during the Age of Grace.
There is no excuse for us to be ignorant of just how near we must be to that call from our Savior. Can’t you sense the Holy Spirit’s assurance that this world so full of anti-God wickedness and turmoil is about to change in a twinkling-of-an-eye moment?
We are not to be ignorant. We’re to rely on God’s promise:
For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first: Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord. Wherefore comfort one another with these words. (1 Thessalonians 4: 17-18)