2019 was a volatile year of fever-pitch politics, flamboyant rhetoric, culture wars and narrowly missed actual wars. By the looks of it, 2020 is set to crank it all up even further. Here are RT’s top predictions for the new year.
Arms race: A new generation of weapons unleashed
Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer writing on international security and arms control and non-proliferation:
Russia and the US find themselves on the cusp of a new arms race that is as unnecessary as it is dangerous. The legacy of Cold War arms control agreements born of the previous arms race between the US and Soviet Union has been deconstructed by successive US presidential administrations, leaving only the Obama-era New START agreement in place. But this treaty, which places restrictions on the size and composition of Russian and US strategic nuclear forces, is scheduled to expire in early 2021.
President Trump has criticized the treaty as advantageous to Russia and has indicated he would rather negotiate a new treaty which also covers China’s strategic nuclear force. There isn’t time to negotiate a new treaty before the existing New START agreement expires, setting both the US and Russia on course to develop and deploy a new generation of strategic nuclear weapons without any controls or limitations.
Middle East: Iran on the brink of war
Darius Shahtahmasebi, legal and political analyst focused on US foreign policy in the Middle East, Asia and Pacific region:
Iran will be one of the most ominous theaters in the Middle East to keep an eye on in 2020. Just on December 29, the US struck five facilities in Iraq and Syria linked to Iranian-backed militia. While delivering the strikes, the US gave a stark warning that the superpower will take “additional action” necessary for self-defense and “deter further behavior from militia groups or from Iran.” Right until the end of 2019, the US continued to ramp up its maximum pressure campaign against Tehran through the use of its targeted sanctions regime and continues to deliver very elaborate threats against Iran. Furthermore, the possibility of a war between Israel and Iran becomes ever more real.
With Iran-hawks such as John Bolton out of the picture, it is unclear whether or not the US will launch a strike against Iran in 2020. As President Trump seeks to be re-elected in the new year, a hot war with Iran may be the last thing on his mind. However, the tit-for-tats and multiple accusations levied against Iran, namely that it has been targeting US forces and major allies in the region, will also raise the specter that 2020 is likely to result in a noteworthy conflict at some stage involving Iran. Be sure to keep an eye on developments in Iran as the new year ticks away.
Russia: Turning to Asia, wary of the West
Bryan MacDonald, Irish journalist based in Russia:
Russia’s pivot to Asia will continue. In 2018, the value of Russia-China trade passed $100 million. And that’s only going to grow. The new “Power of Siberia” pipeline, and a massive €11 billion ($12.4 billion) gas processing plant project in the Far East, will further drive it.
Relations with the EU depend on a) whether Angela Merkel lasts the year (and who replaces her if she doesn’t); and b) how determined Emmanuel Macron will be in pursuing his plans to bring Russia “back to Europe (sic).”
The almost complete silence of the EU when the US pulled out of the INF Treaty was bizarre, given that Western and Central Europe has so much to lose from any renewed arms race, as was the incredibly feeble German response to US sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Moscow sees the EU as a US vassal, unable to make its own foreign policy. And Berlin’s reaction will only confirm that belief.
Everyone will hope for peace in eastern Ukraine. Russia would like to improve relations with the EU, and put an end to (at least some) sanctions. But whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is strong enough, and able to resist US pressure, in order to deliver Kiev’s side of any bargain is a real unknown.
The Kremlin will probably try to keep the US at arm’s length, fully aware that the “Russia scare” will be used to discredit presidential candidates who threaten the interests of wealthy liberals who control the mainstream media there.
At home, barring some unexpected global shock, Russian economic growth should pick up. Watch the ruble this year. An under-reported story has been its rise in 2019 (especially against the euro). It may well make further gains.
India: War of Indianness 2.0 & a possible surprise with China
Abhijit Majumder, senior Indian journalist who has been the editor of national dailies like Mid Day, Hindustan Times (Delhi and NCR editions) and Mail Today:
As nationalists push harder for their 2020 vision of India, the pushback from the old, ‘liberal’ Nehruvian establishment will be fiercer this year.
After passing the Citizenship Amendment Act to shelter persecuted minorities from Muslim-majority Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, the Narendra Modi government is now aiming for a more stringent and updated National Population Register and thereafter a nationwide National Register of Citizens. All this to weed out illegal immigrants mainly from Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Other widely anticipated political earthquakes next year are a two-child policy, and a Uniform Civil Code (which the Indian Constitution advises), dissolving any religion-based personal law.
Frosty India-China relations may spring a warm surprise in 2020, with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Modi designating it the ‘Year of India-China Cultural and People to People Exchanges.’
EU: Learning to live without Britain
Neil Clark, journalist, writer, broadcaster and award-winning blogger:
One of the most cogent arguments for supporting Brexit, from a genuinely internationalist viewpoint, was that without Britain, the EU would go in a better direction, certainly in regards to its foreign policy. The UK, where neocon influence in the establishment remains very strong, even after Iraq and Libya, urged the EU to lift its arms embargo on Syrian ‘rebels’ and has also been the most hawkish of the major EU powers on sanctioning Russia. The downside of Brexit, from a Brussels perspective, is that the third largest net contributor to the EU budget is leaving, so that hole in the finances will have to be covered after the transition period ends. The EU faces a challenging year, but predictions of a total collapse are likely to be proven wrong again: the EU is simply too big to fail. Paradoxically, Brexit could help it in the medium- or long-term, especially if it leads to the economically suicidal sanctions on Russia (calculated to have cost the EU €30 billion ($33.7 billion) in October 2017) being substantially eased or lifted.
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