ynet
Iran has emerged from six months of intermittent war with the United States more confident in its ability to inflict damage across the Middle East and increasingly convinced that it can sustain the conflict for months, according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments cited by The New York Times.
Officials familiar with the reports say Tehran now has a clearer understanding of both its own military capabilities and the limits of American power. That confidence is feeding concerns in Washington that Iran’s leadership may be prepared to escalate after weeks of renewed fighting.
The shift has become visible on the ground. Over the past week, Iran has targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and American forces in the region, while the United States has carried out strikes inside Iran that killed military personnel and civilians.
The latest exchanges have remained relatively limited. But officials who reviewed the intelligence said the assessments indicate that Iran’s hard-line leadership may be considering a broader confrontation.
The reports also suggest that a comprehensive agreement ending the war remains difficult to imagine. U.S. officials see little indication that Tehran is preparing to make major concessions, while some believe Iran is content to prolong the confrontation and deepen President Donald Trump’s political problems ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Trump is not currently pursuing negotiations. Instead, he has argued that economic pressure will eventually force Iran to make concessions over the Strait of Hormuz and perhaps, later, its nuclear program.
U.S. officials say Tehran could soon repeat some of the tactics it used in July, when Iran attacked American military bases across the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan, struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere.
Washington is also closely watching Iranian cyber activity.
U.S. officials believe Iran-linked hackers were most likely responsible for cyberattacks against more than 100 American water systems in late July. None of the attacks is known to have made drinking water unsafe, but some caused disruptions that required manual intervention and precautionary boil-water advisories.
Iranian hackers have also shown interest in U.S. oil and gas infrastructure, according to current and former officials, although such systems are generally considered more difficult to penetrate. It remains unclear whether any energy infrastructure has actually been breached.
There are indications that Iranian hacking groups have regrouped after suffering losses early in the war.
Even when cyber operations fail to cause major physical damage, former intelligence officials and security experts say Tehran may see them as a useful way to increase public anxiety and weaken American support for an already unpopular conflict.
Alex Orleans, a former U.S. government cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups, said Iranian cyberoperators are likely feeling more confident.
“Even if such attacks fail to meaningfully unsettle the American public, they can still play into a broader effort to exhaust domestic patience with this administration’s handling of the conflict,” he said.
Vice President JD Vance also acknowledged Thursday that Iran was likely to continue trying to disrupt the United States, although he played down the scale of the threat.
“If you look at the Iranian ability to disrupt the normal lives of Americans, I think it is quite limited,” Vance said. “It’s not zero, but it’s quite limited. I’d be much more worried about cyberattacks from other actors.”
Trump predicted a swift and decisive victory when U.S. and Israeli forces launched the war on Feb. 28. Six months later, critics of the administration argue that Washington underestimated Iran’s ability to absorb military and economic punishment.
Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, said Tehran appears increasingly confident in its position.
