- Seven major U.S. grid operators warned Congress of an impending electricity capacity crisis, citing surging demand from data centers, AI, electrification and economic growth outpacing infrastructure development, threatening grid reliability.
- Rapid load growth — driven by data centers, electrification and extreme weather — is colliding with the accelerated retirement of dispatchable fossil fuel plants, creating a reliability mismatch, especially during peak winter periods.
- Transmission expansion plans (e.g., $30B in MISO, $6.9B in SPP) and interconnection queue reforms are underway, but backlogs (e.g., 253 GW in PJM’s queue) persist, while renewable additions fail to fully offset retiring thermal generation’s reliability attributes.
- Grid operators are implementing capacity market changes, seasonal procurement (ISO-NE) and tools like probabilistic risk modeling (MISO, ISO-NE) while urging temporary extensions for retiring dispatchable resources to prevent shortfalls.
- Operators emphasized the need for cross-state/federal collaboration to address structural gaps, warning that inaction risks blackouts, undermines decarbonization goals and jeopardizes national energy security.
On March 25, seven major U.S. grid operators testified before the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, raising a unified alarm about an impending capacity crunch. The nation's top grid officials warned that the rapid acceleration in electricity demand, driven by data centers, manufacturing and electrification, is outpacing the development of new power generation and transmission infrastructure. This imbalance poses a significant threat to the reliability of the U.S. power system. The hearing provided a stark warning: without urgent structural reforms, the ability to maintain reliable electric service could falter.
Each grid operator described a similar core tension: demand is rising quickly, driven by nontraditional and non-coincident factors, while the infrastructure needed to support it is being strained, delayed, or retired. The primary drivers of this demand growth include:
- Data Centers and AI: The proliferation of data centers, especially those supporting artificial intelligence, is a significant contributor. For example, PJM expects its summer peak to increase by nearly 47% over 15 years, driven largely by data centers.
- Electrification: The electrification of transportation, buildings and industrial processes is another major driver. ERCOT, for instance, projects a 20,000 MW increase in summer peak demand by 2030.
- Economic Growth: Regions like Texas are experiencing unprecedented economic and population growth, leading to record-breaking electricity demand.
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