The U.S. and Iran are teetering on the brink of a dangerous new phase of the war, as both turn to military force to break a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz that has paralyzed shipping and imposed costs on both sides.
Fighting flared for the first time in about a month Monday, with the U.S. Navy trying to open the waterway and Iran hitting commercial ships to keep it closed.
The U.S. said it used Apache helicopters to sink Iranian speedboats harassing traffic in the strait. Iran hit a critical oil port in the United Arab Emirates and several vessels around the strategic waterway.
The return to a more openly violent chapter will test both sides. Each has reason to try to force an end to the current paralysis in the strait. But they also face substantial risks if the skirmishing escalates out of control—for Iran, greater damage to its economy and leadership, and for President Trump, deeper involvement in a war that is unpopular at home.
Bryan Clark, a former senior U.S. Navy official now a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, said the new phase of the conflict is likely to play out at sea in a fight that could resemble the Tanker War that Iran and Iraq fought over control of the waterway in the 1980s.
That sets the stage for what could be a long and slow-burning contest—less intense than the broad air campaign of the first five weeks, but marked by periodic violence that could escalate if either side miscalculates.
“They’re trying to basically pressure the Iranians to capitulate and restore access,” Clark said of the U.S. “And since that didn’t happen, they’re now forced to try to escort ships.”
The flare-up on Monday, the worst since President Trump declared a cease-fire in early April, came hours after Trump announced a new initiative to get ships that have been bottled up in the Persian Gulf out through the crucial waterway.
Iran’s constriction of the strait and an American blockade of Iranian ports have deprived global markets of millions of barrels of oil, pushing up the price of gasoline and jet fuel and piling up pressure on Iran’s economy.
Trump told a Fox News reporter that Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targeted U.S. ships.
The U.A.E., which has backed tougher action against Iran, repeatedly sounded alerts Monday for the first time since early April, saying it was targeted by four missiles and a number of drones. Students were told they would go back to online schooling, and a number of flights were canceled amid the threats.
Oman said a company’s housing complex was hit.
