Over the past several nights, dozens of motorcycles have roared through Beirut’s Dahiyeh district, a Hezbollah stronghold. Riders honk incessantly, wave Hezbollah flags, block roads, and burn tires. Lebanese soldiers have detained some of them, but the noisy protests continue night after night, rattling the capital.
The unrest has come in response to a dramatic cabinet decision on August 5 ordering the Lebanese army to prepare a plan to disarm the Hezbollah terror group by the end of the year.
Two days later, the government formally approved the objectives of a US proposal presented to ministers, which includes a long-term ceasefire with Israel and a reconstruction program for Lebanon.
Reading the decision after the cabinet meeting, Information Minister Paul Morcos also committed to a “gradual dismantling of non-governmental armed organizations, led by Hezbollah.”
It was an almost unprecedented moment — an explicit mention of the group in the context of disarmament by the Lebanese government. Shortly afterward, the US envoy posted on X: “Congratulations to the President of Lebanon, the Prime Minister, and the Council of Ministers for making the historic, bold, and correct decision… This week’s Cabinet resolutions finally put into motion the ‘One Nation, One Army’ solution for Lebanon.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu linked the move to Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah last year, saying during a press conference this week that disarmament was happening thanks to the Israel Defense Forces’ successes.
For both Washington and Jerusalem, the decision is a milestone: after long negotiations, Lebanon has for the first time set a timeline for disarmament. The Lebanese president and prime minister have repeatedly stated in recent months that the state will have a monopoly on holding weapons. Now they appear to be following through on that commitment.
Hezbollah’s initial response was limited
Beyond sending motorcycles into the streets, Hezbollah has so far confined its reaction to defiant public statements. In its central message, the group condemned the order to dismantle it, declared that it would not relinquish its weapons, and stated that it would “pretend the decision does not exist.”
On Friday, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem directly threatened the government, claiming that there would be “no life in Lebanon” should its weapons be taken by force.
Any forcible seizure would lead to internal unrest, undermining the country’s national security, he warned. He further accused the government of buckling to Israel, saying its leaders were “implementing an American-Israeli order to end the resistance, even if it leads to civil war and internal strife.”
The Lebanese government is unlikely to be intimidated by the comments.
Moran Levanoni, a veteran analyst of Lebanon and Hezbollah at the Institute for National Security Studies, believes the group’s restrained public stance does not reflect its full range of possible responses — foremost among them armed confrontation with Lebanon’s security forces.
“Ultimately, if Hezbollah does not want to give up its weapons, the weapons will not be [in government hands],” Levanoni told The Times of Israel. “The Lebanese government is digging in its heels and sees this as a make-or-break moment. All the actors understand Hezbollah is in its weakest state. But it still cannot happen without Hezbollah’s agreement, because in Lebanon, there is always the possibility of descending into internal violence. If Hezbollah feels strong enough, and its Iranian backing is significant enough — meaning the Iranians support it — it will open fire [on the Lebanese army].”
Hezbollah’s military capabilities were significantly degraded by Israel over the last 22 months, after the group began firing on Israel’s north on October 8, 2023.
Israel intensified its military response to Hezbollah in September, detonating explosives hidden in the pagers and walkie-talkies of thousands of Hezbollah operatives, and launching a powerful air campaign alongside a limited ground incursion.
During the war, Israel killed Hezbollah’s powerful leader Hassan Nasrallah and many of his top commanders, while putting much of the group’s arsenal out of service.
In late November, a severely weakened Hezbollah agreed to bow out of the war, accepting an unfavorable ceasefire.
Since then, the IDF has continued near-daily strikes on Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon who are in violation of the ceasefire terms, which dictate that the terror group withdraw its forces north of the Litani River. By late July, IDF officials assessed that this pressure could push the group to consider disarming.
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