PROPHECY UPDATE
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Tuesday, June 3, 2025
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Train sabotage in Russia was Ukrainian ‘terrorist attack’ against civilians – Moscow
The recent acts of railway sabotage in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions were “terrorist attacks” planned by Ukraine to cause maximum civilian casualties, the Russian Investigative Committee has said.
The two incidents took place on Saturday evening and Sunday morning, respectively. In the first case, a bridge fell in front of a moving passenger train in Bryansk Region. The second incident took place in Kursk Region when a railway bridge collapsed under a moving freight train. In total, seven people died and 113 were injured.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Investigative Committee said that Moscow is treating both sabotage acts as “terrorist attacks.”
“It is clear that the terrorists, acting under the direction of the Kiev regime, planned the attacks with maximum precision to ensure that hundreds of civilians would be affected,” a spokeswoman said. The committee added that investigators had recovered explosive device fragments and other physical evidence from the scene and had questioned witnesses, injured passengers, and rail railroad employees.
Earlier, Russian business daily Kommersant reported that investigators believe the saboteurs were likely using a US-made C-4 explosive device. They reportedly came to this conclusion after retrieving a 10kg bomb that did not detonate.
Both attacks came shortly before the second round of Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul and amid a drastic increase in Kiev’s drone raids into Russia, which Moscow says are aimed at derailing the peace process.
The negotiations in Türkiye brought no breakthroughs, but the sides agreed to conduct the largest prisoner exchange to date and indicated that direct contact would continue. Moscow and Kiev have also exchanged memorandums containing drastically different visions for ending the conflict.
Russia insists, among other things, that Kiev withdraw all troops from the regions that have joined the country in public referendums, agree to bloc neutrality, disband nationalist armed groups, and limit its military capabilities. Ukraine, however, continues to oppose the neutrality principle, wants to have an opportunity to deploy foreign troops on its soil, and is against recognizing any territorial losses.
Will Russia’s Retaliation To Ukraine’s Strategic Drone Strikes Decisively End The Conflict?
Everything therefore depends on the form of Russia’s retaliation; the US’ response; and – if they’re not canceled as a result – the outcome of tomorrow’s talks in Istanbul. If the first two phases of this scenario sequence don’t spiral out of control, then it’ll all depend on whether Ukraine makes concessions to Russia after its retaliation; Russia makes concessions to Ukraine after the US’ response to Russia’s retaliation; or their talks are once again inconclusive. The first is by far the best outcome for Russia.
The second would suggest that Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes on Russia’s nuclear triad and the US’ response to its retaliation pressured Putin to compromise on his stated goals. These are Ukraine’s withdrawal from the entirety of the disputed regions, its demilitarization, denazification, and restoring its constitutional neutrality. Freezing the Line of Contact (LOC), even perhaps in exchange for some US sanctions relief and a resource-centric strategic partnership with it, could cede Russia’s strategic edge.
Playing With Fire
The strike, once again, targeted Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which can serve only two aims:
Ukrainian leadership is desperately trying to fully commit NATO to the war in Ukraine, or
Strikes are preparation for NATO's nuclear strikes on Russia.
We listed these in our May 30, 2024, warning on the possibility of a nuclear strike in Europe, after Ukraine had struck Russia’s early-warning (over-the-horizon) radars. The strikes on the over-the-horizon radars were already a dangerous provocation, which had zero relevance to the war in Ukraine (radars look for launches of intercontinental and medium-range ballistic missiles at high altitudes). Sunday, however, was a provocation at an entirely different level.
Firstly, this was (again) a strike to Russia’s nuclear forces, which enables (essentially demands) a response with nuclear weapons according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. This is why we issued an updated warning of a nuclear strike in Europe yesterday.
Secondly, START mandates the outside storage of strategic (intercontinental) bombers. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty requires bombers to be stored outside so that they can be tracked with satellites. Essentially, this now means that also the U.S. strategic fleet can be attacked by anyone with access to drones and explosives. The path to nuclear sabotage at a whole other level has been opened (to note, if the U.S. strategic fleet had been hit, missiles would probably already be flying). What happens to START is very unclear now. Russia suspended its participation in February 2023 but did not withdraw from it fully.
Thirdly, according to Axios, the administration of President Trump would not have been informed about the strikes. This implies that the regime of President Zelenskyy is now fully at the service of the ‘war-triad’ consisting of the U.S./NATO Deep State, the military-industrial complex, and the ‘group-over-groups.’ This indicates that President Trump is losing his ability to steer the conflict. The repercussions of this are hard to quantify as of yet, but nothing good can come of a rogue state attacking a nuclear power.
Most importantly, we need to understand that this was not about Ukraine vs. Russia nor NATO vs. Russia. An effort to unleash a nuclear war is a threat against all humankind. I cannot emphasize enough how dangerous and reckless such a “game” is.
It’s my current thinking that Russia’s response will take some time coming, but it’s likely to be devastating when it comes (Russia may also declare war on Ukraine, albeit I still doubt it). The Kremlin probably wanted to play the charade of peace negotiations in Istanbul first. The peace negotiations are a charade because neither side is currently seeking genuine peace. Russia does not trust the Zelenskyy administration nor European leaders, and President Zelenskyy cannot seek peace because it would probably have him killed. Remember also that if Russia strikes Ukraine with nuclear weapons, it is unlikely to be met by NATO except maybe through sanctions.
On January 11, based on our Peak Escalation hypothesis, we warned that
There will be attempts to postpone or completely derail the peace process in Ukraine during H1 2025.
If this (peace in Ukraine) comes to be, as we suspect it eventually will, another front with Russia will be opened somewhere in the axis of Poland/Belarus, Baltics or the Nordics, shortly after.
We, most unfortunately, have been following this to the letter. Ukrainian strikes on the eve of the second round of negotiations in Istanbul made sure that we are set to follow this through. Alas, war drums beat loudly over Europe, yet again.
Remember also that all major European conflicts have started between 22 June and 1 September. Let’s see how “hot” this summer becomes.