The White House has now formally confirmed that a recently disclosed "serious national security threat" is indeed related to a new anti-satellite capability that Russia is developing. But what could this capability be and why would Russia be perusing it? Let's talk about some possibilities.
"I can confirm that it is related to an anti satellite capability that Russia is developing. I want to be clear about a couple of things right off the bat. First, this is not an active capability that's been deployed. And though Russia's pursuit of of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone's safety," John Kirby, the Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council, said a press conference today. "We're not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth. That said, we've been closely monitoring this Russian activity and we will continue to take it very seriously."
He declined to speak to whether the U.S. government could defend against this capability if it were operational now.
U.S. officials have also so far still declined to say whether or not this new capability in question is either nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed, as a growing number of media reports citing anonymous sources have said. You can read more about what is already known about this threat in The War Zone's initial reporting.
"Our general knowledge of Russian pursuit of this kind of capability goes back many, many months, if not a few years, but only in recent weeks now has the intelligence community been able to assess with a higher sense of confidence exactly how Russia continues to pursue it," Kirby noted. He declined to provide more details when asked about the reported nuclear component of the capability in question.
"The United States has informed Congress and its allies in Europe about Russian advances on a new, space-based nuclear weapon designed to threaten America’s extensive satellite network," The New York Times reported earlier today, citing anonymous sources. "Such a satellite-killing weapon, if deployed, could destroy civilian communications, surveillance from space and military command-and control operations by the United States and its allies."
More recently, in 2022, Chinese military-linked researchers published a studydiscussing a concept involving detonating nuclear warheads in orbit to create radiation fields powerful enough to destroy or at least damage large numbers of an adversary's satellites at once. Those nuclear detonations would have other effects, as well.
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