The 11 U.S. states that did not impose lockdowns over the fall and winter in response to the coronavirus have faired better than states that did, an analysis of public data shows.
The U.K.-based website Lockdown Sceptics noted that the models one year ago predicting that nations, regions and states that didn't impose lockdowns would face overrun hospitals and massive death tolls compared to those that did lock down turned out to be wrong.
It was a model published by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College of London forecasting 2.2 million American deaths from COVID-19 that prompted President Trump to initiate the "15 days to slow the spread." White House coronavirus advisers Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx presented the study to Trump, urging drastic action.
But the website presented a chart that shows the COVID death toll per million people by state, with the no-lockdown states in red.
"If the doomsday models are correct, why don’t the bars for those states clearly stand out from the bars of the lockdown states in blue?" the website asks. "Furthermore, why are the top five states for Covid deaths lockdown states?
The analysis found the lockdown states on average had 5.6% more deaths than the no-lockdown states
"If anything this suggests lockdown made things worse," the site said. "At any rate, there’s no sign it helped.
"Isn't it time the lockdown proponents put their models to the test in the real world?" the website asks. "Time to put up or shut up. Either their models can reproduce the outcomes of real states which don’t lock down, or they can’t and need to be fundamentally revised. No more hiding behind counterfactuals of “it would have happened but for lockdown”. The facts are here and waiting to be explained.
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