New Russian Threat To Israel: SA-5 Missiles Will Be Fired Into Central Israel If IAF Air Strikes Continue

Russia and Syria threaten to fire SA-5 missiles into central Israel if IAF air strikes continue

A new Russian threat was received in Israel on Wednesday, Dec. 26: Any more air strikes and Syria’s SA-5 air defense missiles will be fired deep into Israel – like the one that shook several towns on Tuesday night in the middle of an IAF attack on Iranian sites in Syria. 

Israel’s air defense system missed the intruding missile; it exploded harmlessly in an unpopulated part of Mt. Carmel. By issuing this threat, Moscow confirmed that the Syrian missile was aimed deliberately at the Israeli heartland, and was not a stray from the attacks on Israeli aircraft, as some Israeli officials have claimed.

People living in the towns of Hadera, Caesarea, Or Akiva, Zichon Yacov and Binyamina reported that their houses shook under the blast and for many hours the air reeked of gunpowder. A quarter of a million Israeli civilians were affected. That would be a mild foretaste of what is to come if the Russians carry out their threat of payback for any more Israeli air strikes over Syria. And that was a single SA-5 missile. The impact of five or 10 fired by a Syrian battery does not bear thinking of.

The SA-5 (Russian coded S-200) is elderly but it has a very long range, medium-to-high altitude surface-to-air capacity, can function in all weathers and can be used to hit ground targets as well as aircraft and missiles. DEBKAfile’s military sources note that the Russians indicated that Syria would not launch a surface missile offensive against Israel but would employ a tit-for-tat strategy, countering Israeli air strikes over Syrian air space with missile attacks over Israeli air space. There was no indication of whether Israeli air attacks mounted from Lebanese skies were included in the threat.

This warning from Moscow and Damascus prompted an Israeli official to confirm for the first time early Thursday, Dec, 27, that the IAF had struck several Iranian targets in three main locations – primarily storage and logistics facilities used by Iran to ship weapons to Hezbollah – and also destroyed a Syrian anti-aircraft battery that fired at the Israeli jets. The official did not elaborate, but the battery was the one that had fired the SA-5 into central Israel This disclosure embodied Israel’s counter-threat.

Our military sources also reveal that the three targets attacked in Syria were the command center of the Syrian army’s 10th Division at Qatana, its Dimat base and the 4th Division’s compound in Saboura, which houses Iranian Revolutionary Guards weapons and ammunition stores laid in for arming the five militias Iran is building in Syria for a long-term presence.

The Depression Of 2019 - 2021?

The Depression Of 2019-2021?

Submitted by Brendan Brown, the Head of Economic Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International via Mises.org

The profound question which transcends all this day-to-day market drama over the holidays is the nature of the economic slowdown now occurring globally. This slowdown can be seen both inside and outside the US. In reviewing the laboratory of history — especially those experiments featuring severe asset inflation, unaccompanied by high official estimates of consumer price inflation — three possible “echoes” deserve attention in coming weeks and months. (History echoes rather than repeats!)

Will We Learn from History — And What Will Soon Be History?

The behavioral finance theorists tell us that which echo sounds and which outcome occurs is more obvious in hindsight than to anyone in real time. As Daniel Kahneman writes (in Thinking Fast and Slow):

The core of hindsight bias is that we believe we understand the past, which implies the future should also be knowable; but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do – compelling narratives foster an illusion of inevitability; but no such story can include the myriad of events that would have caused a different outcome .

Whichever historical echo turns out to be loudest as the Great Monetary Inflation of 2011-18 enters its late dangerous phase.  Whether we're looking at 1927-9, 1930-3, or 1937-8, the story will seem obvious in retrospect, at least according to skilled narrators. 

There may be competing narratives about these events — even decades into the future, just as there still are today about each of the above mentioned episodes. Even today, the Austrian School, the Keynesians, and the monetarists, all tell very different historical narratives and the weight of evidence has not knocked out any of these competitors in the popular imagination.

The Stories We Tell Ourselves Are Important

And while on the subject of behavioral finance’s perspectives on potential historical echoes and actual market outcomes, we should consider Robert Shiller’s insights into story-telling (in “Irrational Exuberance”):

Speculative feedback loops that are in effect naturally occurring Ponzi schemes do arise from time to time without the contrivance of a fraudulent manager. Even if there is no manipulator fabricating false stories and deliberately deceiving investors in the aggregate stock market, tales about the market are everywhere….. The path of a naturally occurring Ponzi scheme – if we may call speculative bubbles that – will be more irregular and less dramatic since there is no direct manipulation but the path may sometimes resemble that of a Ponzi scheme when it is supported by naturally occurring stories.

Bottom line: great asset inflations (although the term "inflation" remains foreign to Shiller!) are populated by “naturally occurring Ponzi schemes,” with the most extreme and blatant including Dutch tulips, Tokyo golf clubs, Iceland credits, and Bitcoins; the less extreme but much more economically important episodes in recent history include financial equities in 2003-6 or the FANMGs in 2015-18; and perhaps the biggest in this cycle could yet be private equity.

It is troubling that the third possible echo — that of the Great Depression of 1930-2 — could be the most likely to occur.

The Great Depression from a US perspective was two back-to-back recessions; first the severe recession of autumn 1929 to mid-1931; and then the immediate onset of an even more devastating downturn from summer 1931 to summer 1932 (then extended by the huge uncertainty related to the incoming Roosevelt Administration and its gold policy). It was the global credit meltdown — the unwinding of the credit bubble of the 1920s most importantly as regards the giant lending boom into Germany — which triggered that second recession and snuffed out a putative recovery in mid-1931.

It is possible to imagine such a two-stage process in the present instance.

Equity market tumble accompanies a pull-back of consumer and investment spending in coming quarters. The financial sector and credit quakes come later as collateral values plummet and exposures come into view. In the early 1930s the epicentre of the credit collapse was middle Europe (most of all Germany); today Europe would also be central, but we should also factor in Asia (and of course China in particular).

And there is much scenario-building around the topics of ugly political and geo-political developments that could add to the woes of the global downturn. Indeed profound shock developments are well within the normal range of probabilistic vision in the UK, France and Germany — a subject for another day. And such vision should also encompass China.

Growing Poverty Of Political Debate

The Growing Poverty of Political Debate

• The European Union, too, is clearly on the decline. Despite Pollyannish talk of creating a European army and closer ties among member states, the EU has lost much of its original appeal and faces fissiparous challenges of which the so-called Brexit is one early example. I believe that the only way for the EU to survive, let alone prosper, is to recast itself as a club of nation-states rather than a substitute for them.
  
  
• Another significant trend concerns the virtual collapse of almost all political parties across the globe. Within the year now ending, a number of mostly new parties forced their ways into the center of power in several European countries notably Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Holland and Sweden. Interestingly, the more ideological a party is, the more vulnerable it is to the current trend of decline in party politics. This is why virtually all Communist and nationalist parties have either disappeared or been reduced to a shadow of their past glory.
  
  
• The massive development of cyberspace has given single-issue politics an unexpected boost. Today, almost anyone anywhere in the word could create his or her own echo-chamber around a pet subject. Here, the aim is to fight for one's difference with as much passion as possible.That trend is in contrast with another trend, promoted by the traditional, or mainstream media, offering a uniform narrative of events. Turn on any TV or radio channel and go through almost any newspaper and you will be surprised by how they all say the same thing about what is going on.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  The first trend represents a growing global disaffection with international organizations to the benefit of the traditional nation-state. Supporters of the status quo regard that trend as an upsurge of populism and judge it as a setback for human progress whatever that means.
  
  
  Today it is not the United Nations alone that is reduced to a backseat driver on key issues of international life. Its many tentacles, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, too, have been reduced to a shadow of their past glory. In the 1990s, the two outfits held sway on the economies of more than 80 countries across the globe with a mixture of ideology and credit injection. Today, however, they are reduced to cheer-leading or name-calling from the ringside.
  
  
  The European Union, too, is clearly on the decline. Despite Pollyannish talk of creating a European army and closer ties among member states, the EU has lost much of its original appeal and faces fissiparous challenges of which the so-called Brexit is one early example. I believe that the only way for the EU to survive, let alone prosper, is to recast itself as a club of nation-states rather than a substitute for them.
  
  
  Another significant trend concerns the virtual collapse of almost all political parties across the globe. Even in the United States and Great Britain, which have the oldest and most solidly established tradition of party politics, the system has been severely shaken.
  
  
  In the US the Democrat Party has morphed into a hodgepodge of groups from crypto-Marxists to bleeding-heart liberals held together by little more than their common hatred for President Donald J Trump. For its part, the Republican Party, first shaken by the so-called Tea Party, has been reduced to second fiddle for the Trumpist "revolution".
  
  
  In Great Britain, Brexit has divided the two main parties, Conservative and Labour, into three factions that could, in time, morph into separate parties. For at least two centuries, Britain's power was mainly based on the stability of its institutions and the ability of its political elite to meet every challenge with a firm attachment to the rule of law plus moderation. All that edifice has been shaken by Brexit.
  
  
  In France and Italy, insurrectionary parties have wrested power away from the traditional ones. In France, the Gaullist and Socialist parties that governed the country for seven decades have been pushed to the sidelines by the République En Marche movement of Emmanuel Macron which, in turn, is now shaken by the "Yellow Vests" insurrectionary outfit.
  
  
  In Italy, too, all traditional parties, have been driven off stage by populist groupings of both left and right.
  
  In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland(AFD) has cut across the left-right divide to win a leading role in national politics. Even a well-established regional party such as Christian Social Union (CSU) is now in decline in its home-base of Bavaria.
  
  
  Within the year now ending, a number of mostly new parties forced their ways into the center of power in several European countries notably Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Holland and Sweden.
  
  
  
  
  Turn on any TV or radio channel and go through almost any newspaper and you will be surprised by how they all say the same thing about what is going on. Thanks to a sharp decline in field reporting, mostly caused by financial constraints, mainstream media today have to depend on a narrow compass provided by a few agencies and/or "citizen" journalists.
  
  
  That, in turn, encourages the growing belief that facts are nothing but opinions expressed in the manner of shibboleths.
  
  
  All that leads to an impoverishment of political debate. The weakening of political parties, trade unions, international organs, and institutions like parliaments that provided platforms for debate and decision-making, has deprived many societies of both a space and a mechanism for the battle of ideas and the competition among different policy options.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Persecution In Turkey - The War On Christian Missionaries

Turkey's War on Christian Missionaries

by Uzay Bulut

• American Pastor Andrew Brunson and American-Canadian evangelist David Byle are among many Christian clerics who have fallen victim to Turkey's aversion to Christianity. According to Claire Evans, regional manager of the organization International Christian Concern, "Turkey is making it increasingly clear that there is no room for Christianity, even though the constitution states otherwise."
  
  
• Today, only around 0.2% of Turkey's population of nearly 80 million is Christian. The 1913-1923 Christian genocide across Ottoman Turkey and the 1955 anti-Greek pogrom in Istanbul are some of the most important events that largely led to the destruction of the country's ancient Christian community. Yet, still today in Turkey, Christian missionaries and citizens continue to be oppressed.
  
  
• "One issue that differentiates Turkey from the rest of the world is that our national identity is primarily shaped by religious identity. What makes a Turk a Turk is not so much due to ethnicity, or the language people speak, but is primarily about being Muslim... A large majority of Turkish people think there is nothing in ‎their history that they should be ashamed of. [They] don't feel close to Europe or to the Middle East; they basically feel close to only themselves... one striking fact is that we [asked] if everybody would be a Turk, would the world be a better place, and Turks gave a very high rating. No self-criticism whatsoever." — Professor Ali Çarkoğlu of Koç University, who conducted a survey on nationalism with Professor Ersin Kalaycıoğlu of Sabancı University.
  
  
  
  

The day after American pastor Andrew Brunson was released from Turkish prison, another Christian who had been living for nearly two decades in the country was detained by Turkish authorities, and told that he had two weeks to leave the country -- without his wife and three children. The American-Canadian evangelist, David Byle, not only suffered several detentions and interrogations over the years, but he had been targeted for deportation on three occasions. Each time, he was saved by court rulings. This time, however, he was unable to prevent banishment, and left the country after two days in a detention center.

Brunson and Byle are among many Christian clerics who have fallen victim to Turkey's aversion to Christianity. In its annual Human Rights Violations Reports, published since 2009, Turkey's Association of Protestant Churches details Turkey's systematic discrimination against Protestants, including verbal and physical attacks; nor does the Turkish government recognize the Protestant community as a "legal entity," denying it the right to freely establish and maintain places of worship.

Franklin Graham Banned From Facebook

The Conservative Purge Continues: Christian Leader Franklin Graham Suspended from Facebook Over 2016 Post!

Facebook has been shutting down traffic to conservative websites since the 2016 election.

Facebook eliminated at least 1.5 billion links to conservative articles since 2017.  If you add additional websites like The Gateway Pundit, Infowars, Young Cons, Right Wing News, etc. the number tops 2 billion easy.  It is Facebook’s gift to the Democrat Party. Facebook will never allow conservatives to use their platform as a channel of free expression. Several top conservative websites from the 2016 election are no longer in existence. And Republicans mostly ignored this purge of conservative content.

And it’s not just conservative political websites. Top American Christian leader Franklin Graham has now been banned from posting on Facebook.
He’s too controversial.

The Daily Caller reported:

Reverend Franklin Graham says that he was banned from Facebook pursuant to a more than two-year-old post in support of North Carolina’s House Bill 2, which mandated that citizens use the bathroom that corresponds with their biological sex.

The bill was signed into law in 2016 and was considered by many to be bigoted — and it provoked a wave of corporate boycotts targeting the state. It’s not clear which specific post got Graham banned, but the evangelist has been outspoken in support of that bill and of other similar pieces of legislation.

On Friday, Graham railed against Facebook’s alleged ‘censorship,’ of conservatives and Christians.

Last week I was banned from posting on @Facebook for 24 hrs because of a 2016 post about NC’s House Bill 2 (bathroom bill). They said the post went against their “community standards on hate speech.” Facebook is making & changing the rules. 1/2 https://t.co/HYIgErnp3J

— Franklin Graham (@Franklin_Graham) December 29, 2018

Facebook apologizes for banning evangelist Franklin Graham for 24 hours

Facebook is apologizing to evangelist Franklin Grahamfor banning him from posting on the site for 24 hours last week, a Facebook spokesperson told The Charlotte Observer on Saturday.

It was a mistake to ban Graham over a 2016 post he made on the site, and a mistake to have taken down the post, the spokesperson said.

Facebook has restored the 2016 post and will apologize in a note to the administrator of Graham’s Facebook page, according to the Facebook spokesperson, who agreed to speak only on background, meaning without the spokesperson’s name.

A member of Facebook’s content review team -- the team has 15,000 members -- had mistakenly decided the post violated Facebook’s policy that bans “dehumanizing language” and excluding people based on sexual orientation, race and other factors, according to the spokesperson and Facebook’s written policy.

“Why?” Graham asked in a Facebook post on Friday after he said he was banned from posting anything on the site for 24 hours last week. “Because of a post from back in 2016 about North Carolina’s House Bill 2 (the bathroom bill). Facebook said the post went against their ‘community standards on hate speech.’ Facebook is trying to define truth.”

Franklin Graham

on Friday

Well, now we know. Facebook has a secret rulebook for policing speech. I was banned from posting on Facebook last week for 24 hours. Why? Because of a post from back in 2016 about North Carolina’s House Bill 2 (the bathroom bill). Facebook said the post went against their “community standards on hate speech.” Facebook is trying to define truth. There was a character in a movie a few years back who said, “The truth is what I say it is!” That’s what Facebook is trying to do. They’re making the rules and changing the rules. Truth is truth. God made the rules and His Word is truth. Actually, Facebook is censoring free speech. The free exchange of ideas is part of our country’s DNA.
Since Facebook took down the 2016 post last week, I’ll copy it here so you can read it for yourself. Do you see any hate speech here? 

April 9, 2016--- “Bruce Springsteen, a long-time gay rights activist, has cancelled his North Carolina concert. He says the NC law #HB2 to prevent men from being able to use women's restrooms and locker rooms is going "backwards instead of forwards." Well, to be honest, we need to go back! Back to God. Back to respecting and honoring His commands. Back to common sense. Mr. Springsteen, a nation embracing sin and bowing at the feet of godless secularism and political correctness is not progress. I’m thankful North Carolina has a governor, Pat McCrory, and a lieutenant governor, Dan Forest, and legislators who put the safety of our women and children first! HB2 protects the safety and privacy of women and children and preserves the human rights of millions of faith-based citizens of this state.”
A news link to a Washington Post article was also shared with the post.

Graham’s Friday post included his 2016 post that he said Facebook “took down” last week. “Do you see any hate speech here?” Graham asked.

Graham’s post Friday drew a combined 75,000 likes and “angry-face” and “wow” emojis by Saturday afternoon, along with nearly 38,500 shares and 8,400 comments. The response was overwhelmingly in Graham’s favor; the Observer searched nearly a thousand of the comments by Saturday afternoon and found none opposed to his remarks.

“Facebook has no business worrying about religious convictions,” Bonnie Reichert posted in a typical comment on Graham’s page.

“Facebook has no right banning anything,” posted Kenan Lott. “If they keep it up someone will start a new better version for the people.”