Thursday, April 3, 2025

Amir Tsarfati: Hamas May Have Overplayed Its Hand

Update From Amir Tsarfati: Hamas May Have Overplayed Its Hand


They say they are the victims. They say they only want peace. They say that they are being starved and are bereft of any humanitarian services. Israel begs, “Please, just give us our hostages.” Hamas loads their rifles and answers, “Well, I guess it’s not quite that bad.” Actually, that is the answer that they give to one another behind closed doors. It’s behind those same doors that they manufacture the false starvation and heath crises and then strategize to disseminate it to a favorable media. It’s also where they keep track the tons upon tons of Israeli and United Nations humanitarian aid, divvy it up amongst themselves, then set the prices for selling it to the Gazan people. It’s behind those doors where they plan how to manipulate world opinion so that they are able to wring out a moral victory from the brink of military defeat.

I’ve got to give Hamas credit. Their propaganda works. In America, 48% of 18–24-year-olds support Hamas over Israel. Terrorists have killed their thousands; TikTok its tens of thousands. But Hamas may have overplayed its hand. Gazans are tired of only receiving the crumbs from Hamas’s table. Local clans are starting to fight back, and people are getting killed.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues the IDF’s push into Gaza, and a call for the evacuation of Rafah has gone out. All of this is with an enthusiastic thumbs up from President Trump, who assures Israel’s military that they will have the weapons needed to get the job done. 

Netanyahu is still holding to his three-point end game: 1) Hamas will disarm, 2) its leaders will leave Gaza, and 3) the Gazan people will participate in voluntary migration. Already, interest in that third point is very high amongst the populace.

Lebanon

An airstrike Tuesday was part of a targeted killing that took out Hassan Ali Mahmoud Bdeir, an operator in Hezbollah’s Unit 3900 which is connected to Iran’s Quds Force. Bdeir was a terrorist plotter and was part of an imminent attempt by fellow terrorist group, Hamas, to down an Israeli airliner flying out of Cyprus. His assassination was part of the second major airstrike in Lebanon in under a week. On Friday, the Israeli Air Force hit targets outside of Beirut after rockets were fired a few days earlier from the area around Metula.

More internal voices in Lebanon are calling for the disarming of Hezbollah and the normalizing of relations with Israel. This is why I say that I have nothing against the Lebanese. Many of them are wonderful people. Sadly, their nation has been coopted by terrorists. Anti-Hezbollah sentiments are growing inside and outside the country. Tomorrow, US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus will meet with Lebanese officials in Beirut and insist that all Hezbollah connected members of the government be removed.

Syria

Right now, it’s hard to talk about Syria without also bringing up Turkey. President Erdoğan wants to become the new guardian of Syria as a major first step in his reupping of the Ottoman empire. In his mind, if anyone is going to watch over Sunni Islam, it should be the Turks. The problem is that Turkey is at its weakest point in modern history. They are still the sick man of Europe and are grasping at anything that might give them legitimacy. If they can get Syria, then they believe people will begin thinking, “You know, old Turkey may still have a little fight left in them.”

To this end, Erdoğan’s forces are moving south to try to control the Tiyas and the Palmyra airbases. Those locations would give them a major foothold in Syria. 

But as they move down, Israel is moving up as part of its goal of creating a cushion between the border and all the people who want to kill them. Many see that a conflict between Turkey and Israel is inevitable, unless President Trump can find a way to stop it. If Israel and Turkey do come to blows, it will be a very difficult situation since Turkey is a member of NATO.

Meanwhile, the IDF continues its strikes on any sites or soldiers in Syria that can be construed as detrimental to the future health of Israelis. That includes at least 21 strikes last night alone during which the airbase in Hama was obliterated. If you wonder why I may be so tired today, it’s because the take-offs and landings at the nearby airbase were non-stop through the night!

Yemen

Last night was wild in Yemen. The United States is done with playing around, not that they were taking it easy before. Significant progress had already been made dismantling the Houthi infrastructure with recent attacks. But last night was almost apocalyptic. There were American attacks in the Hodeidah region and the Port of Ras Isa. And a vehicle in the Sana’a region was hit in a targeted strike.

If we get the name of the target before this newsletter is released, I’ll include it. Because of the previous U.S. administration, the Houthis rebels felt emboldened to make their threats. “American ships better stay out of the Red Sea or we’ll blow you out of the water,” they warned. Now, these Yemeni terrorists are learning the hard way that if you fight with an American president who has the backbone to fight back, you will undoubtedly pay a high price.

Iran

The IAEA has announced that Iran’s store of 60% enriched uranium has doubled since its last report. That means that the Islamist regime now has enough of this critical component to create six nuclear devices. The only stage left is for the country’s leadership to decide they want to take that final step to enrich it to weapon’s grade, a task that could be accomplished for at least one bomb in as little as one week.

Why don’t they just go ahead and make the bomb? Because the country is a mess. Their economy is rock bottom, and the citizenry is very angry. A growing reformist movement is saying, “Just talk to the U.S.” The hardliners are responding, “We can’t talk to the U.S. They killed Soleimani; they are Satan.” So, talks have begun, but only indirectly.

Iran cannot have a bomb. The United States military has already sent a sizable contingent of long-range bombers to the area. It would only take two rounds of attacks from these planes to destroy Iran’s whole nuclear capability. Still, the U.S. is trying to negotiate, and Israel is giving leeway in hopes that talks are successful. But Netanyahu is determined that there will be no bomb in Iran, whether through negotiations, U.S. military strike, or an Israeli operation.

Attack on Conservatism

The liberal deep state is in panic mode and is lashing out wherever and at whomever they can reach. French populist opposition leader Marie Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling EU funds this past week and barred from running against the ruling party. This kind of lawfare prosecution can be found all over, from Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro to Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu to the O.G. of politically based prosecution Donald Trump. The judiciary in many countries has become weaponized, which is totally understandable. When the deep state’s chosen politicians are no longer in power, they must turn to their unelected and unremovable back up plan. We’ve seen this to a huge degree in Israel and America is witnessing a leftist judicial coup in its own government. This unconstitutional (in America’s case) takeover will lead to a global crisis. With the factions warring against one another, it will open the door for a single world leader to step in to bring unity. This fits perfectly with God’s plans for the soon-coming end times.


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