Could Iran Launch A Preemptive Attack On Israel"

Could Iran launch a preemptive attack on Israel?

JNS

As Iran’s nuclear program continues apace, the debate in Israel and abroad has focused almost exclusively on the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Little if anything has been said, at least in public, regarding the possibility that Iran might preempt a potential Israeli offensive.

However, an Iranian attack might be closer than it appears. In recent months, Israeli leaders have been issuing increasingly dire warnings of pending action in an apparent effort to convince Iran to curb its nuclear progress. The most recent of these threats came on July 18 when IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi stated, 

“The IDF continues to prepare vigorously for an attack on Iran. … Preparing a military option against the Iranian nuclear program is a moral obligation and a national security imperative.” 

He added that the military option is “at the center of preparations in the IDF and include a variety of operational plans, the allocation of many resources, the acquisition of appropriate weapons, intelligence and training.”

For Iran to ignore such threats would be irrational unless its leaders believe Israel is only posturing and will not dare attack. Tehran might also think that as long as Iran avoids crossing the nuclear threshold, an Israeli attack is unlikely. Finally, the Iranians might dismiss the Israeli warnings if they believe that, due to their elaborate passive and active defenses, their nuclear sites can withstand an Israeli attack.

Tehran could thus opt for a “second-strike posture,” choosing to absorb an Israeli offensive while fully expecting that its nuclear installations—and its sizable if well-hidden missile force—will survive intact. Iran could then justify devastating counter-attacks and even gain international support for them.

Yet if Iran adopts a worst-case scenario, which is common practice in intelligence assessments, Israel’s stern warnings might push it to embrace a first-strike recourse.

Moreover, the belief that Iran will forgo the preemptive option is based on the false belief that an attack on Israel would be launched from Iranian territory. This assumption completely ignores the role Iran’s faithful proxy, the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah, plays in Tehran’s strategy.

Over the years, Iran combined its nuclear progress with building up Hezbollah’s long-range capabilities. Iran armed the terror organization with or financed the acquisition of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles; some with the range, payload and accuracy to hit key Israeli strategic targets, including the Dimona nuclear reactor in the south of the country. It also trained Hezbollah operatives in the use of the weapons systems it supplied.

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