Amir Tsarfati: The Real War Has Not Yet Begun

Amir Tsarfati: The Real War Has Not Yet Begun

I used to tell tour participants who were worried about safety in Israel, “You’ll be in more danger on your drive to the airport than you will be here in Israel.” That is no longer the case. There is an unease in my country that you can feel everywhere you go.

The first source of that anxiety comes from being in a nationwide post-trauma. Parents no longer let their kids go out on their own. Children sleep in the beds with their parents, certain that tonight will be the night the men come bursting into their homes. We are a small nation, which means that every citizen of Israel was and is within striking range of the genocidal terrorists who perpetrated the October 7 attack. So many cannot close their eyes at night without asking, “What if that had been my family,” then picturing the horrific scenario playing out. This is a wounded society, and those wounds will take years to heal.

The other source of our unease is the knowledge that the real war has not yet begun. The ground war in the south is prepared, but the invasion hasn’t yet occurred. The IDF is holding back for a couple reasons. First, every day that passes allows Gaza to be softened up even more. Civilians have been warned for well over a week to leave the border regions and head south. The expectation is that all those still left behind are Hamas and Islamic Jihad who are hiding out in their deep and intricate tunnel systems. The more the IDF can deal with these terrorist organizations from the air, the safer it will be when ground troops march in.

The second reason for the delay is that the U.S. has asked Israel to hold off on the ground attack. They are still in the process of preparing their military so that it is fully primed and protected for the next phase of the war. There is nothing binding in their request, but the Israeli government is honoring it. First, because America has been a good military friend and a great supplier of weapons and materiel. Second, because it’s the right thing to do. When the IDF feels they have weakened Gaza enough for invasion and the U.S. military is ready for the next step in the war, then Israel’s military will cross the southern border to root out the terrorists.

But it is not just the war in the south that has yet to begin. In the north, Hezbollah hasn’t begun their attack. When they do, it will launch with tens of thousands of rockets fired across the border from Lebanon into Israel. All you need is basic math to understand Israel’s unease. If Hezbollah fires only 25,000 of their rockets and the Iron Dome takes out 90% of them, that means that 2500 missiles will still land in the cities and towns of Israel with devastating effect.

That’s just the air attack. Hezbollah claims that they have 100,000 suicide bombers prepared to cross Israel’s northern border. These are terrorists brainwashed in a culture and religion that celebrates death. This zombie-like horde is excitedly anticipating their opportunity to invade Israel so that they can kill Jews and become martyrs for Allah. How must our culture which loves and respects life confront such a violent death cult? With devastating force. Words our military can’t worry about in times such as these are “proportionality”, “moderation”, and “compromise”.

What’s taking place in Israel is still in its beginning stages. The situation remains volatile and ever-changing. As the days move forward, there are certain areas to which you should direct your attention:

The Northern Border

The IDF will take care of Gaza in the south. Hamas has been battered and will soon be no more. But Hamas is to Hezbollah what a schoolyard bully is to Mike Tyson. Hezbollah in Lebanon has finances, training, weaponry, and organization that Hamas could only dream of. They also have a close and direct relationship with the especially violent Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC – Iran’s military). When the northern war begins, Israel will face a force far stronger and just as ruthless as the one that invaded from the south.

The Houthis in Yemen

Already this Iran-allied rebel group has fired a major air assault toward Israel. Four cruise missiles and fourteen drones were launched at the southern Israeli city of Eilat. Thankfully, an American guided-missile destroyer, USS Carney, shot them down before they could reach their destination. Iran has well-supplied the Houthis in their fight against Saudi Arabia, and it appears that the ayatollahs are ordering these terrorist rebels to begin directing some of their weaponry Israel’s direction.

Iran

At the center of it all is Iran. This Islamist regime has spent many years and countless dollars recruiting, training, and arming thousands upon thousands of terrorist warriors in a network of proxy militias. Mostly located in Iraq and Syria, they also extend south to Yemen, southwest to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and west to Hezbollah. The ultimate goal of Iran, and thus of the militias, is the destruction of Israel and the eradication of the Jews. This is why it is so frustrating to see the current US administration release $6 billion to Tehran. That money will not be spent on the welfare of the Iranian people. It will be funneled into more of what we saw take place on October 7. It will also be directed at the increasing attacks on US troops in Syria. Just last week alone, two dozen US personnel were injured by drone attacks. And yesterday threats were made by another of Iran’s armed militias against American bases in UAE and Kuwait.

The United Nations (UN)

Already the nearly global support of Israel after the attacks is beginning to wane. The bellwether of international sentiment has always been the UN. On Tuesday, Secretary-General António Guterres made a comment at a Security Council meeting that the Hamas attacks “did not happen in a vacuum.” He went on to give justification to the butchering of babies and burning of families by claiming that the Palestinians live “under a suffocating occupation.” That anyone can provide a rationale for what was perpetrated is appalling. But his sentiment is spreading wider with each passing day. Once the southern attack begins and the northern front opens up, expect debate to begin on resolutions condemning Israel for disproportionality. It will not be too long before the first resolution censuring Israel is passed, and the world slips back into its default state of antisemitism.

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