A Frozen Eastern European Conflict Defrosts: Could this barely known region be the next Russia-NATO flashpoint?

A frozen Eastern European conflict defrosts: Could this barely known region be the next Russia-NATO flashpoint?

RT

Trasnistria is a small unrecognized republic, in Eastern Europe, which is internationally recognised as being part of Moldova. On February 28, local authorities convened the Congress of People’s Deputies from all levels of the Transnistrian Government, which was last held 18 years ago. 

Before the event, the press had discussed the possibility that the breakaway region could turn to Moscow with a request to accept it into the Russian Federation. However, despite various statements, the deputies only requested diplomatic assistance, in light of the fact that many Russian citizens reside in the region. The official statement emphasized help and mediation, not military assistance or the integration of the territory into Russia.

The deputies also addressed the UN, the OSCE, the Red Cross, and the European Parliament, requesting these organizations take into account the “inalienable rights of the Transnistrian people.” However, despite the peaceful character of these initiatives, Moldova responded with mobilization measures: it announced the registration of transport vehicles and their potential transfer to the army in the event of full-scale hostilities. 

Here explore what led to this new deterioration of relations between Moldova and Transnistria, why the breakaway republic remains a potential “hotspot,” and how Russia may help its compatriots in the midst of the armed conflict in Ukraine. 

The essence of the conflict 

Transnistria is sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. Since 1992, the territory has been an unrecognized de facto state, officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). All UN members, including Russia, officially consider it to be a part of Moldova

The population of the unrecognized republic is estimated to be around 465,000 people. Most residents consider Russian their native language, and many people have dual or even triple citizenship (Moldovan, Russian, and Ukrainian). 

The Transnistrian conflict is often referred to as “frozen,” since there have been no direct hostilities between Transnistria and Moldova since 1992. However, Moldova still insists that Russian peacekeepers should leave the region. For its part, Russia says that it is ready to withdraw troops and even help destroy the leftover weapons and ammunition, but only as soon as the two sides engage in constructive dialogue. 

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