Iran "Decision Week": Trump Teases "Easy Way Or Hard Way"

Iran "Decision Week": Trump Teases "Easy Way Or Hard Way" As Tankers Burn, Rial Craters And Tehran's Oil Minister Quits

TYLER DURDEN

Seven months into the war, the Iran story has settled into a familiar loop: Tehran sets conditions, Washington rejects them, a tanker catches fire, oil stays at $100, repeat... then a modest de-escalation before markets open on Monday morning and reversal around Friday's closer. 

This weekend, though, felt different. Nearly every piece of the puzzle moved at once, and the man at the center of it all made clear that he has a decision to make.

"We have a decision that I'll make about Iran. Iran's been decimated. So the only question is, it'll either be the easy way or the hard way," President Trump told reporters outside the White House on Saturday. Asked what was coming, he offered the kind of non-answer that tends to precede actual answers, or even more non-answers: "If I told you, you'd have a major story, right? But you'll see."

Here is what happened over the weekend, and what to watch in the week ahead.

The Camp David War Council

The "you'll see" makes more sense in light of what happened on Friday. CBS News confirmed that the administration's entire Iran brain trust met at Camp David: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, special envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine. Axios first reported the unannounced session, which Vance chaired. Two items were on the agenda: the Iran war, and the Saudi-Houthi war in Yemen that is now spilling into global oil routes (more below).

The White House has not said what was decided. One person familiar with the meeting told Axios that "things were decided or at least deeply discussed," which is a remarkably candid way of saying nothing, right about par for the course for an Axios "scoop." For context, the last time this crowd quietly decamped to the Maryland mountains to talk Iran was in June 2025. You may recall what followed (spoiler: it involved B-2s).

Meanwhile, the military is moving into position regardless. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group are heading to the Middle East with about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, due by the end of October. Bloomberg notes that this could give the US three carrier strike groups in the region, a concentration not seen since the opening phase of the Iraq war in 2003. Hegseth, for his part, called the US blockade of Iranian ports "ironclad."

We flagged the build-up when the third carrier was first announced in "Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast" (Oct 1). Trump himself had been dropping hints for days:

On timing, Trump told TIME last week that heavier strikes are "possible" after the Nov. 3 midterms. And according to Bloomberg, Iranian officials themselves see little chance of a deal before the vote and a "high chance of escalation" after it. So "decision week" may yet turn into "decision month" (this is still Washington, after all).

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Systematic Russian Strikes ‘Devastating’ Not Only Ukraine’s MIC, But State Administration as a Whole

Systematic Russian Strikes ‘Devastating’ Not Only Ukraine’s MIC, But State Administration as a Whole

Sputnik

“The impact is devastating when we’re talking about the infrastructure underpinning all this,” military expert Alexei Sukonkin told Sputnik, commenting on the Russian MoD’s announcement that it would intensify strikes after Zelensky declared he would “double down” on attacks on Russian energy sites in response to attacks.

“Striking a single factory, for instance, affects only that specific facility. But striking data centers causes a massive shutdown across the financial sector, traffic control systems, surveillance cameras, and even government administration – which also relies on electronic document management. When data centers housing this information are hit, everything goes offline,” Sukonkin explained.

Russia’s tactic of attacks on bridges in Kiev isn’t “just for the sake of dramatic visuals,” the observer added. “This is a strategic objective: to sever transport links in a city that is both the most populous and has the heaviest concentration of military-industrial facilities.”

“Striking bridges – even if they aren’t completely brought down – renders them inoperable after a certain number of hits…It also further degrades Ukraine combat potential, which is already limited compared to what it was. Ultimately, the path to victory must be built on the consistency and inevitability of these strikes,” Sukonkin said.

“It’s difficult to fathom what is going on in [Ukrainian leaders’] minds,” military analyst and Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine contributor Alexander Sinyugin told Sputnik, commenting on Zelensky’s threats to ramp up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure after Russia’s latest strikes.

“We can only surmise that Zelensky wants to raise the stakes in this conflict – not merely to secure more aid, but to draw European military forces directly into the fray,” the observer explained.

“In other words, he’s aiming to escalate the situation to the point where European countries deploy military contingents to Ukrainian territory, a move that would set the stage for a major war. By doing this, he’s seeking to prolong his hold on power and continue profiting from the conflict.”

A Ukrainian escalation against Russia would be designed, in Zelensky's mind, to provoke a Russian response in Ukraine that’s “even harder” and using “more powerful weaponry, thereby pushing his European handlers toward more decisive action.”

Responding to Zelensky's latest threats, Russia's MoD has vowed to ramp up its attacks on Ukraine's MIC and associated infrastructure.

Bessent Says Iran Faces Zero Oil Revenue As Tanker Loadings Collapse

"First Time In History": Bessent Says Iran Faces Zero Oil Revenue As Tanker Loadings Collapse

TYLER DURDEN

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined Mike Allen for a new episode of "The Axios Show," published Saturday morning.

Bessent spoke about the Iran war's effect on the cost of living for US consumers and his "I am the house" comment early last month, which warned anyone betting against the Treasury's defense of the long end of the market.

Beyond the broader global bond rout, his comments on the Strait of Hormuz added color to President Trump's economic stranglehold on Tehran.

"They are isolating them economically like this never happened before. You know, right now, the score: barrels out of the Strait: U.S. about 1.1 billion, Iran zero," Bessent told Allen.

Bessent continued, "For the first time in history, they, since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week. They will have no revenue."

Separately, last week, Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus, and Daan Struyven told clients that a "divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers" was underway.

The Goldman energy experts estimated that "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, back to prewar levels.

Also last week, Bloomberg News reported that Iran's crude loadings crashed to zero in August from around 250,000 barrels per day.

Data providers Kpler and Vortexa also recorded zero crude loadings last month.

The collapse in Iranian crude loadings suggests the US naval blockade is constraining Tehran's export options, while recovering flows from other Gulf producers point to eroded Iranian leverage over the strait. If sustained, Tehran's oil revenues would plunge, pressuring the regime to make a deal. 

Moscow vows to ramp up strikes on Ukraine after Zelensky’s threat

Moscow vows to ramp up strikes on Ukraine after Zelensky’s threat

RT

Russia will intensify strikes on military and defense-related facilities in Ukraine in response to Vladimir Zelensky’s threat to increase attacks on Russian oil refineries, the Defense Ministry warned.

In a statement on Sunday, the ministry said it has “taken note” of the Ukrainian leader’s promise a day earlier to step up attacks on Russian oil refineries in response to strikes on bridges across the Dnieper River in Kiev.

Russia has already ramped up strikes on military-related logistics – including the key port of Odessa – and the defense industrial base in recent weeks in response to Zelensky’s botched 40-day PR ‘pressure campaign’, which included long-range strikes targeting oil refineries and civilian infrastructure deep inside Russia.

“Following Zelensky’s statement today, strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on military and military-industrial facilities, as well as related infrastructure in Kiev and other regions of Ukraine, will be intensified,” the ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

The Defense Ministry reiterated that the Russian military has been responding to Kiev’s attacks on civilian targets in Russia that were meant to disrupt the State Duma election. It cited strikes on polling stations that killed six civilians, an attempted mass attack involving more than 1,600 Ukrainian strike drones against civilian sites in Moscow on September 19-20, and drone attacks aimed at disrupting the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.

It also cited a strike on residential areas in Belgorod that killed and wounded civilians and damaged apartment buildings, houses, and vehicles.

President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the strikes on oil refineries have cost around 1% of Russia’s GDP, but noted that the damaged facilities are being quickly restored, and that the nation’s energy system is operating with significant reserve capacity. Following Russia’s retaliatory strikes, Ukraine no longer has a steelmaking industry, he added.

Russia strikes data center and logistics hub in Ukraine – MOD (VIDEO)

The Russian military has struck a data center and a logistics hub in Ukraine, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said on Sunday.

The ministry said that Geran drones targeted a Nova Poshta logistics center in Chernomorsk and a data center in Odessa. Footage released by the MOD shows direct hits on both facilities. Russia has increasingly targeted Ukrainian data centers in recent strikes, with internet and mobile providers reporting damage and connectivity disruptions.

Additionally, Russian forces struck two dry-cargo vessels carrying military supplies to the port of Odessa, hit a drone command post, destroyed an air-surveillance radar, and struck military-used transport infrastructure, weapons depots, drone storage sites, and positions housing Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries across 147 locations. It later added that its forces struck Kiev’s Severny road bridge across the Dnieper, which it said was used to move troops and military cargo.

Russia has retaliated by sharply expanding strikes on Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities, shipping, and key ports handling military-related imports. The campaign has severely disrupted Ukrainian Black Sea shipping and logistics. Moscow maintains that it targets only infrastructure supporting Ukraine’s war effort.

President Vladimir Putin recently warned that Ukraine faces a “catastrophic scenario” after “opening Pandora’s box” by attacking Russian economic and civilian infrastructure, which ultimately failed to alter the course of the conflict. Putin also warned that with its “provocative actions,” Kiev was only hindering a peaceful settlement rather than bringing one closer.

Despite the mounting toll, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky vowed on Saturday to further intensify strikes on Russian oil facilities. The Russian Defense Ministry responded on Sunday by pledging to step up its own campaign. The ministry said Ukrainians “should blame only the head of the Kiev regime” for any further escalation, adding that his threats meant he “bears full personal and political responsibility for it.”

Russia's Strikes on Kiev and Other Regions are Response to Actions by Ukrainian Leadership

Russia's Strikes on Kiev and Other Regions are Response to Actions by Ukrainian Leadership

sputnik

Strikes on Ukrainian military facilities, defense-industrial sites and related infrastructure will be intensified following a statement by Volodymyr Zelensky, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The ministry said it had taken note of Zelensky’s statement that, in response to Russian strikes on defense-industrial facilities in Kiev where drones and missile systems used in attacks on Russia are produced, as well as on infrastructure used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Kiev would step up attacks on Russian oil refineries.

“Following today’s statement by Zelensky, strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on military and defense-industrial facilities, as well as related infrastructure in Kiev and other regions of Ukraine, will be intensified,” the ministry said.

The statement refers to attempts by Zelensky to disrupt Russia’s State Duma elections through attacks on civilian targets inside Russia.

"In response to these threats, the Russian Defense Ministry notes that it delivers massive strikes on Kiev and other Ukrainian regions precisely in response to the actions of the head of the Kiev regime. This concerns attempts by Volodymyr Zelensky to disrupt, through terrorist strikes on civilian facilities on Russian territory, the voting in the elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of Russia," the statement read.

The statement also cites what it describes as an attempted large-scale attack involving more than 1,600 Ukrainian strike drones against civilian targets in Moscow between September 19 and 20.

It further refers to attempted drone attacks aimed at disrupting the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2026.

Finally, it says the Kiev authorities carried out what it described as a deliberate terrorist strike overnight on residential areas of Belgorod, where, according to the statement, there were no military targets. The strike caused civilian deaths and injuries and damaged apartment buildings, private homes and personal vehicles.