Although the war lasted only 12 days, it has shaken the regime in Tehran, which is now being forced to reshape its security doctrine and reassess its preparations for a strategic confrontation with Israel. Iran is rebuilding its missile program and extending the range of its missiles, promoting a rehabilitation and rearmament plan for Hezbollah, and senior regime figures are pressing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to authorize the development of nuclear weapons.
Nearly five months after Operation Rising Lion, the severity of the threat Israel poses to the Iranian regime has become deeply internalized. Despite the war's short duration, it rattled the Islamic Republic and compelled it to reconsider its national security strategy.
The war damaged not only Iran's missile and nuclear programs but also government and law enforcement institutions in Tehran. The regime is experiencing a trauma that it is trying to offset by repairing its image among the public. Yet this trauma is not driving Iranian leaders toward despair, at least for now. Instead, it has strengthened the motivation within the regime to revise its national security outlook.
Iran is therefore restoring its missile program, expanding missile ranges, advancing a long-term plan to rebuild and strengthen the Lebanese Hezbollah terrorist organization, and seeing growing internal pressure on Khamenei to authorize the development of nuclear weapons.
One prominent point in the regime's internal lessons-learned debate is the call by senior security analyst Mehdi Mohammadi to promote a multi-front massacre attack against Israel. Mohammadi, who also serves as an adviser to Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of the Majles and a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, published a post on November 1 in Iranian media arguing that conditions are ripe for such an offensive.
He wrote that in "Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Iran a new generation of resistance fighters has emerged, one that is bold and willing to pay any price in the fight against Israel."
Mohammadi added that this is a war of survival between Israel and Iran, which means the regime must "think in a more creative, large-scale and multidimensional way than it has over the past three decades."
His meaning was clear: a coordinated, multi-front massacre operation.
The headline of his article, "The next Octobers: the new nightmare of the Zionist regime" left little doubt about his intent. Last night he again pushed his call for a multi-front assault and urged the regime to prepare an operation in which every component of the resistance axis takes part together in a "decisive, prolonged and extensive battle." A limited confrontation, he warned, would not achieve the desired result because it only benefits Israel.
At the same time, Israel must prepare for the emerging threat and closely monitor possible preparations by the Iranian regime and the resistance axis for a multi-front strike.
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