ARIEL KAHANA/JNS.ORG
"History won't end after a strike on Iran," says a foreign diplomat. His brief statement effectively summarizes numerous discussions and complex dilemmas faced by many people in multiple countries right now.
On one hand, action against Iran isn't a question of if, simply because no other option remains. On the other hand, we're not talking about one bombing run and we're done, as the military challenge is substantial with implications and effects far beyond a localized confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Let's start with the conclusion: Very little time remains to address Iran's nuclear program.
The Islamic Republic is placing its underground nuclear infrastructure so deep that even the American bunker-busting bomb will eventually be unable to penetrate it. "It will be so deep that conventional weapons won't be able to do the job," in the diplomat's words.
Meanwhile, the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency determined that, "if Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium [90% enrichment] instead of the current 60%, it could do so quickly ... and create enough stockpile to produce four to five nuclear weapons within about one month," as summarized by the Institute for Science and International Security based on the IAEA findings.
As is widely known, Iran's nuclear infrastructure is scattered throughout the vast country. This means "hit and run" scenarios involving a small number of aircraft, like those executed by the Israeli Air Force in Iraq in 1981 or Syria in 2007, are irrelevant. Against multiple sites, some of which are underground, many more aircraft would be needed, possibly in multiple waves of attacks.
How many? Zohar Palti, who has filled numerous key security positions, claimed in Nadav Perry's podcast that the United States is capable of neutralizing Iran's nuclear program in eight hours, but an American source I spoke with believes this estimate is too optimistic. According to the source, the question is how much damage one wants to inflict on the Iranian project.
Second, there are likely softening and preparation operations needed before the eight hours of striking the system itself.
Therefore, according to this source, the Americans would need two days to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. Either way, even if eight hours is sufficient for the Americans, the Israeli Air Force, lacking the bombs they possess, would need much more time.
Furthermore, a strike on Iran wouldn't begin and end with Israeli Air Force sorties, but would require such extensive regional preparations that they couldn't be concealed. This means Israel could send and return aircraft alone and by surprise, but both Israeli and American officials doubt the feasibility of such an attack.
First, because if Israel wanted to achieve surprise, the American detection and warning system would quickly discover Israeli activity. Indeed, if we don't update CENTCOM in advance, there could even be friction between our aircraft and their American counterparts.
Second, even if the Americans don't participate in the actual strike, it would be very advantageous for Israel to receive real-time defensive assistance from President Donald Trump.
Reports in American media claimed that during Israel's operation in Iran last fall, American forces stood ready to rescue our pilots if, God forbid, any were shot down over Iranian skies. Additionally, Iran could respond in real time by firing missiles at Israel, at American bases in the region, or at U.S. allies. And of course, Iran might respond later, and indeed has threatened to do so if the worst happens from its perspective--the destruction of its nuclear project.
Although Israel significantly damaged Iran's missile array, the ayatollahs still have quite a few left. They aren't resting on their laurels either, and according to international media reports, a Chinese ship carrying fuel used for cruise missiles recently docked in Iran. Additionally, the Houthis in Yemen are fully engaged, as are militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Yes, the organization has suffered a severe blow, but it still retains numerous capabilities.
In other words, action in Iran could ignite areas much more extensive than a missile war between Jerusalem and Tehran. To minimize the damage from such a development, a regional defensive deployment is needed, more extensive than the one in which the international coalition prepared to thwart previous Iranian attacks on Israel. On those two occasions, only Israel was bombed. The coalition's defense greatly minimized Iran's effectiveness.
This time, even if Israel strikes alone, Iran promises to retaliate throughout the region. Therefore, a regional defensive setup is required, led by the U.S. of course. Its preparation takes weeks, and that can't be hidden either. So in any case and scenario, advance coordination with the Americans seems necessary.
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