YAAKOV LAPPIN
Under the personal and ideologically-driven Islamist direction of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey aspires to actively construct a strategic encirclement of Israel, an Israeli terrorism expert has warned, days after reports emerged stating that the Trump administration is weighing allowing Ankara to purchase F-35 fighter jets.
Turkey's willingness to back U.S. President Donald Trump's 20-point truce plan has reportedly increased its chances of acquiring the stealth aircraft, though this has yet to be confirmed.
Dr. Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University in Herzliya and a member of the Israeli non-partisan group Coalition for Regional Security, told JNS in recent days, "If Erdoğan's plan to take over Syria in the military domain succeeds and he receives approval for a military force, legitimacy and Qatari money for construction in Gaza, Turkey will largely replace the Iranian dream of enclosing Israel in a more dangerous military and political ring."
Karmon warned that "when it comes to Israel, Erdoğan is the one who sets Turkey's policy and he is personally responsible for the deterioration of bilateral relations between the countries for years. Erdoğan has strong anti-Israel feelings, based on deep-rooted religious beliefs. Erdoğa simply despises Israel."
Karmon explained that this animosity is channeled through a calculated political strategy. "President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attaches great importance to the Palestinian issue, presenting himself as the protector of the Palestinians and of the holy Islamic sites in Jerusalem," he said. "By exploiting the Palestinian issue, Erdoğan is trying to present Turkey to the Arab public as a leading power in the Middle East and to achieve Islamic legitimacy in the region."
This strategy has included long-standing and overt support for the Hamas terrorist organization. In March 2006, Erdoğan invited a high-ranking Hamas delegation to visit Turkey, immediately after its success in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, Karmon recalled, contrary to the advice of his advisers and the positions of the Turkish media.
"Since then, political and operational relations with Hamas have continued to grow," Karmon said.
"On Oct. 11, 2023, Erdoğan said that Israel's siege and bombing of Gaza in response to the Hamas attack was a disproportionate response, a 'massacre' in his words, but he did not condemn the Hamas massacre of civilians," Karmon said.
This escalated significantly when Erdoğan stated in March 2024 that Ankara "firmly supports" Hamas.
"'No one can make us declare Hamas a terrorist organization,' the Turkish president said in a speech in Istanbul, while comparing Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government to 'Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin, like the Nazis of today,'" Karmon said.
This rhetoric was followed by action, with Erdoğan severing all economic ties with Israel in April 2024 and joining South Africa's ICJ petition accusing Israel of genocide.
Karmon warned that Turkey is now leveraging the collapse of the Assad regime to dramatically increase its influence in Syria, with direct implications for Israel.
"With the fall of the Assad regime and the decline in the status of its two major allies, Russia and Iran, in Syria, Turkey seized the opportunity to significantly increase its influence in the country in the field of defense (among others), in an apparent attempt to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate," he said.
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