Morgan Wright is the Chief Security Advisor for SentinelOne, Senior Fellow at The Center for Digital Government, and a former Senior Adviser for the US State Department Antiterrorism Assistance Program.
Imagine - it's winter. Heating oil prices are rising. Low temperatures are forecast for the next few days.
You turn on your television and hear the first reports of a massive cyberattack against America's largest pipeline.
Ransomware has infected the company's computer system, bringing operations to a halt as IT staff work feverishly to stop the spread.
The situation quickly escalates over the next 48 hours, causing the president to declare a state of emergency.
Gas stations up and down the east coast run out of fuel within hours. Airlines delay and cancel flights.
The first signs of panic set in. Drivers hoard all the available remaining fuel and fight over their places in the gas line. The company can't give a definite date when operations will resume.
Prices spike all over the United States as fears of a broader cyberattack linger, despite assurances from the Department of Homeland Security.
Now realize - this isn't Hollywood or a tabletop exercise.
In April of 2021, this same series of events unfolded after a Russian-based ransomware gang infiltrated Colonial Pipeline.
One week later a ransom note popped up on a control room computer screen and the pipeline operations were completely shut down for the first time in 57 years.
Five days later operations resumed. But the damage would take several months and millions of dollars to fix.
As Russia invades Ukraine and America responds with sanctions the world faces the possibility of a new Cold War.
Predictably, the Kremlin has vowed to retaliate against the countermeasures deployed against them by the West.
We must consider what a modern version of a cold war would look like. It will look far different than the last.
In guarding against a future cold war, it would be foolish to dismiss any scenario as 'unimaginable.' The world is entering uncharted territory.
The Colonial pipeline attack was the first visible attack on critical infrastructure. It was no longer invisible bits and bytes, but dollars and cents and long gas lines.
The next attack on a pipeline could be accompanied by a similar attack on the energy grid.
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