The Super El Niño is getting even stronger, the latest climate models have revealed.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), El Niño is expected to steadily strengthen into a 'strong' event between August and October.
This powerful climate pattern is expected to bring above–average temperatures all around the planet and cause huge changes in rainfall patterns.
While many countries are already facing one of the hottest and driest summers on record, experts warn 'this is only the warm–up act'.
The WMO now predicts that sea surface temperatures in key regions will exceed 2.9°C (5.2°F) above the seasonal average.
El Niño events typically reach their peak between November and February, and have their strongest influence on global weather during the start of the following year.
This means we are only just starting to experience the effects of what experts are calling the strongest El Niño event in recorded history.
António Guterres, UN Secretary–General, says: 'El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas.'
While each El Niño varies, the event typically brings increased rainfall in parts of
southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa
and central Asia.
In contrast, there will be drier conditions over Central America, northern South
America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia
El Niño and cooling La Niña events are part of a natural climate pattern called the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
In a normal year, the trade winds blow westwards across the Pacific, transporting warm water away from South America towards Australia and allowing colder water to well up along the coast.
But during the hot El Niño part of the cycle, these winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to build up in the tropical Pacific.
That concentration of warm water can raise the global average temperature and disrupt weather patterns on a global scale.
For the last few months, scientists have been watching with growing concern as these critical waters in the Pacific have warmed to record levels.
In July, sea surface temperatures exceeded 2.1°C (3.8°F) above average, but forecasts suggest that things are only going to get hotter.
To make matters worse, the WMO warns that El Niño has arrived alongside a climate phenomenon known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
This is where the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer while the eastern part becomes cooler.
Together with El Niño, that temperature gradient amplifies climate risks, including droughts, floods, and wildfires – especially around the Indian Ocean.
But what does this mean for you?
El Niño only has an indirect effect on the UK's weather, but global effects on this scale will have knock–on impacts.
WMO Secretary–General Celeste Saulo says: 'This El Niño, developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold.'
The most obvious consequence of a strengthening super El Niño is that the global temperature will be above average into next year.
El Niño isn't caused by climate change, but this extra heating does combine with the warming already being caused by human factors.
That means temperatures are likely to hit extreme levels all around the world, with the biggest effects being felt in Southern Europe, Africa, East Asia, Central America, South America, New Zealand, and the Caribbean.
This will also have a big impact on rainfall patterns between August and October this year.
