Gilbert Doctorow is a thoughtful and well-informed commentator on the challenges with which the West confronts Putin. In his most recent postings, he asks and answers the questions, “What do the Russians think of Putin? Does his war of attrition strategy today enjoy support? Or do Russians want to end the War as quickly as possible by a decapitation strike on Kiev?”
Judging by the discussion on controlled Russian state television, Doctorow concludes that the thinking class, the top echelons of power, sees another major Western escalation on its way with the provision of long range nuclear capable missiles to Ukraine along with $140 billion euros in stolen Russian assets. This will prolong the conflict for several years while Europe builds up its war fighting capability. The alternative of an Oreshnik strike on Kiev that would end Ukraine’s fighting ability looks to be the better choice. In short, the conflict has gone on too long. Time to bring it to an end. But can Putin bite the bullet and end the conflict with a victory?
Having watched Putin’s address to the Valdai Discussion Club, Doctorow concludes by choosing to ignore the new and increasing threats the West is presenting to Russia and relying instead on good relations with Trump, Putin has brought himself a big problem of his own making.
Doctorow goes on to say:
“I have over the past year spoken very critically of Paul Craig Roberts for his repeated denunciations of Putin as the man leading us to WWIII by his constantly turning the other cheek and allowing Russia’s red lines to be crossed. Now, regrettably, I admit that PCR was right. Yesterday at the Valdai Club Putin lost my respect and I think I am not the only one who understood that he is showing cowardice. The biggest loudmouth Russophobe on Capitol Hill, Senator Lindsey Graham must be sipping champagne right now.
“After all, the whole sense of the Oreshniks is that they can get the job done without opening the Pandora’s box of tactical nukes. And yet Putin has just pulled up his own red lines with respect to American long-range missiles being supplied to Kiev. A year ago, his policy line was that the supplier of the missiles and the provider of all the target input necessary to operate the rockets (USA) would be considered a cobelligerent, inviting a Russian missile strike in response. And what did we hear yesterday? That these missiles do not change the situation on the battlefield. That is a barefaced lie.
“The do or die moment for Russia is fast approaching. And with Putin in charge, it looks like ‘die.’
“I say this as an outsider. After all, it is for the Russians to decide who governs them and they need no coaching from us. But I – and you – are bystanders whose survivability on this planet depends on Russia’s leader making the right decisions. His apparent belief yesterday that ingratiating himself with Donald Trump is more important than publicly and forthrightly defending Russia’s red lines against what Trump and Merz and Starmer and Macron and Ursula von der Leyen are plotting puts us on a direct path to WWIII.”
Reading Doctorow’s comments on Putin’s Valdai speech, I get the impression that Putin and Lavrov have chosen to evade reality rather than to confront it. I am unsure I would do any better when the reality is nuclear war. But it doesn’t have to be nuclear war. Putin has had the soft voice but not the big stick. Consequently, the Kremlin seems irresolute and vulnerable. Here are Doctorow’s comments. Read them and make up your own mind.
“Yesterday I commented on President Putin’s speech to the Valdai Discussion Club gathering in Sochi, saying that it ignored the new and very serious threats that the USA and Europe are presenting to Russia and only repeated the now stale litany of Putin remarks on how the confrontation with the USA and NATO developed from the 1990s to today and how the new world order is unfolding with the support of the Global South.
“Actually, the speech was worse than I described.
“Meanwhile, on the sidelines, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has compounded the damage to Russia’s standing by his latest interviews dealing with the question of U.S. supplied Tomahawks to Kiev. One such interview may be watched in English.
“Lavrov is talking nonsense. If Tomahawks end up in Ukraine IT WILL CHANGE THE MILITARY SITUATION. Here again, a leading spokesman for Russia is talking nonsense because the Kremlin is trying to differentiate between the bad Europeans and the good Americans.
“Not only are the Tomahawks a serious challenge to Russia’s air defenses because they are nuclear capable and may be carriers of a first nuclear strike intended to be a knock-out blow, but the handover of such missiles to Kiev clears the way for Germany’s Chancellor Merz to do what he has wanted to do from the moment he took office, to deliver German Taurus missiles to the Ukrainians. Merz was insisting that the USA go through the door first before he would act.
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