Ever since the intense fighting started in Sudan on 15 April 2023, its capital Khartoum has been the epicenter of intense fighting. While official figures indicate over a few hundred dead, unofficial numbers are many times higher than that. In the last two weeks, government forces under Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are fighting with the paramilitary forces of the country who have since turned rebel as Rapid Support Force (RSF). Most of the foreign nationals and diplomats have been evacuated from Sudan and the country is now left at the mercy of these two warring factions.
While the fighting has plunged Sudan into massive chaos, one of the major concerns of the fighting was that the rebels have forcefully taken over the National Public Health Laboratory, one of the important centers for disease control and research on epidemics in Africa.
National Public Health Laboratory was established in 1992 and since then was instrumental in carrying out several research projects with the help of western funding. In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) started supporting it and enhanced its research capabilities to a very large extent. Today, it is one of the major research centers for pathogens in entire Africa. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this laboratory successfully carried out genome mapping, testing and research on COVID-19 virus.
So, when the rebel faction (RSF) has taken over the laboratory, expelled all of its staff and technicians and started using the laboratory building as a strong fighting base for themselves, there are certain nightmares which may haunt us in the near future. The situation is so tense that the WHO Chief himself has raised serious concerns of a biological hazard. Dr Nima Aabid Sayeed who is the WHO representative in Sudan expressed that due to various factors, one of the worst nightmares of a biohazard may come true. This event needs to be analyzed in detail and there are several factors to this hazard which cannot be ignored.
1. Huge stockpiles of pathogens: The laboratory has become one of the major research centers of WHO in recent years and hence there are large stocks of isolated pathogens which include polio, measles, Cholera, COVID, Ebola and many more. Although these pathogens were primarily kept there for research purposes some of the strains are new and have not been studied yet. Some of the samples are collected from distant places of Africa and the nature of their pathogenetic abilities are yet to be established. Under such circumstances, the situation is like a Damocles’ sword hanging over the world.
2. Safe keep of pathogens: There are two major factors due to which the safekeep of these pathogens are under threat. First and foremost is the absence of technicians who are expelled by the armed group occupying the laboratory while the second one is the absence of electricity to keep the pathogens in a controlled environment. Both the factors are essential and, in their absence, the chances of pathogens breaking out of the laboratory are very high.
3. Release of Pathogens in the outside environment: The pathogens can be released into the outside environment in many ways since there is no one to keep them safe. One threat is that the fighters staying in the building may get affected and when they move out, spread the disease in other areas. Second threat is that the rebel fighters may take out the samples and release it in the areas occupied by pro-government forces to secure their victory via means like artillery shells etc. Third threat is that in case pro-government forces resort to bomb the building or storm the building to flush out the rebels, pathogens may get leaked into the outside environment and lastly, the pathogens may get released themselves since there are no measures to keep them safe.
4. High risk of Infection: Due to ongoing civil war, Sudanese people are forced to stay in closed spaces. Some are in underground basements; some are occupying concrete buildings, and some have taken over community homes as their shelter. There is a serious shortage of water, food, or any other human need and under such circumstances, the risk of infection becomes much more severe. When people stay within congested places and use unhygienic measures, the rate of infection becomes ten times higher and that is another nightmarish situation.
5. Collapsed Health system: The entire healthcare system of Sudan has collapsed totally. Over 80% of hospitals are either destroyed or vacated due to ongoing war and wherever little healthcare support they have is taken over to treat injured people who are turning to these facilities in large numbers every day. Under such circumstances, if there is a biohazard or an epidemic spread in the country, Sudan’s present healthcare system will not be able to support it.
The situation is grim and Sudan is under the spotlight of the world. The 72-hours truce period is expiring today and there is no breather from this possible biohazard. The world is still recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and is in no position to handle another one. It is high time that the global powers should play their cards well to end the Sudan conflict and help the world recover from the fear of another biohazard.
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