If we have already created entities that are willing to lie to us, how long will it be before they are capable of taking actions that are even more harmful to us?
Nobody expects artificial intelligence to kill all of us tomorrow.
Many researchers steeped in these issues, including myself, expect that the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die.
Not as in “maybe possibly some remote chance,” but as in “that is the obvious thing that would happen.”
That is a very powerful statement.
All over the world, AI models are continually becoming more powerful.
According to Yudkowsky, once someone builds an AI model that is too powerful, “every single member of the human species and all biological life on Earth dies shortly thereafter”…
To visualize a hostile superhuman AI, don’t imagine a lifeless book-smart thinker dwelling inside the internet and sending ill-intentioned emails. Visualize an entire alien civilization, thinking at millions of times human speeds, initially confined to computers—in a world of creatures that are, from its perspective, very stupid and very slow. A sufficiently intelligent AI won’t stay confined to computers for long. In today’s world you can email DNA strings to laboratories that will produce proteins on demand, allowing an AI initially confined to the internet to build artificial life forms or bootstrap straight to postbiological molecular manufacturing.
If somebody builds a too-powerful AI, under present conditions, I expect that every single member of the human species and all biological life on Earth dies shortly thereafter.
So what is the solution?
Yudkowsky believes that we need to shut down all AI development immediately…
Shut it all down.
We are not ready. We are not on track to be significantly readier in the foreseeable future. If we go ahead on this everyone will die, including children who did not choose this and did not do anything wrong.
Of course that isn’t going to happen.
In fact, Vice-President J.D. Vance recently stated that it would be unwise to even pause AI development because we are in an “arms race” with China…
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