Syrian and Russian military jets patrolled together on Monday near Syria’s border with Israel. The report comes as tensions in Ukraine are at a boiling point, with Western powers accusing Russia of plotting an invasion. The Russian joint patrols with Syria could become a regular event, Russia has indicated. The reports have come from Russia’s defense ministry and Interfax news agency.
This has ramifications for Israel and could impact Israel’s operations targeting Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah.
Israel has conducted a “campaign between the wars” which is used to prevent Iran from entrenching in Syria and moving weapons to Hezbollah. The Israel Defense Forces claim this is the term for the “IDF's prevention and influence approach for force employment short of war.” Much of this campaign is waged in the shadows, but former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot told the New York Times in 2019 that Israel struck thousands of targets in Syria. In 2017 then head of the Air Force Amir Eshel said that “when Israel has a vested interest, it acts irrespective of the risks.” Eshel is now Director-General of the Ministry of Defense.
The big question now is whether the air patrols Russia is embarking on are merely symbolic and will occur during the day as a show of force, or whether they are designed to actually send a message and potentially interfere with Israel’s actions.
It is known that the former US administration supported Israel’s actions in Syria. However, US officials also were concerned that Iran and its proxies in Iraq and Syria might attack US forces in retaliation for Israel's actions. In fact, back in 2018 Iranian factions in Iraq began to accuse the US of working with Israel, and also began to hint that Iraqi-based militias could target Israel. In 2021 Iranians attacked the US Tanf garrison in Syria, and US media reported that the Iranians acted in retaliation for Israeli strikes. In 2019 Iraqi militias also accused Israel of a series of airstrikes.
So what is going on? Russia’s Defense Ministry has clearly indicated the recent daytime patrol included an area near the Golan Heights. The ministry said the patrol flights "will continue to operate on a regular basis,” Reuters reported. "The mission route included the Golan Heights, the southern border of Syria, the Euphrates River and northern Syria," the statement said. "The Russian pilots took off from Khmeimim Air Base, while the Syrians took off from the Sayqal and Al-Dumayur bases near Damascus."
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