Middle East Update Amir Tsarfati

Ceasefire, Fire, Ceasefire: Is This Finally The Time For Peace? Don’t Bet On It

Amir Tsarfati

Another week has gone by, and it appears that my country is back at war. Or maybe it isn’t. It’s so hard to tell these days. In one moment, we have a big celebration over the signing of a ceasefire agreement. We see our living hostages come home in a semi-timely manner, according to the agreed-to terms. The remains of our beloved deceased hostages also start coming in. They’re late and the delivery is sporadic, but at least it’s something.

The next thing I know, I’m reading about our soldiers being killed again in Gaza. I’m seeing the IDF retaliating against the terrorist aggression. Don’t get me wrong; I’m not surprised. Anyone with half a brain knew that Hamas couldn’t abide by any agreement that didn’t say, “Hamas gets everything and Israel is going to drown themselves into the sea.” But there was that flicker of hope hidden in the back of my brain somewhere behind an idea for my next book and my craving for another espresso that said, “Maybe, just maybe, this time the fighting will be over.” The five young children of Master Sergeant Yona Efraim Feldbaum, 27, who are now fatherless can attest to how ridiculous that thought was.

But wait, now the ceasefire is back on as of yesterday! Is this finally the time for peace? Of course not. I’m sorry, but the 20-Point Plan put out by the Trump administration is a joke. Although Hamas has agreed to it, they’ll never fully implement it. They’ll never disarm, as required by the agreement. They’ll never willingly step down from power as the plan mandates.

My only hope is in my understanding that both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump play chess, while the rest of the countries of the Middle East are still trying to figure out on which side of the board they should set up their checkers. Using pressure from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and other Muslim nations, Hamas was pressured into signing a deal they don’t have the character to keep. Now, when the terrorists inevitably break the deal and Israel retaliates with strong measures, these other nations are boxed into criticizing Hamas for not keeping the agreement that they themselves had helped to broker.

If that’s what’s really happening, then let me stand and give the President and the PM a respectful slow clap. If, instead, either of them actually believed that this 20-Point Plan would lead to peace, then I’m just going to stay seated and shake my head in disappointed wonder.

Ceasefire, Fire, Ceasefire

As I mentioned above, we are back in a state of ceasefire as of yesterday. Last week, I mentioned how Hamas snuck into Israeli Yellow Zones in Gaza to prepare attacks against IDF troops. Those attacks began, killing several IDF soldiers and wounding others. Israel struck back with a vengeance, as they were entitled to do, both by terms of the agreement and for morality’s sake.

After Yona Feldbaum’s death, more than 100 terrorists were killed in a 14-hour period of airstrikes. In addition, observation posts, weapons production warehouses, launch posts, underground tunnels, and mortar shell firing posts were all hit.

President Trump endorsed Israel’s retaliation, saying, “They took out an Israeli soldier. So the Israelis hit back, and they should hit back.” We have now returned to a state of ceasefire. We’ll see how long Hamas lets it last.

The Bigger Picture of the Middle East

When Trump affirmed Israel’s right to retaliate against Hamas, he added a very important sentence that could easily go unnoticed. He said, “You have to understand Hamas is a very small part of peace in the Middle East, and they have to behave.” Most people believe this fracas is all about Israel and Hamas, but it’s really about much more.

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, IMEC, is a visionary plan that will revolutionize commerce from India to Europe. Essentially, it is a trade route that begins in India and crosses the Arabian Sea to the United Arab Emirate. From there, it begins a rail and/or road journey that goes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and into Israel, where it arrives in Haifa. At that point, the goods are put on ships and transported to Europe. Using this method will increase the speed of transportation between India and the West by 40 percent.

This new transportation system is the ultimate goal, and it is a financial boon to all countries involved. Hamas needs to understand that if it in any way interferes with the construction and operation of this proposed route, the countries will ensure the cessation of its existence. When you follow the money in Europe and the Middle East, the Gazan terrorists are on the wrong side of the equation.

Hezbollah Has Got to Go

Time is running out for the Lebanese government to save their country. Even as Israel is conducting air attacks against Hezbollah in the south, Iran is rearming the terrorist group in the north so they can eventually move south to the Israeli border. Unfortunately, Lebanon’s government is militarily weak, even to the point of running out of explosives in its efforts to blow up Hezbollah’s arms caches. The country is at a tipping point of either breaking free of Hezbollah’s grip or caving in to it. If the Lebanese leadership does not end the terrorist stranglehold on their nation, other countries will be forced to step in.

Unfortunately, the lion’s share of the work of destroying Hezbollah will fall on the shoulders of the Israeli military.

Overnight, IDF troops snuck into Lebanon, going about a kilometer across the border to the village of Blida. Once there, a firefight ensued, and a Hezbollah operative was killed. The troops then retreated back into Israel.

In response, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun said, “I have instructed our army to resist any Israeli attack on the liberated areas of the south to protect our lands and our citizens.” According to the IDF, a suspect was spotted in a building used by Hezbollah and the force moved to arrest him. Gunfire took place, and the target was killed. We’ll watch to see if this incident escalates.

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Putin Boasts ‘Huge Success’ in Poseidon Nuclear Drone Test as Trump Warns: “End the War, Not Test Missiles”

Putin Boasts ‘Huge Success’ in Poseidon Nuclear Drone Test as Trump Warns: “End the War, Not Test Missiles”

Emmitt Barry

• Russia tests its Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone, which Putin calls “a tremendous success.”
• The weapon can reportedly travel 6,200 miles underwater and deliver a 2-megaton nuclear payload.
• Putin also confirms progress on the Burevestnik nuclear cruise missile, claiming “unlimited range.”
• The tests come as the New START arms treaty nears expiration in 2026.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a “tremendous success” in testing the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone, hailing it as a revolutionary leap in Russia’s strategic weapons program. The test marks the first full launch from a submarine with its onboard nuclear reactor activated — a step Putin said no other nation has achieved.

“For the first time, we managed not only to launch it with a launch engine from a carrier submarine, but also to launch the nuclear power unit on which this device passed a certain amount of time,” Putin said Wednesday. “There is nothing like this.”

He added that the Poseidon’s destructive capability “significantly exceeds the power of even our most promising Sarmat intercontinental-range missile,” also known as the SATAN II.

According to Russian state media, the Poseidon test took place on Oct. 28 while Putin was visiting wounded soldiers in a Moscow military hospital. Western officials have not independently verified the launch.

The Poseidon–known to NATO as “Status-6” or “Kanyon”–is a massive nuclear-powered torpedo measuring over 65 feet long and weighing about 100 tons. Its compact nuclear reactor reportedly allows it to travel up to 6,200 miles underwater at speeds as high as 100 knots (115 mph), far faster than conventional submarines or torpedoes.

Russian analysts claim Poseidon can lurk on the ocean floor for months before activation and carry a warhead of up to 2 megatons–over 100 times the strength of the Hiroshima bomb. Some reports suggest it could generate radioactive tidal waves capable of destroying entire coastal cities or naval bases.

Parallel Test: The Burevestnik Missile

Putin’s remarks follow another recent Russian weapons test–the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile–which Moscow says can fly indefinitely and evade all known missile defenses. Russia claims the missile flew more than 8,700 miles in its latest test on Oct. 21.

The Kremlin insists both systems are part of a defensive modernization effort, but Western analysts see them as symbolic provocations amid growing nuclear tensions.

Trump: “We’re Not Playing Games With Them Either”

Responding to Russia’s weapons demonstrations, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Oct. 27 that Putin “should end the war in Ukraine, not test missiles.”

“We have a nuclear submarine right off their coast–it doesn’t have to go 8,000 miles,” Trump said. “We’re not playing games with them either.”

He added that instead of unveiling new weapons, Putin “ought to get the war ended–a war that should have taken one week is now in its fourth year.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later said the Burevestnik test “should not further strain relations” between Moscow and Washington, claiming that relations were “already at a minimum.”

Escalation in Ukraine

As Russia touts its nuclear arsenal, its forces have stepped up operations in eastern Ukraine, claiming gains near the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. Putin recently boasted that Russian troops had captured nearly 5,000 square kilometers of territory since the start of the year–a claim Kyiv rejects.

The tests also come as the New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms agreement between the U.S. and Russia, is set to expire on Feb. 5, 2026, raising fears that the two largest nuclear powers may soon face each other without any binding weapons limits for the first time in decades.

Rumors Of War:

Kremlin vows response if US violates nuclear moratorium

RT

Russia will respond “accordingly” if the US violates a moratorium on testing nuclear weapons, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said he had ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing, citing strategic competition with Russia and China. “That process will begin immediately” in response to “other countries’ testing programs,” he said.

When asked about the issue by journalists later in the day, Peskov noted “the statement by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, which has been repeated many times, that, of course, if someone abandons the moratorium [on nuclear testing], then Russia will act accordingly.”

“The US is a sovereign country and has every right to make sovereign decisions,” he stressed.

Responding to Trump’s claims of other countries carrying out nuclear tests, Peskov said “we are so far not aware of this.”

“If it is about Burevestnik, then it is not a nuclear test,” he insisted. “All nations are developing their defense systems, but this is not a nuclear test.”

The Burevestnik is a new Russian state-of-the-art nuclear-capable cruise missile, powered by a small nuclear reactor that gives it a virtually unlimited range. The Russian military successfully tested the missile last week.

Washington test-fired an unarmed, nuclear-capable Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile in February and launched four Trident II missiles from a submarine in September.

Russia last tested a nuclear weapon during the Soviet period in 1990. The US halted its testing in 1992 under a Congress-mandated moratorium.

According to a recent estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the US has 5,177 nuclear warheads, Russia has 5,459, and China is projected to reach 1,500 by 2035.

President Trump Calls For The Pentagon To Conduct Nuclear Weapons Testing IMMEDIATELY, Says He Has “No Choice”

President Trump Calls For The Pentagon To Conduct Nuclear Weapons Testing IMMEDIATELY, Says He Has “No Choice”

Anthony

President Trump has made it clear as the Commander in Chief he will ensure the U.S. military will be prepared for any situation under his leadership.

On Wednesday night, Trump in a post on Truth Social announced he has ordered the Department of War to start testing its nuclear weapons

Trump stated he had “no choice” but to make the decision after other countries such as Russia have began testing their nuclear arsenals.

Fox News reported more on Trump’s recent decision to conduct monthly nuclear tests:President Donald Trump announced that he has ordered the United States to resume nuclear weapons testing “immediately,” saying he directed the Department of War to match other nations’ programs. He called the move a necessary step to maintain global parity.

Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday night: “The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office.”

“Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years,” Trump said. “Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”

Trump made the comments during a conversation with reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday morning, saying the U.S. is “not playing games” with Putin.

“Russia said this week that they’ve tested a new missile that can go more than 8,000 miles. Is that saber-rattling for you? What is that?” a reporter asked.

Read Trump’s full post below:

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Trump’s announcement comes days after Russia testing one of its nuclear submarines, per BBC:

Russia has tested the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, Moscow’s top general has said.

“We have launched a multi-hour flight of a nuclear-powered missile and it covered a 14,000km (8,700-mile) distance, which is not the limit,” Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov told President Vladimir Putin in a televised meeting.

The low-flying experimental weapon, first announced in 2018, has been hailed as having a potentially unlimited range and the ability to evade missile defences.

Western experts have previously cast doubt over missile’s strategic value and Russian claims of having successfully tested it.

Putin said a “final successful test” of the weapon had been held in 2023, but the claim could not be independently verified. Of at least 13 known tests, only two had partial success since 2016, according to an arms control campaign group.

Gen Gerasimov said the missile was in the air for 15 hours during the test on 21 October.

He said the missile’s vertical and horizontal manoevreing were tested and were found to be up to specification, according to Russia’s Tass news agency.

“Therefore, it demonstrated high capabilities to bypass missile and air defence systems,” Tass reported Gen Gerasimov as saying.

The missile’s utility has been the subject of intense debate in military and defences circles since it was first announced in 2018.

A 2021 report by the US Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center concluded: “A nuclear-powered cruise missile would give Russia a unique weapon with intercontinental range capability.”

Apocalypse Jamaica: Widespread Devastation After Hurricane

Apocalypse Jamaica: New images show widespread devastation across the island following Hurricane Melissa

IMOGEN GARFINKEL 

Hurricane Melissa has wreaked devastation across Jamaica, decimating homes and infrastructure and leaving thousands of tourists stranded.

The strongest storm to strike the Caribbean island in modern history, the hurricane sustained winds that peaked at 185 miles (nearly 300 kilometers) per hour while drenching the nation with torrential rain.

Apocalyptic new images show hollowed-out buildings, trees torn over and entire towns leveled by the ferocious top-level storm that unleashed flash flooding and mudslides.Three-quarters of the island nation had no electricity overnight while many parts of Jamaica's western side are submerged under water.

The category five storm destroyed up to 90 per cent of roofs in the southwest coastal community of Black River, said Prime Minister Andrew Holness, where scores of hospitals, libraries and police stations have been obliterated.

The mammoth hurricane left a trail of destruction throughout the Caribbean, starting in Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon before tearing through Cuba with 150 mph winds and wreaking havoc on Haiti.

By Wednesday night, Melissa had battered the southeast of the Bahamas and is gearing up to pass by Bermuda on Thursday.

At least five people are confirmed to have died in the St Elizabeth area on the southwest coast of Jamaica, while the death toll reached 25 in Haiti on Wednesday night.

In the north coast parish of St. Ann, almost all residents are without power - and many of them woke up without a roof over their heads after Hurricane Melissa tore through Jamaica, downing trees, utility poles and anything in its path.

Fisherman George 'Larry' Brown of the community of Priory said the morning was quiet on the day of the storm.

'Just a little rain', the 68-year-old recalled.

But by 5.00pm (2200 GMT) on Tuesday, the rain and wind gusts grew heavy and soon, he said, his roof peeled away.

'I just heard a sound, and it just started to tear off,' Brown recalled.

He described Melissa as the worst he's ever experienced.

'Gilbert is no match to this,' Brown said, referring to the 1988 hurricane used by many Jamaicans as a benchmark for devastation.

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