The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced last week that the military would conduct “mobilization exercises” through July 1 in the Gomel region, which shares a border with Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated the day before that it saw “no signs of preparations for an offensive with Belarus,” according to Ukrinform. The announcement of mobilization exercises, however, coupled with the bellicose rhetoric from Lukashenko, seems to suggest such an operation is possible.
Belarus has not formally declared war against Ukraine, nor has Russia. But the Lukashenko government has aided the Kremlin by serving as a staging ground for the Russian military in the lead up to and during the war.
Belarus borders Ukraine’s Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Russian forces launched initial thrusts toward Kyiv and Chernihiv through Belarusian territory at the war’s outset.
Such missile positions have allowed for military action against Ukrainian targets far from the front lines, including the major western region of L’viv, which also shares a border with Poland.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week met with defense officials and ordered a readiness check for exactly such an attack, per PRM Ukraine, indicating that the highest authorities in Kyiv remain wary of the prospect of a Belarusian intervention.
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