Commentators on the Arab world are watching Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot with interest following media reports that he canceled an important meeting in Germany this week, and the reasons for his cancellation remain obscure.
They believe it is connected to developments on the northern border, and not specifically to the situation in Gaza following the renewal of Egyptian contacts with Israel and Hamas to advance the understandings for calm.
The Iranian leadership is sure that Israel is weak, and this is the right time to strike against it.
At the 32nd International Islamic Unity Conference, which took place in Tehran on Nov. 24, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei made the following statements about Israel:
The Zionist enemy crumpled against the Palestinian resistance after only two days. ... All this proves that the Zionist regime is significantly weakened. ... The pace of weakening is increasing.
Senior security sources in Israel are suspicious of secret activities by Gen. Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Lebanon, who is planning to inflame the northern sector against Israel in two ways:
Deploying Hezbollah and pro-Iranian forces close to the border fence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, with the assistance of local (Druze and pro-Iranian) elements, which, in exchange for financial payment, would construct terrorist infrastructure for attacks against Israel. These include laying mines and IEDs, firing anti-tank missiles at IDF patrols, and launching mortar attacks on Israeli communities in the Golan Heights.
Gen. Soleimani and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah prefer this option, instead of the attacks launched from southern Lebanon as it would neutralize Israel's possible counterstrike and the destruction of Lebanon's civilian infrastructure. Opening a new front against Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights would also divide IDF forces among several fronts.
The developments on the northern border are worrying. Israel's freedom of aerial action in Syrian airspace is limited following the incident when a Russian spy plane was brought down by a Syrian air defense system in September, 2018. Russia blames the Israeli air force for the interception.
The possibility that Israel will launch a military preemptive strike on the Hezbollah weapons factories in Lebanon, before they become operational, seems very far off, but not illogical.
Iran and Hezbollah constructed these factories after Israel managed methodically and over a period of time to destroy game-changing advanced weaponry being transferred in convoys from Iran to Lebanon.
With the weapons' destruction, Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani decided to construct the weapons factories inside Lebanon to prevent Israeli attacks.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday evening that Israeli efforts to destroy cross-border tunnels build by Hezbollah were “not an isolated operation, but a wide and ongoing operation” aimed at targeting a broader push by the Iran-backed terror group to capture parts of the Galilee from Israel.
“The aim of Hezbollah has been to dig tunnels into our territory. It is part of an effort with a breadth and depth that we have not seen before,” Netanyahu said during a televised address at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv.
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday called up a small number of reservists, as it prepared for a potential retaliation by Hezbollah in response to the operation to find and destroy cross-border attack tunnels the military says the terror group dug into Israeli territory.
Earlier, the military said it uncovered the “first of what are sure to be many” cross-border attack tunnels dug by Hezbollah, as part of its newly launched Operation Northern Shield. The tunnel was found south of the Israeli town of Metulla along the Lebanese border. The army said it was some 200 meters (650 feet) long, extending some 40 meters (120 feet) into Israeli territory.
The military said it believed the tunnels were for offensive purposes, unlike the tunnels and underground bunkers used by Hezbollah during the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which were primarily utilized as defensive measures.
Netanyahu said that the tunnel, and others like it, were part of a wider effort to “inflict great damage” to Israel and Israeli citizens.
“Capturing parts of the Galilee by Hezbollah is a concrete threat,” he said. “It is also part of a regional and global terror effort lead by Iran.”
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