“Ukraine’s invasion (of Kursk) was a major strategic blunder, which will accelerate its defeat. The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty-exchange ratio, not capturing territory, which Western commentators obsess over.
“The casualty-exchange ratio in the Kursk offensive decisively favors Russia for two reasons. First, it has caused relatively few Russian casualties because Ukraine’s army effectively overran undefended territory. Second, once alerted to the attack, Moscow quickly brought massive airpower to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were in the open and easy to strike. Unsurprisingly, the attacking forces lost many soldiers and a huge proportion of their equipment.
“To make matters worse, Kyiv removed top-notch combat units from the front lines in eastern Ukraine — where they are desperately needed — and made them part of the Kursk strike force. This move is tilting the already lopsided casualty-exchange ratio on that critically important front further in Russia’s favor. It is no wonder — given what a foolish idea the Kursk incursion is — that the Russians were caught by surprise.”
1 comment:
The fact that this invasion was able to take place seems to be a blunder on the part of either the Russian military or Putin. With today’s satellite imagery allowing an unnoticed buildup of an invading force and subsequent invasion is a major lack of intelligence or decision. Not the first time Putin has made tactical blunders. The rogue invasion a few years back again was a leadership blunder. This entire slow walking invasion of Ukraine is an episode of incompetence. Seems the entire global leadership in every country at this moment in time is inept. It is a terrible scripted B movie with terrible tasting overpriced refreshments.
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