Energy Apocalypse Update V
As the pressure builds and the first closures begin, Germany is entering an economic recession, and there are everyday renewed cracks in the political edifice. Minister President of Saxony Michael Kretschmer (CDU) – no fringe political figure – recently remarked that Germany “cannot do without Russian gas” and acknowledged that EU sanctions are to blame for the shortage, but he stopped short of demanding that Nord Stream 2 be opened; instead, he hopes for a return to Russian gas after the Ukraine war has ended.
UPDATE: The Danish Maritime Authority reports a drop in pressure in the undersea Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with gas bubbles appearing near the Baltic island of Bornholm, the site of the apparent rupture. The pipe had been filled with gas following its completion in November 2021, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to certify its operation, and so it has remained out of service. Many conspiracy theories are possible here, in what will very likely turn out to be an act of sabotage.
Berlin suspects the leak that caused Nord Stream to lose pressure may not be a coincidence
While the loss of pressure in three natural gas pipelines between Russia and Germany is still officially being investigated, Berlin is reportedly no longer convinced it was a coincidence, and suspects a “targeted attack” on behalf of either Ukraine or Russia, the newspaper Tagesspiegel reported on Monday evening.
Pressure in one of the Nord Stream 2 lines dropped sharply overnight, followed by the same happening to both Nord Stream 1 pipes on Monday afternoon. Denmark announced that a gas leak was spotted off the coast of Bornholm island in the Baltic Sea and closed the area for maritime traffic, but could not confirm if this was what caused the pressure loss.
According to Tagesspiegel, the German government and agencies investigating the incident “can’t imagine a scenario that isn’t a targeted attack,” according to an anonymous source familiar with their assessments. “Everything speaks against a coincidence.”
The outlet explained that a deliberate attack on the bottom of the sea has to involve special forces, navy divers or a submarine. Berlin is reportedly examining two possible scenarios. In the first, Ukraine or “Ukraine-affiliated forces” could be behind the attack. The second option is that Russia did it as a “false flag,” to make Ukraine look bad and drive the EU energy prices even higher.
With Nord Stream offline since late August, Russian gas can only be delivered to Germany and central Europe via the older pipelines going through Poland and Ukraine, Tagesspiegel noted.
Swedish broadcaster SVT reported that the Swedish National Seismic Network detected two underwater explosions near the Nord Stream pipeline system on Monday.
"One of the explosions had a magnitude of 2.3, and was registered at as many as 30 measuring stations in southern Sweden," SVT said.
Bjorn Lund, a professor in seismology and director of the Swedish National Seismic Network, said these two seismic events were explosions.
Here's a map of the three leaks on the Nord Stream pipeline system.
Swedish daily newspaper Aftonbaldet quoted the Swedish Defense Force's chief of operations, Michael Claesson, who said it's not ruled out that there's a connection to the gas leaks and Russia's mobilization last week.
Claesson then told the paper that the incident was a "military matter."
Danish Defense Forces published the first images of the gas leaks from the Nord Stream pipeline system near the exclusive economic zone southeast of Bornholm island, according to the Swedish daily newspaper Aftonbaldet.
The first images show a large surface area of gas bubbles in the Baltic Sea.
Another leak was reported by the Danish Defense Forces to be 1 kilometer in diameter on the surface water.
EU officials suspect the pipelines were sabotaged.
Denmark is tightening security around all energy assets as some European officials speculate the NS pipeline system was sabotaged.
The plot thickens about what caused damage to three lines of the Nord Stream gas-pipeline system under the Baltic Sea to Europe as some European officials now suspect sabotage.
Nord Stream AG, the operator of the NS pipeline system, published a statement Tuesday that read, "the destruction that happened within one day at three lines of the Nord Stream pipeline system is unprecedented ... and impossible now to estimate the timeframe for restoring operations of the gas shipment infrastructure."
On Monday, NS2 gas pipeline and two NS1 lines reported rapid pressure drops, with gas leaks reported by Swedish and Danish authorities in the Baltic Sea near the exclusive economic zone southeast of Bornholm island.
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