By the spring of 2020, several major changes and tectonic shifts were happening in the region.
Turkey was becoming more powerful. It had ordered the US to leave parts of eastern Syria in October 2019 and launched invasions of parts of Syria, recruiting Syrian rebels to fight Kurds in Syria.
Iran was moving into southern Syria, via Iraq’s Al Qaim crossing. It was spreading its forces closer to the Golan. This was part of a plan to move precision-guided munitions and drones to Syria and confront Israel with the possibility of a multifront war. In addition, it had sent its Shahed 136 drones, or a close copy of them, to Yemen. These drones, in the hands of the Houthis or Iranian advisers led by Hassan Irloo, an IRGC-trained envoy, could threaten Israel. Irloo would not live to see the end of 2021. He died of mysterious causes in late December, evacuated by an Iraqi flight to Iran for burial.
Turkey and Iran were increasing their roles in places like Syria. In addition, Turkey and Russia were increasing their roles in places like Libya.
WHILE THIS was happening, Israel was confronted in May with a new war with Hamas. This came as prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued to try to cling to power.
Iran, exploiting this internal Israeli problem, sought to mobilize Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank. It also got Hamas to put out messaging to spread protests within Israel.
The war that broke out was scripted by Iran and included unique Iranian-designed tests to probe Israel for weaknesses. This included mass rocket barrages by Hamas of 140 rockets fired at a time to try to overwhelm Iron Dome. Israel was not overwhelmed, but Iran also helped Hamas acquire drones to strike at Israel.
The message was clear: Iran believed it could force a multifront war on Israel. Even if the Palestinians were defeated, it could create threats for Israel in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
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