The famous Pentagon and US government-linked think tank RAND Corporation has finally attempted to inject some rare realism into the Washington establishment's thinking and planning regarding the Ukraine war. So far throughout eleven months of conflict which remains largely stalemated, though the last few days have seen Russian military momentum and advance grow in the Bakhmut offensive, US and NATO officials have unhesitatingly and enthusiastically cheered on every major escalation of the West's involvement.
But the new 32-page RAND document has sounded the alarm over the dangers of this approach, which is unusual given the think tank is notorious for being the hawkish academic arm of the military-industrial complex. This was especially the case in the Vietnam war era, when RAND became infamous for its fueling the policy behind various insurgency and counterinsurgency fiascos in Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.
RAND now argues that in Ukraine "US interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict," and that "costs and risks of a long war...outweigh the possible benefits."
The policy document lays out that allowing the conflict extend longer, which we should note the Biden administration has almost guaranteed with its decision this past week to supply advanced battle tanks, is itself a severe danger.
The abstract on the introductory page reads as follows:
The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war's duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely.
The study additionally concludes of ongoing efforts to punish Russia economically and militarily that
"further incremental weakening [of Russia] is arguably no longer as significant a benefit for US interests." Alternately it warns that the impact on energy markets and food in the at-all-costs drive of "keeping the Ukrainian state economically solvent" may not be worth it, given these costs will only "multiply over time."
2 comments:
Opinion on Conflict Yonder
Interesting Article!! There are so many layers to this current crisis as has been or is being reputed. So, some historians have indicated Putin probably chose this time to attack believing the given state of the USA? USA although backing the Feds, advanced technology, NATO, being known as all powerful, etc., still are looking weaker than usual, IMO! So, divided within, and not in good form to advance with interfering Russia's stance, viola we are compromised once again with conflict yonder, and wondering why, right?
USA has provided fire arms, weaponry, equipment, drones, Intel, money, for backing the Ukrainians Counter-defense against Russia's invasions with Ukrainians trying to move back the Russian invasion, as reputed. Now it's up to Ukraine whether to negotiate with talks, continue their strategy, or other means for continuing a possible win; USA is involved now, Russia has been deprived of certain needed technology, and possibility exist Putin's Military Brass won't go through with orders nuke wise given they have a two key decision when releasing codes..as reputed, right? Also nuke fallout could risk blow back into territory Putin covets. This might not deter other means to use weaponry localized containing chemical or other nastiness targeting areas within Ukraine by Russia, IMO! Then would USA do a Harry Truman or bleed out Asymmetric warfare, or withdraw, or what? Just stop ignoring American Citizen’s needs during indecisions, IMO!
So lots of Pentagon Brass, whomever, watching Russia closely, and not knowing whether this will be a short-lived conflict, or drawn out due to factors unfolding, IMO! Other countries envy/hate, and greatly admire the USA's strength simultaneously, thus not fully onboard to help as much sometimes, IMO! Bottom-line, when comes to doing business Globally with USA, they want to continue, even laundering their money, as reputed, even Ukraine saga has been corrupted, right or wrong?
USA spread itself too thin with outsourcing jobs, giving out or having sold/had stolen, our coveted technology or resources, instead of keeping their own people doing the jobs, kept secrets/resources, right here, IMO! Peace through extreme strength SUSTAINED probably would have avoided the whole mess; remember under Trump building our Military up, this never occurred, Putin knew better, IMO! USA being so divided, and continued doing business with Communist China has weakened the USA, in my opinion! So Putin knows, we have problems at home with our lack of leadership, weaken/corrupted policies now, and going along with many hurtful economically con narratives from WEF rhetoric, IMO! No one can even talk sense well with Putin apparently, but we might recall, Trump could, and did! Fake MSM convinced us many did not like policies under Trump, bet many sure did, so who told those lies to begin with for propaganda usage, what enemies within?
This is what happens when divided we became with lacking term limits enforced, lack of great Leadership, wokeism stroked by those that seek to undermine our resolve, etc...In my opinion; we get into quagmires, and this is an example of being attacked spiritual by evil consequences from many removing GOD in our equation from our continued blessings. Most Americans are praying for great outcomes for Ukraine, for USA, hope Russia gets a clue, for the world, because enough is enough, we must rebuke this evil!!! Come together in America, USA's blessings is what made USA the “Great” example to the world, and to remain greatly blessed, may God Bless America!
Wouldn't take all my words previously, sorry so many, but had to add last paragraph, and feel purged of thoughts for said informative Article:
“IMO” is needed to allow whomever aware, this is an opinion comment only, so tis my opinion, there is still NO excuse for high food, high gas prices, and there is plentiful resources available at that; so we all have a stake in conflicts that arise compromising the masses while some folks out there plan to profit from all this BS, in my opinion! Greed is man’s downfall, and jealousy is USA’s worse enemy, both within, and abroad, since no over-sight like in the past on illegal entry from enemies, as reputed! We need to go back to the Drawing Board and do what worked for real, (laws), not blindly tolerate, nor accept some fake con-pushed sustainable crock of @@#4, right?? Love words, the words are, “God has a Plan!!!”
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