Lake Mead Water Level Continues To Drop To Unprecedented Levels

Lake Mead water level continues to tank at unprecedented rates

Strange Sounds

Lake Mead is a reservoir is Nevada and Arizona, relied upon for example by the city of Las Vegas for drinking water. Last year, its water level was significantly lower than previous years. This year, it’s even lower.  This is dramatic…

Lake Mead fell about 7 feet in May. I expect June will likely be close to the same. Lake Mead is now way below 1,050 ft. in elevation, at which more than half of the turbines will not be able to fully work…

If water levels continue to drop, Hoover Dam would cease generating electricity when the water level falls below 950 feet (290 m) and the lake would stabilize at a level of 895 feet (273 m) when the water reaches the lowest water outlet of the dam.

Below 1,050 feet (bottom of the efficiency curve for the current turbines) more water is needed to produce an equivalent amount of electricity. Such low depths increase the rough zones for the turbines—the generating range in which vibration and cavitation threaten to damage the unit. At extremely low lake levels, like the ones Mead is fast approaching, those rough zones—which usually occur in a narrow production band at medium capacity—could expand to fill the entire generating range, making the turbines vulnerable at any speed. But this unprecedented scenario would be a mystery even to the staff of the Bureau of Reclamation, which operates the dam.

Below 950 feet it can’t generate electricity.Also, the amount of stored energy in the water is less when the water elevation is less, but don’t worry – we can always make up the difference simply by running more water through the generators. Everything is under control. Nothing to see here.

895 feet is deadpool elevation. Water will not flow past Hoover Dam. Arizona, California, and Mexico receive zero of their allocation. The entire Southwest and the US by proxy will collapse at that point.

Hoover Dam’s normal capacity is 2,074 megawatts, according to an email from the USBR. As of April 2022, it was sitting at around 1,500 megawatts — a decrease of around 25 percent. A normal year for the dam would see 4.5 billion kilowatt-hours produced. Last year, production decreased by 22 percent to 3.5 billion kilowatt-hours, the USBR said.

Since the water level is below 1050ft, I am sure the electricity production will also tank this year. Maybe another half or so…

Here’s another graph showing min and max water levels that goes back to 1935. Water levels started tanking around 2000…

It’s going to be the end half of this year that’s the key. If the levels don’t stabilize (they actually fell at the end of last year during the season when they would normally be increasing), then you’ve got about a year left before the city of Las Vegas runs dry.