Over the past seven weeks, there have been reports of people infected with the Marburg virus Disease, or M.V.D., in Equatorial Guinea And Tanzania. This is the first time either of these countries has reported this infection among their population.
The Marburg virus is one of two virus strains that can cause Hemorrhagic Fever and is considered highly infectious and potentially deadly. Because of the simultaneous outbreak in two countries nearly 1,800 miles apart, the C.D.C. and W.H.O. fear that there may be widespread infections throughout this portion of Africa.
And just like that, the three principal managers of the Covid-19 Pandemic focused once again on a potential continental, if not yet global, health threat. It’s easy to see the parallels between the Covid Virus and the Marburg Virus.
Interestingly both have, as a principal vector, Bats. That’s right. Those funny little creatures carry both types of virus. Research indicates that Marburg is transmittable among humans. And both Covid and Marburg are potentially deadly.
You may remember that Covid emerged in the Autumn and gained momentum during the Winter, a prime time for the emergence of virus infections. Although both Tanzania and Guinea are close to the Equator, both are south and are entering Autumn.
Because Marburg is so rare, it has been challenging to determine how deadly the disease is. WHO reports that the mortality rate is between 24% and 90% of the people who come down with Marburg succumb. That’s a gap wide enough to drive a truck through. As any statistician will tell you: that’s saying we don’t have a clue. On the one hand, if the mortality rate is 24%, it’s not deadly. However, at 90%, that’s among the most lethal known infections.
It bothers me that they chose the 90% mortality rate in reading some newspaper articles. They are certainly not “following the science.” Science says, “we’re not sure.”
So there you have it. A rare disease has emerged from Africa, the Marburg virus. Fewer than 50 people have been infected, and fewer than 15 have died. Finally, scientists are not able to predict its mortality rate.
But to understand where we’re going with this disease, it is equally, if not more important, to watch the reaction of the “managers,” the WHO and C.D.C. Both groups have sent Medical Response Teams to each country, Tanzania and Guinea.
Neither country invited them or felt they needed the help of the WHO or C.D.C. With fewer than 50 patients in the two countries, it seems like they would be fine without extra health staff.
But if there is one thing that the Covid Experience taught us, it is that once the managers take over, they have complete control.
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