Analysis: ‘Why wind & solar are the energy past, not future’

Analysis: ‘Why wind & solar are the energy past, not future’ – ‘Fossil fuels are the energy present, & nuclear power is likely the energy future’

Wind as an energy source had first been used for sailboats in Mesopotamia. Until the first windmills were invented by the Persians to grind grain and pump water between 500 and 900 A.D., wind energy was primarily used for transportation. Windmills became widespread in Europe in the 17th century, and approximately 200,000 windmills operated at the peak of the technology. Of course, the disadvantages of wind we experience today were still present back then. Because wind power cannot be stored, it was used primarily to mill grain into flour, pump water into livestock tanks, and saw lumber into boards. 

In fact, because wind energy was dependent on the weather and wasn’t reliable, horses were used as “backup” sources of power for milling grain during calm stretches in Europe, similar to how natural gas power plants “back up” wind turbines for generating electricity when the wind isn’t blowing on modern electricity grids. ... 

While each of the “renewable” energy sources above increased the human standard of living, they also had limited availability and reliability. It was the discovery and widespread use of coal that enabled humans to access vast supplies of reliable energy on demand and perform more work than ever before dreamed. This energy powered the industrial revolution. 

The widespread use of oil for lighting was short-lived, however, because, in 1882, Thomas Edison built his first commercial electricity plant, ushering in the era of electricity. When it comes to energy, nothing is as powerful, versatile, safe, easy to use, or clean as electricity. ... 

Unlike other forms of energy, electricity is not a primary source of energy by itself. Instead, electricity is a secondary source of energy that must be generated by converting primary energy sources (such as coal, natural gas, oil, uranium, water, solar, or wind energy) into electric power. 

Wind and solar don’t produce much power because they are unreliable and the exact opposite of energy-dense, requiring vast buildouts to produce only a small amount of electricity. As a result, they have an exceedingly low energy return on investment (EROI). ... 

In fact, if all the electricity you used for 70 years was generated at nuclear facilities, the amount of uranium used would fit inside a soda can. The high energy density of uranium is why nuclear power has the potential to someday generate electricity at a lower cost than fossil fuels and is why it is most likely the future of electricity generation. Unlike wind and solar, it produces carbon-dioxide-free electricity around the clock, so a grid powered by nuclear power won’t experience California-style blackouts.

Many people seem to think the future holds an inevitable shift away from fossil fuels toward solar panels and wind turbines, but this perception is incorrect. As California demonstrated in mid-August, these technologies are not up to the task of powering our lives, and pretending otherwise is both naive and dangerous.

California politicians spent decades passing legislation mandating ever-increasing amounts of wind and solar onto the electric grid. On August 14 and 15, 2020, these policies came back to bite them in a big way.

That weekend, more than two million Californians experienced rolling power outages during a record-breaking heatwave because there wasn’t enough electricity on the grid as the sun set, rendering the state’s solar panels useless for electricity generation.

The California politicians who patted themselves on the back for shuttering coal, nuclear, and natural gas power plants had killed off the sources of electricity that could’ve come in handy, ones that weren’t reliant upon the weather. The results were tragic but predictable. Thankfully, for the rest of America, similar results are preventable.

To help everyone understand why wind and solar are not the future, it helps to understand the history of energy. When we do, we find that solar and wind are the energy past, fossil fuels are the energy present, and nuclear power is likely the energy future.

The history below is an abridged version of our energy history, but if you’re interested in the long version, we suggest the book Energy and Civilization by Vaclav Smil.

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